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<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Hmmm.....I guess that depends on who your talking to. I used to
work in Foreign Exchange and people
could
never understand why my trading and advice often differed from what they were
advised. To me it
was
and always has been obvious. But for most people it isn't. They
think purely from their own little
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>perspective and can't see the different ways in which markets work.
My advice to the spot traders would
often
be totally different to what corporates would be told. Why?
Simple..their all trading different time
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>horizons. The market is creating trends on some or many different
time frames.
A
trend is simply a market making higher highs or lower lows on whatever time
frame is relevant for YOU.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Nothing complicated.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
In the
context of our discussion here I see the market having terminated the bull trend
from 1982 or 1974.
This
may result in a savage decline or it may result in years of sideways chop.
But as things stand now, its
very
clear that from the 2000/01 high the Dow and S&P and NASDAQ are all in clear
downtrends. And
when
everyone keeps trying to pick the bottom, it just amplifies in my mind even more
that we are in a
bear
trend.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
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<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Norman Winski
[mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Sunday, 28 July 2002 3:44
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Re:
One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
Adrian,
How do you define a bear market?
Thanks,Norman
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 27, 2002 5:52
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or
Start of New Trend
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Clyde,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>I'm sorry Clyde, I made an incorrect assumption that I was dealing
with a group of traders here that
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>were above average in intelligence and would know to apply apples and
apples. My point in saying your
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>analysis was flawed was reference to the obvious fact that the
current market environment has NOTHING
to
do with the environment that existed for the past 20 odd years. If you
wish to compare like with like
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>you need to compare REAL bear markets with the current
activity. The US has had NO bear markets in
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>the past 20 years. The only obvious ones are 1929-33 and the
70's. All of this seems obvious to me.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Its great to have the ability to take some simple notion and crunch
it through 1000's of examples and tests
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>but ultimately its like using a sledgehammer to put a nail in the
wall. Extremely ineffective and will lead
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>everyone to wrong conclusions. There is only ONE proper way and it
involves an understanding and
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>appreciation of markets, people, economics and how it all
interacts. Markets AREN'T simple, they are
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>incredibly complex, and any attempt to apply one dimensional analysis
across a whole raft of environments
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>will be futile. Its like saying the best moving average will be
the least square fit line over the past 100 years!!
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
By
eliminating al that is incorrect Clyde, it brings everyone one step closer
to the truth. Wasn't their a famous
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>genius who once said it you eliminate the impossible, you are left
with whats possible?
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
So
my suggestion, even though it went over your head, is to once again suggest
that you analyse where 6%
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>updays occurred in GENUINE sustained bear trends. i.e 1929-33,
1970-74 and the NASDAQ 2000-current.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>I'm sure your readers would be more informed with whatever is
discovered. I haven't done the work, but my
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>experience would suggest there were quite a few of them, and ALL
except the very last one had no bullish
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>implications whatsoever.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Regards,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian Pitt
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Clyde Lee
[mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Saturday, 27 July 2002 6:02
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
Adrian,
Why is it that everything anyone does in the
way of an analysis is
"flawed" in
your mind (and it really has to be just in YOUR mind).
I doubt seriously that whatever happened in
1929-1933 has anything
to do with what goes on these days and in
that respect your logic
is more "flawed" than the study that I
provided. My analysis covered
a considerably longer period than the 4 years
you reference and you
would throw out the analysis totally because
of the behavior over a
single 4 year period. Somewhere
analytic does not appear to be
analytical any more.
Instead of just saying something is "flawed"
why do you not detail
explicitly just how and why it is
flawed and show specific information
which others can consider to see if they
would agree with your
concept of "flawedness" instead of some
broad brush statement
without any support ! ! ! !
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home
of SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, July 26, 2002 5:05
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Re: One Day Rally
or Start of New Trend
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Clyde,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Your research is flawed. All 3 charts are bull market
phases in the market. Show me your analysis of the Dow in 1929-33
and lets see what happened after 6% updays :-)
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Clyde
Lee [mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Thursday, 25 July
2002 10:50 PMTo: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
Re: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
Attached are 3 charts covering time
periods in which significant up
moves began.
The red bars are days in which the range
of the high for that day to
the lower low of that or the prior day
exceed 6 percent.
Now you have a basis for deciding whether
there is a likelihood of
this being more than a one day
rally.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO
(Home of SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation
email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
<A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"><FONT
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