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Exactly! The major caveat is that I suspect economic problems globally are
unraveling fast and the unraveling may very well topple the W.C ahead of
what would be a normal price and time target.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 7:15 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> Earl, See attached.....
> have I properly marked the "A-B-C" pattern you have explained below ?
> It does seem like a good possibility.
> And the "C" nicely coincides with the upcoming November election.
> And would really be a nasty surprise for the bears !!
> Alas, as most "C" waves go, it won't last for long.....
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 11:22 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> >
> >
> > This is certainly a very dicey period in which to trade, however here is
> > what I see.
> >
> > Daily: I don't put much credence in the count here, but it's
> > instructive to
> > analyze the information provided. Price failed to reach the important
left
> > pivot high at 996 during the initial phase of its thrust ... generally a
> > sign of weakness. Also of note is the fact that the "W.4" has deeply
> > penetrated the W.4 blue/green/red channels ... an indication of probable
> > failure for the "W.5". The decline from the high had a choice of two
> > possible paths, 4x1 or 2x1, and chose the steeper of the two.
> > Also worthy of
> > note ... if I force AGet to use long term counts, it labels the
> > high at 966
> > as "W.4" and shows an extremely low PTI for the projected W.5
> > decline. This
> > suggests that the 771 (W.3) low will hold for the next several weeks.
> >
> > Hourly: a decent impulsive count down which broke under the bear channel
> > during w.3 and has now completed a nice W.4 rally pattern. AGet projects
a
> > minimum W.5 at 845+-. Also in play are two other patterns of note. The
> > bullish pattern is a possible island reversal which would be
> > confirmed by a
> > move higher. The bearish pattern is the inverse cup and handle which
> > projects to 819.
> >
> > Conclusion: I think there is a pretty high probability that the target
> > labeled "842 12Sep" on the daily is in play. I think it likely that the
> > rally off the 771 low was W.A, that the current decline is W.B,
> > and that we
> > will see a W.C rally roughly equal in length to W.A which could take
price
> > to 1040+-. I also think that the bias is heavily weighted to the
downside.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Hill, Ernie" <ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Cc: <SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 6:44 AM
> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> >
> >
> > > According to my TA the price action on Thursday and Friday meet the
> > > requirements of a turning point. While from my perspective
> > which is purely
> > > TA no fundamental analysis involved we "should" be going up
> > until at least
> > > late September. However, if the market were to roll over now or make a
> > > nominal new high tomorrow and then roll over it wouldn't be the
> > first time
> > > this type of reaction to my anticipated next turn high were to have
> > > happened.
> > >
> > > While I am not expecting this type of move, it is within the
> > parameters of
> > > my methodology. If it does happen, it would represent extreme
> > weakness in
> > > the market, and would likely be triggered by a significant news event,
> > > possibly even one the general public was not even aware of such as
Ben's
> > > letter from the German central banker. Technically the line in the
sand
> > 876
> > > held. Now it has become the panic line! If it is broken within the
next
> > few
> > > days it could get real ugly real fast.
> > >
> > > E
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Bob Heisler [mailto:BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002 7:00 AM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > >
> > > It's difficult to have much conviction with the 9/11
> > anniversary wildcard
> > > this week, but I'll take the other side of your scenario Ernie.
> > The rally
> > > on Friday was entirely unimpressive and the few bulls that actually
> > > participated looked like stumbling drunks in an ice storm. And the
late
> > > failed breakout/weak close wasn't confidence inspiring and most
> > likely was
> > a
> > > good place to enter medium term shorts.
> > >
> > > Regardless of which way it goes I just hope we see 898-900
> > become support
> > or
> > > 890-888 become resistance early on Monday.
> > >
> > > Bob
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > >
> > > From: Hill, Ernie <mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
<mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'>
> > > Sent: Friday, September 06, 2002 8:11 PM
> > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > >
> > > Yesterday's close was firmly in the middle of my last target range of
> > > 876-884. On Tuesday I said "while the market can move below the
> > 876 level
> > it
> > > must close above it for my target range of 876-884 to be valid." The
> > market
> > > did just that with yesterday's intra-day low of 870.55 and a
> > closing price
> > > of 879.15.
> > >
> > > I believe we have finally seen the termination of the recent down
move.
> > With
> > > today's close of 893.92 we finally have a confirmation day. My work
> > > indicates that the dominant trend will be up from here until late
> > September
> > > or early October, where the bear market rally will lose steam and roll
> > over.
> > >
> > > E
> > > <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts>
> > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Tuesday, September 03, 2002 9:22 PM
> > > To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
> > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
> > >
> > > The market can be very humbling. What I rated as a small chance has
come
> > to
> > > pass. The 876-884 target range is the last of my projected target
ranges
> > for
> > > the termination of the current short term down move.
> > > 883.63 is the critical .618 retracement level for the move from the
8-5
> > low
> > > to the 8-22 high. 876 is literally the line in the sand. My
> > work does not
> > > show any support levels of significant strength below 876. Should the
> > market
> > > drop from here to below 833 before terminating this current
> > down swing, it
> > > would cause me to have to perform a major re-evaluation of the markets
> > > current price structure.
> > > While the market can move below the 876 level it must close above it
for
> > my
> > > target range of 876-884 to be valid. It has been my experience that
all
> > > significant turning points occur very near to strong support or
> > resistance
> > > levels. This particular turning point has made itself significant by
the
> > > strength of the markets move down to it.
> > > My timing model is screaming for a turn to be made, and we are
> > at the last
> > > strong support level that I see before breaking the 8-5 low of
> > 833.44. My
> > > methodology is now staring the market right in the face. Which
> > will blink
> > > first?
> > > E
> > >
> > >
> > >
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