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In Hurst's epic discussion of market timing he made
a study of the
cyclic elements in the market (DJIA I
think).
Last night I was reviewing his The Profit Magic of
Stock Transaction
Timing (for the umpteenth million time) and decided
that with the
markets behaving as they are it might be time to
take a look a where
in the longer term cycles the market is right
now.
First I did the FOURLINE thing and we still see
some of the same
characteristics that Hurst saw -- this was using
1000 months of
DJIA data.
Then, using a program that computes the
"instantaneous" amplitude
of a selected cycle based on the analysis of some
recent number of
full cycles of that length I plotted the response
for the 55, 42, and 24
month cycles which showed up on the FOURLINE
analysis.
An examination of the results would lead one to
conclude that we ARE
somewhere near a bottom based on the current
amplitudes of these
selected cycles.
The absolute bottom could be as far off as
September but there is
always quite a bit of slop in such
analyses.
See the attached for details.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - -Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - - -
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