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John,
You say you think 90% is ludicrous but you expect to be 100% accurate??
LOL
Explain that one please. Then explain why your still happy when you can
ONLY achieve 60%. That must be such a let down when you EXPECT 100%? I
know you trade for yourself with various models, so I have always been
interested in your viewpoint, but your posts today show signs of Hurt's
problem...that he went mad and died.
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, 3 June 2002 12:08 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] SP forcast
>
>
>
> Then prove it and trade it."expectation of 90% decision accuracy
> could be achieved" is hardly a vote of confidence using the
> word "could". I expect to be 100% accurate in a trade but am happy to
> be 60% accurate with a good profit factor.
>
> Proof is real time trade by trades and not"extracting the magic from
> stock market transaction timing". Stock market timers are never 90%
> right.I cringe when I see "magic" in a treatise.
>
> I fully understand such wording as escape hatches.
>
> The simple fact is that 90% accuracy has not been proven real time to
> make real money.
>
> Where Hurst is and why, is meaningless...if one can not take the heat
> of defending a hypothesis or using it to prove it out then something
> is wrong with that person or the hypothesis and not those who ask for
> proof.
>
> Mine is a critique and warranted to see all points of view.I am
> qualified to do that.
>
> I did not start a battle of words...I presented a point of view in
> agreement with Ira.
>
>
>
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: [RT] SP foreacast
> Date: 06/02/2002 08:16pm
>
>
> John,
>
> One of the things that "abstracts" miss are something like is
> on page 140 of the referred work.
>
> "It was found that the expectation of 90% decision accuracy
> could be achieved"
>
> "It is shown that the theory is valid, and that the methods
> work. all YOU need to do is to master the techniques--and
> avoid the psychological barriers inherent in extracting the
> magic from stock transaction timing."
>
> My understanding of why Hurst is not around any more in this
> area is that he got tired of people who knew not what they
> were doing and did not fully understand his work and simply
> got tired of unwarranted criticism from unqualified individuals.
>
> Clyde
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, June 02, 2002 7:44 PM
> Subject: [RT] SP foreacast
>
>
> >
> > I, for one, have no interest in what Clyde is doing with the Hurst
> > work. And no reference of that was made in my post to which is
> > implied.
> >
> > Abstracts are valuable in science to see if there is an area of
> > potential interest. I said I saw none for me.
> >
> > If Hurst died a millionaire using his work then perhaps I would be
> > more enthusiastic. But I do not know that to be the case.
> >
> > No criticism was implied or expressed of anyone on this thread.
> >
> > The essence of what I said simply is that I agreed with Ira. 90%
> > accuracy is hogwash profitability in the real world, and that is my
> > point.
> >
> > Chill out.
> >
> > John
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------ Reply Separator -------------------- Originally
> > From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: Re: [RT] SP foreacast
> > Date: 06/02/2002 06:42pm
> >
> >
> > Valid and well thought out criticism of one's work is
> something that
> > we must accept if we attempt to add to the work of others.
> >
> > There are a total of 223 pages in J.M. Hurst's The Profit Magic of
> > Stock Transaction Timing.
> >
> > There is no way that an "abstract" of this book can give the reader
> > any idea of the amount of information that is contained therein or
> > provide the basis of some kind of criticism of what I am
> trying to do
> > in the area of the Hurst channel.
> >
> > The reference to "optimization" and "curve fitting" is definitely
> out
> > of line with what I have done. "Curve fitting" is exactly what the
> > whole concept of Fourier analysis and projection is about.
> >
> > A Fourier analysis of recent price action becomes the basis to
> > establish the location of the "Hurst Channels" in the near future.
> >
> > One might be interested in what Hurst has to say about
> "curve fitting"
> > and how it can be of significant use in future trading but
> to do that
> > one would have to make the effort and take the time to read Hurst's
> > entire work
> >
> > What I do not understand is:
> >
> > Ira's interpretation:
> >
> > > to draw lines and channels and postulate. He did not use the
> > channels
> > > to project price, he used tangential extensions off of offset
> moving
> > > averages to project price and time. So anyone who is using the
> > >channels to project price or direction is going to be in a lot of
> > trouble.
> > >You don't need a formula to draw the channels, you . . . . .
> >
> > I believe is wrong simply because it has been some time
> since he has
> > thoroughly reviewed this massive amount of information Hurst
> provided
> > and has not understood that Hurst did do projections.
> >
> > Hurst DID advise a method of projecting where channels were
> likely to
> > fall and DID advocate trading at the edges of these
> channels and did
> > do an extensive study of such trading with a relatively few issues.
> >
> > I am of the opinion that if Hurst were active today and with the
> > background that he had in the Fourier techniques that he
> would well be
> > using those methods to project his channels rather than the "hand"
> > sketching method that he used successfully.
> >
> > There is nothing in the way of OPTIMIZATION in any of the
> studies of
> > the Hurst channels that I have presented. I have shown methods
> > whereby we could obtain RATIONAL expectations of the length of
> > important cycles and methods of extrapolating those into the future.
> >
> > All I would ask that if criticism is offered that it be done from
> the
> > basis of a very thorough study of Hurst's work and specific
> detail as
> > to where I am not following the principals he has so
> eloquently laid
> > out.
> >
> > Clyde
> >
> >
> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Sunday, June 02, 2002 4:38 PM
> > Subject: [RT] SP foreacast
> >
> >
> > >
> > > I agree with the Ira post. I have read abstracts of Hurst's work
> and
> > > do not believe it is possible to create a mechanical creature that
> > is
> > > profitable in real life with a 90% accuracy.Invariably
> with such a
> > > system the profit factors fall apart.
> > >
> > > Curve fitting and overoptimization has always fallen apart in my
> > > observations. Plus I do not even know if Hurst traded or was
> simply
> > > presenting a hypothesis for testing.
> > >
> > > John
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally
> > > From: Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > Subject: [RT] SP foracast
> > > Date: 06/02/2002 01:10pm
> > >
> > >
> > > I don't know what is going on with Yahoogroups, but I sent this
> out
> > at
> > > about 6:30 this morning and it never got posted. Here is the
> second
> > > try. Ira.
> > >
> > > I read all this ridicule of Hurst and his channels and wonder if
> > > anyone actually bothered to read the book, do the homework, and
> > > study the results or if they just like
> > > to draw lines and channels and postulate. He did not use the
> > channels
> > > to project price, he used tangential extensions off of offset
> moving
> > > averages to project price
> > > and time. So anyone who is using the channels to project
> price or
> > > direction is going to be in a lot of trouble. You don't need a
> > > formula to draw the channels, you
> > > can get the same effect with a series of straight lines connecting
> > the
> > > lows and parallels for the highs. It is not the lines, the
> > > extensions, or the ability to count that will
> > > make Hurst's system work for you, it is understanding what he is
> > > trying
> > > to prove and how it works and what its limitations are. If I am
> not
> > > mistaken, and I would
> > > have to go back to the book to confirm this, that time impacts
> price
> > > less then 30% of the time. That leaves you over 70% of the time
> > > blowing in the wind. It is the
> > > understanding of what is being used and its limitations and
> > advantages
> > > that will help you in your trading and not guess work based upon
> > what
> > > someone else says it is
> > > supposed to do. So if you believe that understanding times
> function
> > > in
> > > price action will help your trading by the book and study it. Try
> > to
> > > understand what he has
> > > written not just read the words and look at the charts. Ira.
> > >
> > > Adrian Pitt wrote:
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
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