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Hello Adrian,
okay. Just let us don't misuse words. To me (and I believe to other
traders) "100% mechanical" obviously means "mechanical trading
system". I hardly take seriously statements implying that "100%
mechanical" means "not a mechanical trading system". As for general
principle, I don't see how it can be measured to be right 90% if not
mechanically i.e. by some objective method. Also, I see no reason to
think about 60% winners in certain circumstances because no objective
tests were shown. (letting alone that % winners itself means nothing
in system testing)
Best regards,
Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
Monday, June 3, 2002, 1:34:22 PM, you wrote:
AP> Exactly...its important to understand that a general principle can in
AP> fact be right 90% of the time when applied loosely or with broad
AP> guidelines, but when you introduce strict mechanical rules and stops the
AP> %wins will always suffer. its only a question of how much it suffers and
AP> how well it maintains a good risk/reward ratio. If it dropped back to
AP> 60% winners in such circumstances I would suggest it to be very
AP> valuable.
AP> Adrian
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Alex Bell [mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx]
>> Sent: Monday, 3 June 2002 5:29 PM
>> To: metatrader108
>> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: SP foracast
>>
>>
>> Hello Greg,
>>
>> You DID say first that "This is Hurst model in action.
>> Proven to be 90% accurate. It is 100% automatic,
>> mechanical and objective."
>>
>> And now you're saying that "It gives you an idea for the
>> trade...", "just one tool, not a mechanical trading system".
>>
>> I wonder do you really understand what words "automatic,
>> mechanical and objective" mean in context of trading or you
>> use them just for a case?
>>
>> Best regards,
>> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>>
>>
>> Monday, June 3, 2002, 10:26:44 AM, you wrote:
>>
>> m> I can answer all these debating questions by saying, trading is an
>> m> art and Hurst cycle indicator is a powerfull tool if you
>> know how to
>> m> use it. It ucovers geometric logic of the market for those who can
>> m> respond to logic. It gives you an idea for the trade and
>> magnitude,
>> m> then you use other tools to nail it. So it gives right
>> ideas 90% of
>> m> the time
>> m> This is just one tool, not a mechanical trading system. Not yet. I
>> m> didn't say it is.
>> m> If you refer to phisicality of the channel, you never understand
>> m> what's for.
>> m> By the way, there are two types of traders. One type are
>> trading on
>> m> reversals, confirmations, break outs and other lagging indicators.
>> m> They kind of glued to the screens and jumping on orders
>> like monkeys.
>> m> Another type trade on pure idea of the market. They buy and sell
>> m> before market reverse the direction.
>>
>> m> If you are a monkey trader, you'll have real hard time
>> understanding
>> m> other style. The only hope for you is to gradually evolve.
>> m> 90% is possible as well as trading at tops and bottoms.
>>
>> m> If some books say don't trade tops and bottoms, perhaps you are
>> m> reading wrong books. 90% of them are.
>>
>> m> Greg.
>>
>> m> P.S. Understanding things is an act of fortune. Good luck.
>>
>>
>>
>> m> --- In realtraders@xxxx, Ira Tunik <irat@xxxx> wrote:
>> >> I don't know what is going on with Yahoogroups, but I sent this out
>> m> at
>> >> about 6:30 this morning and it never got posted. Here is
>> the second
>> >> try. Ira.
>> >>
>> >> I read all this ridicule of Hurst and his channels and wonder if
>> m> anyone
>> >> actually bothered to read the book, do the homework, and study the
>> >> results or if they just like to draw lines and channels and
>> >> postulate. He did not use the
>> m> channels
>> >> to project price, he used tangential extensions off of
>> offset moving
>> >> averages to project price and time. So anyone who is using the
>> >> channels to project price or direction is going to be in a lot of
>> >> trouble. You don't need a
>> m> formula
>> >> to draw the channels, you
>> >> can get the same effect with a series of straight lines connecting
>> m> the
>> >> lows and parallels for the highs. It is not the lines, the
>> m> extensions,
>> >> or the ability to count that will
>> >> make Hurst's system work for you, it is understanding what he is
>> m> trying
>> >> to prove and how it works and what its limitations are.
>> If I am not
>> >> mistaken, and I would have to go back to the book to confirm this,
>> >> that time impacts price less then 30% of the time. That
>> leaves you
>> >> over 70% of the time
>> m> blowing
>> >> in the wind. It is the
>> >> understanding of what is being used and its limitations and
>> m> advantages
>> >> that will help you in your trading and not guess work based upon
>> m> what
>> >> someone else says it is
>> >> supposed to do. So if you believe that understanding times
>> m> function in
>> >> price action will help your trading by the book and study it. Try
>> m> to
>> >> understand what he has
>> >> written not just read the words and look at the charts. Ira.
>> >>
>> >> Adrian Pitt wrote:
>> >>
>> >> Metatrader,Can you please define what you mean by 90% accurate.
>> >> Please don't quote about past prices because every graph of Clyde's
>> m> work
>> >> from
>> >> www.theswingmachine.com (as you have shown us...) are all curved
>> >> fitted and rightly so..that's what Hurst bands do. So the only
>> m> relevant
>> >> statistic here is how accurate
>> >> they are into the future. So you would have to do
>> extensive walk
>> >> forward testing. I'm assuming you have bought Clydes work and done
>> m> this
>> >> extensive testing to derive
>> >> your 90% figure?? Assuming you have, I would love to
>> hear a little
>> >> more detail. Regards,Adrian Pitt
>>
>>
>>
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>>
>>
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