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RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update



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Earl, See attached.....
have I properly marked the "A-B-C" pattern you have explained below ?
It does seem like a good possibility.
And the "C" nicely coincides with the upcoming November election.
And would really be a nasty surprise for the bears !!
Alas, as most "C" waves go, it won't last for long.....

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 11:22 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
>
>
> This is certainly a very dicey period in which to trade, however here is
> what I see.
>
> Daily: I don't put much credence in the count here, but it's
> instructive to
> analyze the information provided. Price failed to reach the important left
> pivot high at 996 during the initial phase of its thrust ... generally a
> sign of weakness. Also of note is the fact that the "W.4" has deeply
> penetrated the W.4 blue/green/red channels ... an indication of probable
> failure for the "W.5". The decline from the high had a choice of two
> possible paths, 4x1 or 2x1, and chose the steeper of the two.
> Also worthy of
> note ... if I force AGet to use long term counts, it labels the
> high at 966
> as "W.4" and shows an extremely low PTI for the projected W.5
> decline. This
> suggests that the 771 (W.3) low will hold for the next several weeks.
>
> Hourly: a decent impulsive count down which broke under the bear channel
> during w.3 and has now completed a nice W.4 rally pattern. AGet projects a
> minimum W.5 at 845+-. Also in play are two other patterns of note. The
> bullish pattern is a possible island reversal which would be
> confirmed by a
> move higher. The bearish pattern is the inverse cup and handle which
> projects to 819.
>
> Conclusion: I think there is a pretty high probability that the target
> labeled "842 12Sep" on the daily is in play. I think it likely that the
> rally off the 771 low was W.A, that the current decline is W.B,
> and that we
> will see a W.C rally roughly equal in length to W.A which could take price
> to 1040+-. I also think that the bias is heavily weighted to the downside.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Hill, Ernie" <ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: <SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 6:44 AM
> Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
>
>
> > According to my TA the price action on Thursday and Friday meet the
> > requirements of a turning point. While from my perspective
> which is purely
> > TA no fundamental analysis involved we "should" be going up
> until at least
> > late September. However, if the market were to roll over now or make a
> > nominal new high tomorrow and then roll over it wouldn't be the
> first time
> > this type of reaction to my anticipated next turn high were to have
> > happened.
> >
> > While I am not expecting this type of move, it is within the
> parameters of
> > my methodology. If it does happen, it would represent extreme
> weakness in
> > the market, and would likely be triggered by a significant news event,
> > possibly even one the general public was not even aware of such as Ben's
> > letter from the German central banker. Technically the line in the sand
> 876
> > held. Now it has become the panic line! If it is broken within the next
> few
> > days it could get real ugly real fast.
> >
> > E
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Bob Heisler [mailto:BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 7:00 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> >
> > It's difficult to have much conviction with the 9/11
> anniversary wildcard
> > this week, but I'll take the other side of your scenario Ernie.
>  The rally
> > on Friday was entirely unimpressive and the few bulls that actually
> > participated looked like stumbling drunks in an ice storm.  And the late
> > failed breakout/weak close wasn't confidence inspiring and most
> likely was
> a
> > good place to enter medium term shorts.
> >
> > Regardless of which way it goes I just hope we see 898-900
> become support
> or
> > 890-888 become resistance early on Monday.
> >
> > Bob
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >
> > From: Hill, Ernie <mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx' <mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'>
> > Sent: Friday, September 06, 2002 8:11 PM
> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> >
> > Yesterday's close was firmly in the middle of my last target range of
> > 876-884. On Tuesday I said "while the market can move below the
> 876 level
> it
> > must close above it for my target range of 876-884 to be valid." The
> market
> > did just that with yesterday's intra-day low of 870.55 and a
> closing price
> > of 879.15.
> >
> > I believe we have finally seen the termination of the recent down move.
> With
> > today's close of 893.92 we finally have a confirmation day. My work
> > indicates that the dominant trend will be up from here until late
> September
> > or early October, where the bear market rally will lose steam and roll
> over.
> >
> > E
> >  <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts>
> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Tuesday, September 03, 2002 9:22 PM
> > To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> >
> > The market can be very humbling. What I rated as a small chance has come
> to
> > pass. The 876-884 target range is the last of my projected target ranges
> for
> > the termination of the current short term down move.
> > 883.63 is the critical .618 retracement level for the move from the 8-5
> low
> > to the 8-22 high. 876 is literally the line in the sand. My
> work does not
> > show any support levels of significant strength below 876. Should the
> market
> > drop from here to below 833 before terminating this current
> down swing, it
> > would cause me to have to perform a major re-evaluation of the markets
> > current price structure.
> > While the market can move below the 876 level it must close above it for
> my
> > target range of 876-884 to be valid. It has been my experience that all
> > significant turning points occur very near to strong support or
> resistance
> > levels. This particular turning point has made itself significant by the
> > strength of the markets move down to it.
> > My timing model is screaming for a turn to be made, and we are
> at the last
> > strong support level that I see before breaking the 8-5 low of
> 833.44. My
> > methodology is now staring the market right in the face. Which
> will blink
> > first?
> > E
> >
> >
> >
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