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Jack Frost learned directly from Hamilton Bolton who
learned directly from Elliot. The book is the rules of Elliot that
Ralpl Nelson Elliot laid out. Many though, have changed somewhat over
time. One example is the the C wave count and they most certainly can
be and are often 3's. So the words "end of story" really don't hold much
weight against my hands on experience. Another example would be the contention
that "running a-b-c's" are very rare as Frost contends. In fact during the
impuulse waves of the 90's running a-b-c second waves were very
common.
As far as Glenn Neely he is generally considered an
excellent analyst and its a view I share. His Neo-Wave though is not
exactly Elliot Wave, and certainly immensely more difficult.
While Elliot is certainly an art, one must not be
constrained by what is written in a book somewhere and try to fit the book to
real time trading. One's own observations and the ability to believe what you
see are crucial. So is the imagination requires to follow the princilple without
being bogged down by absolutes which can be counter productive.
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Adrian Pitt
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 12:54 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index
forecast
Frost's work
may be the bible, but its certainly not something you would use to make market
analysis off. That's like leaving school after 6th grade and expecting
to be a university professor. Clearly ridiculous. There is only one work
I regard as the bible, and that speaking from almost 15 years of real time
use. I'm speaking of Neely's book "Mastering Elliott Wave Theory".
I warn readers though it is only for the very serious Elliott student, and
actually not something I would recommend generally.
As for C's
being zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part of a "B' or "X' wave
triangle, or part of a Terminating Triangle. There are NO 3 wave C's in
a non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story. To suggest zig-zag C
waves are common is absurd. How would anyone gain any benefit from EWT
is they never knew whether the C wave was going to be a 3 or 5 wave
affair???? Clearly the theory would be useless. Thankfully,
readers, you can be rest assured Frost and Elliott were generally right.
ALL (except for those highlighted above) 'C' waves in 'abc' are 5 wave
affairs.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Regards,
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Adrian
Pitt
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<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Joe Duffy
[mailto:joeduffy@xxxxxxxxx] Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] SPX
index forecast
When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is now kind of the bible of
Elliot (Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did that all
c's are 5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand for about 8 years (a
while ago) I can say in my experience all C's are not 5's, and a zig-zag C
is common.
---- Original Message -----
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<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index
forecast
Lee,
Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave
c:B advance should not be a zig-zag but a five wave decline
FWIW.
don ewers
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Lee
Morris
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index
forecast
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only
difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the
possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since jan as
wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major rally wave C of B
then the final down move to at or below sept would be wave C of a zig
zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade regardless of if
you are right and this is a baby bull or the second option that this is
a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally should be
very powerful. The only issue I have is with the VIX and P/C ratio, at
the current levels I do not think that we have the fuel for this kind of
rally so I would like to see the final move to your target of 1030 be
fast and furious to scare some people.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002
6:55 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
[RT] SPX index forecast
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I
am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a
contribution. I know that some of you are professionals and I welcome
your comments and insights to my
analysis.
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">It
appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you were
anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then
again touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe
there is a reasonable possibility that the market could move back up
near the turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the
move down. I believe there is an even smaller chance that the market
may even slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn as late
as 5-28.
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My
short term forecast<FONT
face=Arial color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">:
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I
am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-4. My
target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to
5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59
and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the
move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this
projected down move does terminate in the projected target range, it
has the potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire
move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a
significant and sustainable move up<SPAN
style="COLOR: blue">.<SPAN
class=EmailStyle19><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My longer
term forecast:<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Normally my
technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that
we might be about to complete the correction of the move from 9-21 to
1-9, I thought I would take a little longer term
perspective.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">On the
attached and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I have
drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from the
March 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of
2001. I have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward
reaction to the initial down move from the March 2000 high and
connected it to the high made in May of
2001.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">As you can
see these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear
market. Looking at this chart the first indication we have that the
bear market is over, is the penetration of the top trend line and the
fact that the market has traded outside the bear market channel for
most of this year.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My current
time frame for the next low turning point is within four days of
6-4. <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">This time
frame will be reached on this chart in <FONT face=Arial
size=2>the next one
to two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the
next low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame
of the next one to two bars my projected price range <SPAN
class=GramE>is met it will fall just above the upper trend line
at 1025.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">From an
Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted
as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag
correction as <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">labeled on
the chart. <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">With
the <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">"C" wave
terminating at my projected <FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">low
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">turning
point, completing wave two, and setting the stage for the usually
dynamic impulse wave three to begin.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In
conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my
analysis <FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">is the early
stages<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> of a
new B<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">ull market,
and an excellent buying opportunity dead
ahead.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">E
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><IMG id=_x0000_i1025 height=600 alt=DGLChart
width=800>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
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