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Attached, are two charts that give some technical support for a bullish
turn-around in the markets. Personally, I'm concerned about: (1) negative fund
outflows, (2) continued probs. in the tech sector, (3) the Aug-14 confession
period, and the 9-11 anniversary ahead. On the bullish side, the US$ seems to
have stabilized, and gold has pulled back.
1) NDX and the OTC NH/NL's and A/D. The NH/NL indicator I follow, is a 20dma of
the new highs as a percentage of (New Highs + New Lows) on the Nasdaq. It
finally hit the 13 level which is consitent with low points in the past. The
A/D oscilator I look at is similar. The A/D oscilator did not quite move low
enough to be a solid oversold indicator, however.
2) On the DJIA, I've been playing with a volatility indicator, that simply sums
up the number of greater than 1% range days for the DJIA. It seems that when
that number gets very low (10 out of 40), we've often seen a sell-off at some
point subsequent, and when it gets well above 20 (25 at the moment), we've
often seen a near-term bottom.
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Attachment:
Description: "djia_20020726.gif"
Attachment:
Description: "ndx_20020726.gif"
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