|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
What I said, it is an objective model, not a trading system.
The advantage of using it, knowlege of a dominant cycle or better say
cycles.
Let's say you figured that SP isn't reversing and keep falling, then
it shifts to another harmonic component, which is known and
forcastable and the other good thing you know that this is the max
extention it can get on its way down.
So you just plug next harmonic number into a model and it draws
another scenario. Instead of wondering you have 2 scenarious to play.
Not so bad after all.
I have nothing against parallels and other methods, I just say there
is lots of value in what Hurst introduced.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxx> wrote:
> Exactly...its important to understand that a general principle can
in
> fact be right 90% of the time when applied loosely or with broad
> guidelines, but when you introduce strict mechanical rules and
stops the
> %wins will always suffer. its only a question of how much it
suffers and
> how well it maintains a good risk/reward ratio. If it dropped back
to
> 60% winners in such circumstances I would suggest it to be very
> valuable.
>
> Adrian
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Alex Bell [mailto:alex_bell@x...]
> > Sent: Monday, 3 June 2002 5:29 PM
> > To: metatrader108
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Re: SP foracast
> >
> >
> > Hello Greg,
> >
> > You DID say first that "This is Hurst model in action.
> > Proven to be 90% accurate. It is 100% automatic,
> > mechanical and objective."
> >
> > And now you're saying that "It gives you an idea for the
> > trade...", "just one tool, not a mechanical trading system".
> >
> > I wonder do you really understand what words "automatic,
> > mechanical and objective" mean in context of trading or you
> > use them just for a case?
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Alex mailto:alex_bell@x...
> >
> >
> > Monday, June 3, 2002, 10:26:44 AM, you wrote:
> >
> > m> I can answer all these debating questions by saying, trading
is an
> > m> art and Hurst cycle indicator is a powerfull tool if you
> > know how to
> > m> use it. It ucovers geometric logic of the market for those who
can
> > m> respond to logic. It gives you an idea for the trade and
> > magnitude,
> > m> then you use other tools to nail it. So it gives right
> > ideas 90% of
> > m> the time
> > m> This is just one tool, not a mechanical trading system. Not
yet. I
> > m> didn't say it is.
> > m> If you refer to phisicality of the channel, you never
understand
> > m> what's for.
> > m> By the way, there are two types of traders. One type are
> > trading on
> > m> reversals, confirmations, break outs and other lagging
indicators.
> > m> They kind of glued to the screens and jumping on orders
> > like monkeys.
> > m> Another type trade on pure idea of the market. They buy and
sell
> > m> before market reverse the direction.
> >
> > m> If you are a monkey trader, you'll have real hard time
> > understanding
> > m> other style. The only hope for you is to gradually evolve.
> > m> 90% is possible as well as trading at tops and bottoms.
> >
> > m> If some books say don't trade tops and bottoms, perhaps you are
> > m> reading wrong books. 90% of them are.
> >
> > m> Greg.
> >
> > m> P.S. Understanding things is an act of fortune. Good luck.
> >
> >
> >
> > m> --- In realtraders@xxxx, Ira Tunik <irat@xxxx> wrote:
> > >> I don't know what is going on with Yahoogroups, but I sent
this out
> > m> at
> > >> about 6:30 this morning and it never got posted. Here is
> > the second
> > >> try. Ira.
> > >>
> > >> I read all this ridicule of Hurst and his channels and wonder
if
> > m> anyone
> > >> actually bothered to read the book, do the homework, and study
the
> > >> results or if they just like to draw lines and channels and
> > >> postulate. He did not use the
> > m> channels
> > >> to project price, he used tangential extensions off of
> > offset moving
> > >> averages to project price and time. So anyone who is using
the
> > >> channels to project price or direction is going to be in a lot
of
> > >> trouble. You don't need a
> > m> formula
> > >> to draw the channels, you
> > >> can get the same effect with a series of straight lines
connecting
> > m> the
> > >> lows and parallels for the highs. It is not the lines, the
> > m> extensions,
> > >> or the ability to count that will
> > >> make Hurst's system work for you, it is understanding what he
is
> > m> trying
> > >> to prove and how it works and what its limitations are.
> > If I am not
> > >> mistaken, and I would have to go back to the book to confirm
this,
> > >> that time impacts price less then 30% of the time. That
> > leaves you
> > >> over 70% of the time
> > m> blowing
> > >> in the wind. It is the
> > >> understanding of what is being used and its limitations and
> > m> advantages
> > >> that will help you in your trading and not guess work based
upon
> > m> what
> > >> someone else says it is
> > >> supposed to do. So if you believe that understanding times
> > m> function in
> > >> price action will help your trading by the book and study it.
Try
> > m> to
> > >> understand what he has
> > >> written not just read the words and look at the charts. Ira.
> > >>
> > >> Adrian Pitt wrote:
> > >>
> > >> Metatrader,Can you please define what you mean by 90%
accurate.
> > >> Please don't quote about past prices because every graph of
Clyde's
> > m> work
> > >> from
> > >> www.theswingmachine.com (as you have shown us...) are all
curved
> > >> fitted and rightly so..that's what Hurst bands do. So the only
> > m> relevant
> > >> statistic here is how accurate
> > >> they are into the future. So you would have to do
> > extensive walk
> > >> forward testing. I'm assuming you have bought Clydes work and
done
> > m> this
> > >> extensive testing to derive
> > >> your 90% figure?? Assuming you have, I would love to
> > hear a little
> > >> more detail. Regards,Adrian Pitt
> >
> >
> >
> > m> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > m> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > m> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > m> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
> > ---------------------~--> Kwick Pick opens locked car doors,
> > front doors, drawers, briefcases, padlocks, and more. On sale
> > now! http://us.click.yahoo.com/ehaLqB/Fg5DAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
> > --------------------------------------------------------------
> > -------~->
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Kwick Pick opens locked car doors,
front doors, drawers, briefcases,
padlocks, and more. On sale now!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/ehaLqB/Fg5DAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|