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Ira,
Low or High math achiever does not
matter.
What I present here is ONE APPROACH to a method of
detecting when and if
cycles are at the beginning and/or end and/or
somewhere inbetween in their
period.
Instead of taking years and years of data (the
years and years was simply to
establish that there were valid cycles in the data)
to estimate what the CURRENT
position of the cycle is I use only the LAST FOUR
periods of the selected cycle
for the current estimate.
That slides along from bar to bar and other than
shortening that to one cycle
(which would be unstable) it allows for a
relatively current estimate of the
position of the selected cycle.
If you carefully look at the 55 bar cycle you will
note that it really does vary in
length by quite a bit as time passes. This
leads me to believe that 55 is just
an analytic expression of a much more complex wave
arrangement in the
55 bar zone.
The 42 bar analysis shows considerable more
stability in length of cycles
and may mean that we could count 42 bars as a
nominal period.
The 24 bar analysis is very stable insofar as
length is concerned but such
could be expected as things get shorter and
shorter.
I hope that everyone will understand what I am
doing and that it is the
best approach I know to trying to determine, at any
given instant in
time, the current position within a selected (or
near selected) cycle.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
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<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Ira Tunik
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 9:56
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Hurst Long Term
Cycles
First let me say that I believe in cycles and in Hurst's
work. I use it in my work. The thing that bothers me about what
you are doing is that you are trying to take years and years of data and come
up with a norm. I haven't read Hurst in years, but I do remember that he
stated, and I agree, that cycles are variable. His 28 week cycle was plus or
minus. So after the first cycle, the second cycle can be longer or
shorter then first by a bar or two. If that is the case then over a
period of time, if you don't change the starting point of the cycle, you will
be all out of whack. Using very sophisticated mathematics will not
change that fact or give you a highly dependable result. At least it
hasn't for me, but then again, I am not a math whiz. I have found, as an
example, that a 10 bar cycle can have 8 bars for two or three cycles and go to
10 and then 12 bars and come back down to 9 etc. If you start at the
beginning of the first 8 bar measurement with , by the time you get to the end
everything is out of sync. This is the opinion of one low math
achiever. Ira.
Clyde Lee wrote:
In Hurst's epic discussion of market timing
he made a study of thecyclic
elements in the market (DJIA I think). To
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