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Hello Greg,
You DID say first that "This is Hurst model in action. Proven to be
90% accurate. It is 100% automatic, mechanical and objective."
And now you're saying that "It gives you an idea for the trade...",
"just one tool, not a mechanical trading system".
I wonder do you really understand what words "automatic, mechanical
and objective" mean in context of trading or you use them just for a
case?
Best regards,
Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
Monday, June 3, 2002, 10:26:44 AM, you wrote:
m> I can answer all these debating questions by saying, trading is an
m> art and Hurst cycle indicator is a powerfull tool if you know how to
m> use it. It ucovers geometric logic of the market for those who can
m> respond to logic. It gives you an idea for the trade and magnitude,
m> then you use other tools to nail it. So it gives right ideas 90% of
m> the time
m> This is just one tool, not a mechanical trading system. Not yet. I
m> didn't say it is.
m> If you refer to phisicality of the channel, you never understand
m> what's for.
m> By the way, there are two types of traders. One type are trading on
m> reversals, confirmations, break outs and other lagging indicators.
m> They kind of glued to the screens and jumping on orders like monkeys.
m> Another type trade on pure idea of the market. They buy and sell
m> before market reverse the direction.
m> If you are a monkey trader, you'll have real hard time understanding
m> other style. The only hope for you is to gradually evolve.
m> 90% is possible as well as trading at tops and bottoms.
m> If some books say don't trade tops and bottoms, perhaps you are
m> reading wrong books. 90% of them are.
m> Greg.
m> P.S. Understanding things is an act of fortune. Good luck.
m> --- In realtraders@xxxx, Ira Tunik <irat@xxxx> wrote:
>> I don't know what is going on with Yahoogroups, but I sent this out
m> at
>> about 6:30 this morning and it never got posted. Here is the second
>> try. Ira.
>>
>> I read all this ridicule of Hurst and his channels and wonder if
m> anyone
>> actually bothered to read the book, do the homework, and study the
>> results or if they just like
>> to draw lines and channels and postulate. He did not use the
m> channels
>> to project price, he used tangential extensions off of offset moving
>> averages to project price
>> and time. So anyone who is using the channels to project price or
>> direction is going to be in a lot of trouble. You don't need a
m> formula
>> to draw the channels, you
>> can get the same effect with a series of straight lines connecting
m> the
>> lows and parallels for the highs. It is not the lines, the
m> extensions,
>> or the ability to count that will
>> make Hurst's system work for you, it is understanding what he is
m> trying
>> to prove and how it works and what its limitations are. If I am not
>> mistaken, and I would
>> have to go back to the book to confirm this, that time impacts price
>> less then 30% of the time. That leaves you over 70% of the time
m> blowing
>> in the wind. It is the
>> understanding of what is being used and its limitations and
m> advantages
>> that will help you in your trading and not guess work based upon
m> what
>> someone else says it is
>> supposed to do. So if you believe that understanding times
m> function in
>> price action will help your trading by the book and study it. Try
m> to
>> understand what he has
>> written not just read the words and look at the charts. Ira.
>>
>> Adrian Pitt wrote:
>>
>> Metatrader,Can you please define what you mean by 90% accurate.
>> Please don't quote about past prices because every graph of Clyde's
m> work
>> from
>> www.theswingmachine.com (as you have shown us...) are all curved
>> fitted and rightly so..that's what Hurst bands do. So the only
m> relevant
>> statistic here is how accurate
>> they are into the future. So you would have to do extensive walk
>> forward testing. I'm assuming you have bought Clydes work and done
m> this
>> extensive testing to derive
>> your 90% figure?? Assuming you have, I would love to hear a little
>> more detail. Regards,Adrian Pitt
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