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----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 9:26 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> Exactly! The major caveat is that I suspect economic problems globally are
> unraveling fast and the unraveling may very well topple the W.C ahead of
> what would be a normal price and time target.
>
> Earl,
W. C.? I think in England "W.C." is the abbreviation for water closet. I
don't supposed that is what you are referring? Are you trying to say you
think the global economy is headed down the toilet?
Flushingly,
Norman
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 7:15 PM
> Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
>
>
> > Earl, See attached.....
> > have I properly marked the "A-B-C" pattern you have explained below ?
> > It does seem like a good possibility.
> > And the "C" nicely coincides with the upcoming November election.
> > And would really be a nasty surprise for the bears !!
> > Alas, as most "C" waves go, it won't last for long.....
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 11:22 AM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > >
> > >
> > > This is certainly a very dicey period in which to trade, however here
is
> > > what I see.
> > >
> > > Daily: I don't put much credence in the count here, but it's
> > > instructive to
> > > analyze the information provided. Price failed to reach the important
> left
> > > pivot high at 996 during the initial phase of its thrust ... generally
a
> > > sign of weakness. Also of note is the fact that the "W.4" has deeply
> > > penetrated the W.4 blue/green/red channels ... an indication of
probable
> > > failure for the "W.5". The decline from the high had a choice of two
> > > possible paths, 4x1 or 2x1, and chose the steeper of the two.
> > > Also worthy of
> > > note ... if I force AGet to use long term counts, it labels the
> > > high at 966
> > > as "W.4" and shows an extremely low PTI for the projected W.5
> > > decline. This
> > > suggests that the 771 (W.3) low will hold for the next several weeks.
> > >
> > > Hourly: a decent impulsive count down which broke under the bear
channel
> > > during w.3 and has now completed a nice W.4 rally pattern. AGet
projects
> a
> > > minimum W.5 at 845+-. Also in play are two other patterns of note. The
> > > bullish pattern is a possible island reversal which would be
> > > confirmed by a
> > > move higher. The bearish pattern is the inverse cup and handle which
> > > projects to 819.
> > >
> > > Conclusion: I think there is a pretty high probability that the target
> > > labeled "842 12Sep" on the daily is in play. I think it likely that
the
> > > rally off the 771 low was W.A, that the current decline is W.B,
> > > and that we
> > > will see a W.C rally roughly equal in length to W.A which could take
> price
> > > to 1040+-. I also think that the bias is heavily weighted to the
> downside.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Hill, Ernie" <ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Cc: <SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 6:44 AM
> > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > >
> > >
> > > > According to my TA the price action on Thursday and Friday meet the
> > > > requirements of a turning point. While from my perspective
> > > which is purely
> > > > TA no fundamental analysis involved we "should" be going up
> > > until at least
> > > > late September. However, if the market were to roll over now or make
a
> > > > nominal new high tomorrow and then roll over it wouldn't be the
> > > first time
> > > > this type of reaction to my anticipated next turn high were to have
> > > > happened.
> > > >
> > > > While I am not expecting this type of move, it is within the
> > > parameters of
> > > > my methodology. If it does happen, it would represent extreme
> > > weakness in
> > > > the market, and would likely be triggered by a significant news
event,
> > > > possibly even one the general public was not even aware of such as
> Ben's
> > > > letter from the German central banker. Technically the line in the
> sand
> > > 876
> > > > held. Now it has become the panic line! If it is broken within the
> next
> > > few
> > > > days it could get real ugly real fast.
> > > >
> > > > E
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: Bob Heisler [mailto:BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx]
> > > > Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 7:00 AM
> > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > > >
> > > > It's difficult to have much conviction with the 9/11
> > > anniversary wildcard
> > > > this week, but I'll take the other side of your scenario Ernie.
> > > The rally
> > > > on Friday was entirely unimpressive and the few bulls that actually
> > > > participated looked like stumbling drunks in an ice storm. And the
> late
> > > > failed breakout/weak close wasn't confidence inspiring and most
> > > likely was
> > > a
> > > > good place to enter medium term shorts.
> > > >
> > > > Regardless of which way it goes I just hope we see 898-900
> > > become support
> > > or
> > > > 890-888 become resistance early on Monday.
> > > >
> > > > Bob
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > >
> > > > From: Hill, Ernie <mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
> <mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'>
> > > > Sent: Friday, September 06, 2002 8:11 PM
> > > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > > >
> > > > Yesterday's close was firmly in the middle of my last target range
of
> > > > 876-884. On Tuesday I said "while the market can move below the
> > > 876 level
> > > it
> > > > must close above it for my target range of 876-884 to be valid." The
> > > market
> > > > did just that with yesterday's intra-day low of 870.55 and a
> > > closing price
> > > > of 879.15.
> > > >
> > > > I believe we have finally seen the termination of the recent down
> move.
> > > With
> > > > today's close of 893.92 we finally have a confirmation day. My work
> > > > indicates that the dominant trend will be up from here until late
> > > September
> > > > or early October, where the bear market rally will lose steam and
roll
> > > over.
> > > >
> > > > E
> > > > <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts>
> > > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, September 03, 2002 9:22 PM
> > > > To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
> > > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > > >
> > > > The market can be very humbling. What I rated as a small chance has
> come
> > > to
> > > > pass. The 876-884 target range is the last of my projected target
> ranges
> > > for
> > > > the termination of the current short term down move.
> > > > 883.63 is the critical .618 retracement level for the move from the
> 8-5
> > > low
> > > > to the 8-22 high. 876 is literally the line in the sand. My
> > > work does not
> > > > show any support levels of significant strength below 876. Should
the
> > > market
> > > > drop from here to below 833 before terminating this current
> > > down swing, it
> > > > would cause me to have to perform a major re-evaluation of the
markets
> > > > current price structure.
> > > > While the market can move below the 876 level it must close above it
> for
> > > my
> > > > target range of 876-884 to be valid. It has been my experience that
> all
> > > > significant turning points occur very near to strong support or
> > > resistance
> > > > levels. This particular turning point has made itself significant by
> the
> > > > strength of the markets move down to it.
> > > > My timing model is screaming for a turn to be made, and we are
> > > at the last
> > > > strong support level that I see before breaking the 8-5 low of
> > > 833.44. My
> > > > methodology is now staring the market right in the face. Which
> > > will blink
> > > > first?
> > > > E
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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