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Fed Model assumes no risk premium for stocks over 10 year treasuries ...
absurd by my reckoning!
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim Johnson" <jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, July 27, 2002 9:28 AM
Subject: Re[5]: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
> Hello Clyde,
>
> That is the so-called "Fed model" advocated by many observers--in
> particular I know Ed Yardeni (just went to his excellent webiste--he's
> gone to Prudential and the info he used to give away is gone.) is a
> big fan of it. By that model the market is not overvalued. It is also
> the model preferred by the likes of Batapaglia--that alone makes me an
> unbeliever ;)
>
>
> Best regards,
> Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
> --
> Saturday, July 27, 2002, 11:09:51 AM, you wrote:
>
> CL> I wonder what this would look like if it were divided into the
> CL> bond yield or something of that order to normalize it against
> CL> "expected return" for "safe money".
>
> CL> As low as yields are now I would not be surprised if a high PE
> CL> ratio is not justified as a competitive return basis.
>
> CL> Clyde
>
>
> CL> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> CL> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> CL> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
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>
> CL> ----- Original Message -----
> CL> From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>
> CL> To: "Jim Johnson" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> CL> Sent: Saturday, July 27, 2002 9:21 AM
> CL> Subject: Re[3]: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
>
>
> >> Hello Jim,
> >>
> >> on PE see attached. No bull matket until PE<=10. Only bear market
> >> rallies.
> >>
> >> Best regards,
> >> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
> >>
> >>
> >> Saturday, July 27, 2002, 6:15:12 PM, you wrote:
> >>
> >> JJ> Hello Adrian and RT group,
> >>
> >> JJ> A yahoo glitch caused me to miss the front end of this discussion
so
> >> JJ> I'm using Adrian's last post as my jump point. I don't know what
> >> JJ> CLyde's models are suggesting these days but I have a comment about
> >> JJ> signals for bear market endings.
> >>
> >> JJ> Three writers (I know of) have commented on this and provided
> >> JJ> historical data to support their case--
> >>
> >> JJ> Marty Zwieg looks for 9 to 1 up volume days, more than one in a
period
> >> JJ> of time.
> >>
> >> JJ> William O'Neill (Investors Bus Daily) looks for 1% price increase
in
> >> JJ> DJI accompanied by significant volume increase. Two of these in
5-10
> >> JJ> day period I recall.
> >>
> >> JJ> Mark Boucher (The Hedge Fund Edge, Tradingmarkets.com) has a number
of
> >> JJ> breadth signals similar to the those above.
> >>
> >> JJ> Also, all three wait for these signals before deciding the tide has
> >> JJ> turned. They don't predict the bottom but confirm it after its in.
> >>
> >> JJ> I'd add that with my long term money, I'll wait for those signals
and
> >> JJ> a meaningful retest forming a higher low.
> >>
> >> JJ> this is July and the seasonals aren't favorable for a few weeks
yet.
> >> JJ> In addition, by some lights (Decisionpoint.com)and mine p/e's are
> >> JJ> still way too high-- ~35 for SP500. Hard for me to see a bull
market
> >> JJ> starting from there.
> >>
> >> JJ> ONe more thing, Zwieg also presents compelling data on consumer
debt.
> >> JJ> The bull moves he documents all start with consumer debt very low.
> >> JJ> Right now its very high.
> >>
> >> JJ> My guess is that the market (designed by higher beings for purpose
of
> >> JJ> fooling the maximum number of people) will give a bear market rally
> >> JJ> that is strong enug to suck 'em in (A J Cohen and J Batapaglia
leading
> >> JJ> the charge) and puke 'em out just when the seasonals and election
> >> JJ> cycle says the market will go up forever.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> JJ> Best regards,
> >> JJ> Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >>
> >> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>
> >>
> >>
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >>
> >>
>
>
>
>
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