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On Tue, 16 Jul 2002 07:56:13 -0700, Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>If you start at the beginning
>of the first 8 bar measurement with , by the time you get to the end
>everything is out of sync. This is the opinion of one low math
>achiever. Ira.
You and Clyde Lee are both correct. Here is why:
Hurst used the Fourier calculation (he re-named it "Periodogram") to
establish the nominal cycles and amplitude relationships, as Clyde has
done in his "long term" Dow assessment. But he warned of the
Periodogram's limitations in Lesson 3 page 125 of the Cyclitec
Services Training Course as follows:
"...a Periodogram for price movements is a powerful aid in setting up
a cylic model but must be considered as nothing more than this. It
serves as an independent source of information as to what wave are
active in price movement at a given time ---as opposed to being an
absolute indicator."
One of these limitations is exactly what Ira is concerned with above.
However Clyde seems to be making an effort to compensate for this by
using the Fourier/Peridogram to get cyclical information and then
using this to extend a 1/2 span moving average of a PRICE envelopes
into the future. The period used for the 1/2 span is the Fourier
extraction of period lengths he is interested in trading on.
Ira is correct, you need to re-anchor from the most recent cycle low
to keep the future projection as close as possible to the ideal.
Clyde is doing this by using the current PRICES, which DO account for
the most recent lows, but then basing the MA envelopes length and
future MA envelope projection upon his Fourier calculation outputs.
This approach should not be called "Hurst method" but rather should be
called the Clyde Lee "Fourier projection envelopes" or something.
Hurst's methods are a more elaborate system of rules and techniques
than what Clyde Lee has presented. He has however assembled a unique
combination of Hurst's principles and discoveries to come up with
something that Hurst has not presented.
Now, an important caveat: I am only making an educated guess at what I
think Clyde SHOULD be doing. He hasn't said boo to me about it, nor
have I had the opportunity see anything more than his charts posted
here.
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