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Fred
For all practical purposes you are correct. There are ONLY MINOR
and insignificant differences in what I am doing and what you postulate
that I am doing. I wish I had the talent to tell everyone just how
this is pushing the use of Fourier techniques to the limit to reduce the
ambiguity in the zone from the last computation of the CMA to the
current (and future) points in time.
Everyone should also realize that the "projections" of the CMAs that
are made by the HurstFour routines is nothing more than estimates
and certainly deviate a considerable amount from the CMA values
that are eventually derived.
It is interesting to note that I use at least 2 (and with enough data
length 8) cycles of whatever period is being evaluated for the 1/2
cycle computation to compute the AMPLITUDE of the CMA at
any given point forward in time from the last point at which the
CMA was computed.
HOWEVER, I use ONLY ONE CYCLE to compute the phase of
the cyclic event we are examining and consequently come close as
I can to aligning the selected cyclic event to the measured data.
The routines allow the user to manipulate the amplitude of the
cycle used for forecasting but DOES NOT allow any manipulation
of the phase component.
As a practicing exploration geophysicist I have long had a strong
aversion to anyone messing with the phase characteristics of the
data that I am working with. Do anything you want to with the
amplitude but don't screw with my phase -- gotta anchor something.
I appreciate the time and effort you took to outline what you had
gathered from my posts and hope that what you said and what I have
said here helps others to understand this concept.
Clyde
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Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Fred" <srqblue@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 1:02 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Hurst Long Term Cycles
> On Tue, 16 Jul 2002 07:56:13 -0700, Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> >If you start at the beginning
> >of the first 8 bar measurement with , by the time you get to the end
> >everything is out of sync. This is the opinion of one low math
> >achiever. Ira.
>
>
> You and Clyde Lee are both correct. Here is why:
>
> Hurst used the Fourier calculation (he re-named it "Periodogram") to
> establish the nominal cycles and amplitude relationships, as Clyde has
> done in his "long term" Dow assessment. But he warned of the
> Periodogram's limitations in Lesson 3 page 125 of the Cyclitec
> Services Training Course as follows:
>
> "...a Periodogram for price movements is a powerful aid in setting up
> a cylic model but must be considered as nothing more than this. It
> serves as an independent source of information as to what wave are
> active in price movement at a given time ---as opposed to being an
> absolute indicator."
>
> One of these limitations is exactly what Ira is concerned with above.
> However Clyde seems to be making an effort to compensate for this by
> using the Fourier/Peridogram to get cyclical information and then
> using this to extend a 1/2 span moving average of a PRICE envelopes
> into the future. The period used for the 1/2 span is the Fourier
> extraction of period lengths he is interested in trading on.
>
> Ira is correct, you need to re-anchor from the most recent cycle low
> to keep the future projection as close as possible to the ideal.
>
> Clyde is doing this by using the current PRICES, which DO account for
> the most recent lows, but then basing the MA envelopes length and
> future MA envelope projection upon his Fourier calculation outputs.
>
> This approach should not be called "Hurst method" but rather should be
> called the Clyde Lee "Fourier projection envelopes" or something.
> Hurst's methods are a more elaborate system of rules and techniques
> than what Clyde Lee has presented. He has however assembled a unique
> combination of Hurst's principles and discoveries to come up with
> something that Hurst has not presented.
>
> Now, an important caveat: I am only making an educated guess at what I
> think Clyde SHOULD be doing. He hasn't said boo to me about it, nor
> have I had the opportunity see anything more than his charts posted
> here.
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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>
>
>
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