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Did the US have a choice in its conversion? It was convert or die. The
manufacturing went elsewhere because they could do it just as good and a lot
cheaper. The only other alternative we had was to become isolationists again
and ban imports. Our agriculture is going the same way right now. Garlic
is coming in from China at 1/2 the price it can be produced for in the US.
The same with oranges, grapefruit and other citrus from Australia and South
America. Are the grain markets in the same shape? Brazil, Australia, and
other countries are producing product for less. How long can a subsidy
last? Where is our vaunted fishing fleet. Are there any American flag
vessels left afloat, outside of the Navy and coast guard. Do we produce
shoes or clothing any more? We still have a thriving wine industry.
I have a question. Who does the service industry service? We have banks
that lend money to foreign countries that don't repay the loans. We have
computer companies that import all of the parts they assemble here. So we
did save those high paying assembly line jobs. The fast food restaurants
are expanding overseas instead of in the US so those high paying service
jobs at Wendy's and McD aren't going to shrink the unemployment rolls. The
banks can now lose money in insurance, brokerage and other non banking
endeavors. Even the federal government is sending our armaments for
production overseas.
Were is the talent coming from to operate the high tech companies? That
talent is coming from oversees. We can't even produce an intelligent work
force. There is one ever expanding area of the economy. Tattoo parlors and
body piercing salons are popping up all over. Now there is a real future
for your kids. Am I missing something here? Ira
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, September 21, 2002 4:54 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Service vs Manufacturing economy
> Gary, do you have a URL for that article, sure would like to read the
whole
> thing?
>
> I have long believed that true economic strength is built upon a strong
and
> resilient manufacturing base. I have also been saying for many years that
> the US would suffer deeply in the next recession/depression for having
> converted to a service based economy.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Gary Funck" <gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, September 21, 2002 3:23 PM
> Subject: RE: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
>
>
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Daniel Goncharoff [mailto:thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Saturday, September 21, 2002 9:37 AM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > >
> > >
> > > I think there are two sides to this point. Isn't a service-based
economy
> > > more flexible than one based on large factories? It may mean that
> > > changes come more easily, and that new industries can develop using
the
> > > excess information-based labor from weaker sectors.
> > >
> > > In this respect, telecoms will be a good real-life example. It will be
> > > interesting to see what happens to all the people getting laid off by
> > > the telecoms firms that won't be growing for several years. If they
end
> > > up having no place to go, that would indicate your believe is
validated.
> > > If they find new jobs in a similar field, I think the economic hit
will
> > > not be very big at all.
> > >
> >
> > In this week's Business Week, there's a rather disturbing article that
> refutes
> > the theory that a service based economy should be more resilient.
Excerpts
> > below:
> >
> > SEPTEMBER 30, 2002
> >
> > NEWS: ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY
> >
> > The Educated Unemployed
> > The jobless rate for managers and professionals is likely to rise
> >
> > [...]
> > Here's why joblessness is likely to rise: Across the board, companies
are
> > facing an unholy trio of low profits, weak demand, and falling
> prices--with no
> > relief in sight. Revenues for the companies in the Standard & Poor's
> 500-stock
> > index are down 2% over the past year, adding to the pressure on
businesses
> to
> > cut costs by cutting workforces. At the same time, productivity is
soaring
> at a
> > rapid clip--a 6% gain over last year at nonfinancial corporations.
That's
> > allowing businesses to meet flat demand with fewer workers.
> >
> > Even more distressing, some of the sectors where the job market has
stayed
> > relatively strong--including health, education, finance, and retailing,
> which
> > together make up about 40% of the total workforce--are showing signs of
> > cracking. And the already grim labor picture in the airline, energy,
> > technology, telecom, and media sectors--some 7% of the workforce--keeps
> > deteriorating.
> > [...]
> > This is the dark side of the productivity boom. During the second half
of
> the
> > 1990s, output per worker rose, but soaring demand and revenues, driven
in
> part
> > by the technology and telecom boom, helped boost hiring and push down
the
> > unemployment rate below 4%. Wages and bonuses soared, and it seemed like
a
> > golden age for workers.
> >
> > But rising productivity without rising demand is a recipe for
disappearing
> > jobs. If companies can't raise prices, the only way they can boost
profits
> is
> > to cut workers--and higher productivity makes that possible.
> > [...]
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
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>
>
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