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Exactly...its important to understand that a general principle can in
fact be right 90% of the time when applied loosely or with broad
guidelines, but when you introduce strict mechanical rules and stops the
%wins will always suffer. its only a question of how much it suffers and
how well it maintains a good risk/reward ratio. If it dropped back to
60% winners in such circumstances I would suggest it to be very
valuable.
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Alex Bell [mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, 3 June 2002 5:29 PM
> To: metatrader108
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: SP foracast
>
>
> Hello Greg,
>
> You DID say first that "This is Hurst model in action.
> Proven to be 90% accurate. It is 100% automatic,
> mechanical and objective."
>
> And now you're saying that "It gives you an idea for the
> trade...", "just one tool, not a mechanical trading system".
>
> I wonder do you really understand what words "automatic,
> mechanical and objective" mean in context of trading or you
> use them just for a case?
>
> Best regards,
> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>
>
> Monday, June 3, 2002, 10:26:44 AM, you wrote:
>
> m> I can answer all these debating questions by saying, trading is an
> m> art and Hurst cycle indicator is a powerfull tool if you
> know how to
> m> use it. It ucovers geometric logic of the market for those who can
> m> respond to logic. It gives you an idea for the trade and
> magnitude,
> m> then you use other tools to nail it. So it gives right
> ideas 90% of
> m> the time
> m> This is just one tool, not a mechanical trading system. Not yet. I
> m> didn't say it is.
> m> If you refer to phisicality of the channel, you never understand
> m> what's for.
> m> By the way, there are two types of traders. One type are
> trading on
> m> reversals, confirmations, break outs and other lagging indicators.
> m> They kind of glued to the screens and jumping on orders
> like monkeys.
> m> Another type trade on pure idea of the market. They buy and sell
> m> before market reverse the direction.
>
> m> If you are a monkey trader, you'll have real hard time
> understanding
> m> other style. The only hope for you is to gradually evolve.
> m> 90% is possible as well as trading at tops and bottoms.
>
> m> If some books say don't trade tops and bottoms, perhaps you are
> m> reading wrong books. 90% of them are.
>
> m> Greg.
>
> m> P.S. Understanding things is an act of fortune. Good luck.
>
>
>
> m> --- In realtraders@xxxx, Ira Tunik <irat@xxxx> wrote:
> >> I don't know what is going on with Yahoogroups, but I sent this out
> m> at
> >> about 6:30 this morning and it never got posted. Here is
> the second
> >> try. Ira.
> >>
> >> I read all this ridicule of Hurst and his channels and wonder if
> m> anyone
> >> actually bothered to read the book, do the homework, and study the
> >> results or if they just like to draw lines and channels and
> >> postulate. He did not use the
> m> channels
> >> to project price, he used tangential extensions off of
> offset moving
> >> averages to project price and time. So anyone who is using the
> >> channels to project price or direction is going to be in a lot of
> >> trouble. You don't need a
> m> formula
> >> to draw the channels, you
> >> can get the same effect with a series of straight lines connecting
> m> the
> >> lows and parallels for the highs. It is not the lines, the
> m> extensions,
> >> or the ability to count that will
> >> make Hurst's system work for you, it is understanding what he is
> m> trying
> >> to prove and how it works and what its limitations are.
> If I am not
> >> mistaken, and I would have to go back to the book to confirm this,
> >> that time impacts price less then 30% of the time. That
> leaves you
> >> over 70% of the time
> m> blowing
> >> in the wind. It is the
> >> understanding of what is being used and its limitations and
> m> advantages
> >> that will help you in your trading and not guess work based upon
> m> what
> >> someone else says it is
> >> supposed to do. So if you believe that understanding times
> m> function in
> >> price action will help your trading by the book and study it. Try
> m> to
> >> understand what he has
> >> written not just read the words and look at the charts. Ira.
> >>
> >> Adrian Pitt wrote:
> >>
> >> Metatrader,Can you please define what you mean by 90% accurate.
> >> Please don't quote about past prices because every graph of Clyde's
> m> work
> >> from
> >> www.theswingmachine.com (as you have shown us...) are all curved
> >> fitted and rightly so..that's what Hurst bands do. So the only
> m> relevant
> >> statistic here is how accurate
> >> they are into the future. So you would have to do
> extensive walk
> >> forward testing. I'm assuming you have bought Clydes work and done
> m> this
> >> extensive testing to derive
> >> your 90% figure?? Assuming you have, I would love to
> hear a little
> >> more detail. Regards,Adrian Pitt
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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