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----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, September 21, 2002 8:58 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> I neglected to make one other important point relevant to the original
> comparison to Japan. Japan is, in many ways in similar shape to where the
US
> was in the late 20's with a large manufacturing base and trade surplus. To
> my knowledge, no country in the past several hundred years has entered a
> market/economic decline with an economy based on services! Services tend
to
> be far more discretionary than basic manufacturing and I believe that the
> potential exists for a much larger economic hit than the US incurred
during
> the Great Depression.
>
> Earl,
I would tend to agree with you except for one thing, the rule of
alternation. Due to the rule of alternation, the current post bubble era is
more likely to echo the 1873 - 1896 period than the post 1929 period. That
means we can expect a longer but somewhat shallower depressionary period
with a series of boomlets and succeding busts. A good proxy for this is the
current bust of the telecommunications and airline industries which closely
parrallel the experience of the railroads of the post 1873 period. The good
news is that with the right strategy and discipline, one can actually get
rich in this enviorment ala Andrew Canegie. This type of enviroment is
actually good for those able and willing to take advantage and trade the
short term economic swings. It is bad for those with a long term buy and
hold strategy. Both Carnegie and the Rothschilds amassed huge fortunes by
correctly trading the 3-4 year business cycle. So, I see the coming years
as great for disciplined traders and bad for the idiot bubble riders of the
past 20 years.
Regards,
Norman
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 4:20 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
>
>
> > During the Great Depression, unemployment was 25%+- ... the flip side is
> > that 75%+- were employed. I do think that several critical distinctions
> are
> > missed in comparisons:
> >
> > 1) When the markets peaked in 1929, the US was a net creditor nation
with
> > very large reserves. When the market peaked in 2000, the US was a net
> debtor
> > nation with a huge and growing trade deficit.
> >
> > 2) Even more important, when the markets peaked in the 1929, the US had
a
> > large and vibrant manufacturing base which dominated the national
economy.
> > When the markets peaked in 2000, the US economy was service based with
> most
> > of the manufacturing moved off-shore.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 3:06 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> >
> >
> > > What you're saying about Japan is correct. Tokyo is hustlin' and
> > > bustlin'. But I've read that even during the Great Depression,
> > > things were relatively OK in the major cities here.
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Joe Duffy" <joeduffy@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Additionally many here seem to think Japan has been in this decade
> > > long
> > > > depression. The reality as I hear it is life goes on quite well
> > > there, at
> > > > least from talking to people who work there --- and that goes for
> > > the
> > > > nationals not just the ex-pats in the banking industry I know.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 12:35 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Your use of the word 'panic' followed in another message by
> > > extensive
> > > > > use of caps leads me to believe you have an opinion. If there is
> > > > > anything I have learned from lurking on this list over the years,
> > > it is
> > > > > to not have a strong opinion, because it makes it emotionally
> > > difficult
> > > > > to trade.
> > > > >
> > > > > You also seem to place a lot of meaning on the shape of the yield
> > > curve,
> > > > > and seem to think that the US economy is heading into a situation
> > > like
> > > > > Japan. The deep decline in Japan's market can be attributed to a
> > > real
> > > > > estate bubble that greatly exaggerated the valuation of 'blue
> > > chip'
> > > > > companies in that market. It has taken a decade and more to wash
> > > that
> > > > > overvaluation out of that market, and there is still a state of
> > > denial
> > > > > in the banking sector there. The US is not in a situation
> > > anything like
> > > > > what happened in Japan. While there may still be too much
> > > optimism in
> > > > > stocks prices in the US today, I don't see any historical
> > > similarity
> > > > > except the overall level of interest rates. The size of the
> > > bubble in
> > > > > both real estate and the stock market was much greater than
> > > anything
> > > > > present so far in the US economy.
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards
> > > > > DanG
> > > > >
> > > > > "M. Simms" wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > NO WAY !!! IF SO, HELLO JA-PAN !!! HELLO "DEAD FLAT YIELD
> > > CURVE".....
> > > > > > JAPAN ECONOMY DEJA VUE....
> > > > > > and the experts are saying "IT CAN'T HAPPEN, IT CAN'T
> > > HAPPEN" !!!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Does this spell the death of capitalism ?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > From: profitok [mailto:profitok@x...]
> > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:31 PM
> > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > Cc: gannsghost@xxxx
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > we STILL have much more to go on the upside,,
> > > > > > > June 2003 contract to reach 119 by 3 2003
> > > > > > > Ben
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: "RealtradersList" <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:09 PM
> > > > > > > Subject: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Is that correct ?
> > > > > > > > In that case we could start approaching that Japan-like
> > > yield
> > > > > > > curve where
> > > > > > > > everything flattens out between a rate of zero and 2
> > > percent.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Beware of a Fed INTRADAY rate cut in case of a market
> > > panic !
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
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> > > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
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> > > > > >
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> > > > > >
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> > > > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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