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Stephen Roach says it far better than I:
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020906-fri.html#anchor0
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 7:34 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 9:26 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
>
>
> > Exactly! The major caveat is that I suspect economic problems globally
are
> > unraveling fast and the unraveling may very well topple the W.C ahead of
> > what would be a normal price and time target.
> >
> > Earl,
>
> W. C.? I think in England "W.C." is the abbreviation for water closet.
I
> don't supposed that is what you are referring? Are you trying to say you
> think the global economy is headed down the toilet?
>
> Flushingly,
>
> Norman
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 7:15 PM
> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> >
> >
> > > Earl, See attached.....
> > > have I properly marked the "A-B-C" pattern you have explained below ?
> > > It does seem like a good possibility.
> > > And the "C" nicely coincides with the upcoming November election.
> > > And would really be a nasty surprise for the bears !!
> > > Alas, as most "C" waves go, it won't last for long.....
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 11:22 AM
> > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > This is certainly a very dicey period in which to trade, however
here
> is
> > > > what I see.
> > > >
> > > > Daily: I don't put much credence in the count here, but it's
> > > > instructive to
> > > > analyze the information provided. Price failed to reach the
important
> > left
> > > > pivot high at 996 during the initial phase of its thrust ...
generally
> a
> > > > sign of weakness. Also of note is the fact that the "W.4" has deeply
> > > > penetrated the W.4 blue/green/red channels ... an indication of
> probable
> > > > failure for the "W.5". The decline from the high had a choice of two
> > > > possible paths, 4x1 or 2x1, and chose the steeper of the two.
> > > > Also worthy of
> > > > note ... if I force AGet to use long term counts, it labels the
> > > > high at 966
> > > > as "W.4" and shows an extremely low PTI for the projected W.5
> > > > decline. This
> > > > suggests that the 771 (W.3) low will hold for the next several
weeks.
> > > >
> > > > Hourly: a decent impulsive count down which broke under the bear
> channel
> > > > during w.3 and has now completed a nice W.4 rally pattern. AGet
> projects
> > a
> > > > minimum W.5 at 845+-. Also in play are two other patterns of note.
The
> > > > bullish pattern is a possible island reversal which would be
> > > > confirmed by a
> > > > move higher. The bearish pattern is the inverse cup and handle which
> > > > projects to 819.
> > > >
> > > > Conclusion: I think there is a pretty high probability that the
target
> > > > labeled "842 12Sep" on the daily is in play. I think it likely that
> the
> > > > rally off the 771 low was W.A, that the current decline is W.B,
> > > > and that we
> > > > will see a W.C rally roughly equal in length to W.A which could take
> > price
> > > > to 1040+-. I also think that the bias is heavily weighted to the
> > downside.
> > > >
> > > > Earl
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Hill, Ernie" <ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Cc: <SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 6:44 AM
> > > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > According to my TA the price action on Thursday and Friday meet
the
> > > > > requirements of a turning point. While from my perspective
> > > > which is purely
> > > > > TA no fundamental analysis involved we "should" be going up
> > > > until at least
> > > > > late September. However, if the market were to roll over now or
make
> a
> > > > > nominal new high tomorrow and then roll over it wouldn't be the
> > > > first time
> > > > > this type of reaction to my anticipated next turn high were to
have
> > > > > happened.
> > > > >
> > > > > While I am not expecting this type of move, it is within the
> > > > parameters of
> > > > > my methodology. If it does happen, it would represent extreme
> > > > weakness in
> > > > > the market, and would likely be triggered by a significant news
> event,
> > > > > possibly even one the general public was not even aware of such as
> > Ben's
> > > > > letter from the German central banker. Technically the line in the
> > sand
> > > > 876
> > > > > held. Now it has become the panic line! If it is broken within the
> > next
> > > > few
> > > > > days it could get real ugly real fast.
> > > > >
> > > > > E
> > > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: Bob Heisler [mailto:BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx]
> > > > > Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 7:00 AM
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > > > >
> > > > > It's difficult to have much conviction with the 9/11
> > > > anniversary wildcard
> > > > > this week, but I'll take the other side of your scenario Ernie.
> > > > The rally
> > > > > on Friday was entirely unimpressive and the few bulls that
actually
> > > > > participated looked like stumbling drunks in an ice storm. And
the
> > late
> > > > > failed breakout/weak close wasn't confidence inspiring and most
> > > > likely was
> > > > a
> > > > > good place to enter medium term shorts.
> > > > >
> > > > > Regardless of which way it goes I just hope we see 898-900
> > > > become support
> > > > or
> > > > > 890-888 become resistance early on Monday.
> > > > >
> > > > > Bob
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > >
> > > > > From: Hill, Ernie <mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
> > <mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'>
> > > > > Sent: Friday, September 06, 2002 8:11 PM
> > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > > > >
> > > > > Yesterday's close was firmly in the middle of my last target range
> of
> > > > > 876-884. On Tuesday I said "while the market can move below the
> > > > 876 level
> > > > it
> > > > > must close above it for my target range of 876-884 to be valid."
The
> > > > market
> > > > > did just that with yesterday's intra-day low of 870.55 and a
> > > > closing price
> > > > > of 879.15.
> > > > >
> > > > > I believe we have finally seen the termination of the recent down
> > move.
> > > > With
> > > > > today's close of 893.92 we finally have a confirmation day. My
work
> > > > > indicates that the dominant trend will be up from here until late
> > > > September
> > > > > or early October, where the bear market rally will lose steam and
> roll
> > > > over.
> > > > >
> > > > > E
> > > > > <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts>
> > > > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
> > > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > > Sent: Tuesday, September 03, 2002 9:22 PM
> > > > > To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
> > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > > > >
> > > > > The market can be very humbling. What I rated as a small chance
has
> > come
> > > > to
> > > > > pass. The 876-884 target range is the last of my projected target
> > ranges
> > > > for
> > > > > the termination of the current short term down move.
> > > > > 883.63 is the critical .618 retracement level for the move from
the
> > 8-5
> > > > low
> > > > > to the 8-22 high. 876 is literally the line in the sand. My
> > > > work does not
> > > > > show any support levels of significant strength below 876. Should
> the
> > > > market
> > > > > drop from here to below 833 before terminating this current
> > > > down swing, it
> > > > > would cause me to have to perform a major re-evaluation of the
> markets
> > > > > current price structure.
> > > > > While the market can move below the 876 level it must close above
it
> > for
> > > > my
> > > > > target range of 876-884 to be valid. It has been my experience
that
> > all
> > > > > significant turning points occur very near to strong support or
> > > > resistance
> > > > > levels. This particular turning point has made itself significant
by
> > the
> > > > > strength of the markets move down to it.
> > > > > My timing model is screaming for a turn to be made, and we are
> > > > at the last
> > > > > strong support level that I see before breaking the 8-5 low of
> > > > 833.44. My
> > > > > methodology is now staring the market right in the face. Which
> > > > will blink
> > > > > first?
> > > > > E
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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