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This is certainly a very dicey period in which to trade, however here is
what I see.
Daily: I don't put much credence in the count here, but it's instructive to
analyze the information provided. Price failed to reach the important left
pivot high at 996 during the initial phase of its thrust ... generally a
sign of weakness. Also of note is the fact that the "W.4" has deeply
penetrated the W.4 blue/green/red channels ... an indication of probable
failure for the "W.5". The decline from the high had a choice of two
possible paths, 4x1 or 2x1, and chose the steeper of the two. Also worthy of
note ... if I force AGet to use long term counts, it labels the high at 966
as "W.4" and shows an extremely low PTI for the projected W.5 decline. This
suggests that the 771 (W.3) low will hold for the next several weeks.
Hourly: a decent impulsive count down which broke under the bear channel
during w.3 and has now completed a nice W.4 rally pattern. AGet projects a
minimum W.5 at 845+-. Also in play are two other patterns of note. The
bullish pattern is a possible island reversal which would be confirmed by a
move higher. The bearish pattern is the inverse cup and handle which
projects to 819.
Conclusion: I think there is a pretty high probability that the target
labeled "842 12Sep" on the daily is in play. I think it likely that the
rally off the 771 low was W.A, that the current decline is W.B, and that we
will see a W.C rally roughly equal in length to W.A which could take price
to 1040+-. I also think that the bias is heavily weighted to the downside.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Hill, Ernie" <ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 6:44 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> According to my TA the price action on Thursday and Friday meet the
> requirements of a turning point. While from my perspective which is purely
> TA no fundamental analysis involved we "should" be going up until at least
> late September. However, if the market were to roll over now or make a
> nominal new high tomorrow and then roll over it wouldn't be the first time
> this type of reaction to my anticipated next turn high were to have
> happened.
>
> While I am not expecting this type of move, it is within the parameters of
> my methodology. If it does happen, it would represent extreme weakness in
> the market, and would likely be triggered by a significant news event,
> possibly even one the general public was not even aware of such as Ben's
> letter from the German central banker. Technically the line in the sand
876
> held. Now it has become the panic line! If it is broken within the next
few
> days it could get real ugly real fast.
>
> E
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Bob Heisler [mailto:BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 7:00 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
>
> It's difficult to have much conviction with the 9/11 anniversary wildcard
> this week, but I'll take the other side of your scenario Ernie. The rally
> on Friday was entirely unimpressive and the few bulls that actually
> participated looked like stumbling drunks in an ice storm. And the late
> failed breakout/weak close wasn't confidence inspiring and most likely was
a
> good place to enter medium term shorts.
>
> Regardless of which way it goes I just hope we see 898-900 become support
or
> 890-888 become resistance early on Monday.
>
> Bob
> ----- Original Message -----
>
> From: Hill, Ernie <mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx' <mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'>
> Sent: Friday, September 06, 2002 8:11 PM
> Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
>
> Yesterday's close was firmly in the middle of my last target range of
> 876-884. On Tuesday I said "while the market can move below the 876 level
it
> must close above it for my target range of 876-884 to be valid." The
market
> did just that with yesterday's intra-day low of 870.55 and a closing price
> of 879.15.
>
> I believe we have finally seen the termination of the recent down move.
With
> today's close of 893.92 we finally have a confirmation day. My work
> indicates that the dominant trend will be up from here until late
September
> or early October, where the bear market rally will lose steam and roll
over.
>
> E
> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts>
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Tuesday, September 03, 2002 9:22 PM
> To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
> Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
>
> The market can be very humbling. What I rated as a small chance has come
to
> pass. The 876-884 target range is the last of my projected target ranges
for
> the termination of the current short term down move.
> 883.63 is the critical .618 retracement level for the move from the 8-5
low
> to the 8-22 high. 876 is literally the line in the sand. My work does not
> show any support levels of significant strength below 876. Should the
market
> drop from here to below 833 before terminating this current down swing, it
> would cause me to have to perform a major re-evaluation of the markets
> current price structure.
> While the market can move below the 876 level it must close above it for
my
> target range of 876-884 to be valid. It has been my experience that all
> significant turning points occur very near to strong support or resistance
> levels. This particular turning point has made itself significant by the
> strength of the markets move down to it.
> My timing model is screaming for a turn to be made, and we are at the last
> strong support level that I see before breaking the 8-5 low of 833.44. My
> methodology is now staring the market right in the face. Which will blink
> first?
> E
>
>
>
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