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<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Joe,
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Joe Duffy
[mailto:joeduffy@xxxxxxxxx] Sent: Sunday, 26 May 2002 7:58
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] SPX
index forecast
Jack Frost learned directly from Hamilton Bolton who learned directly
from Elliot. The book is the rules of Elliot that Ralpl Nelson
Elliot laid out. Many though, have changed somewhat over time. One
example is the the C wave count and they most certainly can be and are
often 3's. So the words "end of story" really don't hold much weight
against my hands on experience. Another example would be the contention that
"running a-b-c's" are very rare as Frost contends. In fact during the impuulse
waves of the 90's running a-b-c second waves were very common. <SPAN
class=608372310-27052002>
Many rules
haven't in fact changed as you have stated, simply refined and expanded
upon. There are in fact few rules at all in the original work.
As I outlined
below, when you have the standard 'abc' pattern (Flat or Zig-Zag) wave 'C''s
are ALWAYS 5 wave structures..no exceptions..AND THAT IS HANDS ON EXPERIENCE
OF 15 YEARS OF DAILY APPLICATION.
Running 'abc'
patterns ARE RARE. Just as massive bubbles that often consist of running
'abc' patterns are rare. The run in the NASDAQ of the 90's WONT be repeated
for decades to come.
<FONT
color=#0000ff size=2>
As far as Glenn Neely he is generally considered an excellent analyst and
its a view I share. His Neo-Wave though is not exactly Elliot Wave, and
certainly immensely more difficult. <FONT
color=#0000ff size=2>
Yes I
agree...an excellent analyst...not sure about trading. Bad trading
though has nothing to do with the validity or otherwise of his method.
And yes it is complicated, but ONLY if
you follow it precisely and use Chapter 3. I do not
do
that.
While Elliot is certainly an art, one must not be constrained by what is
written in a book somewhere and try to fit the book to real time trading.
One's own observations and the ability to believe what you see are crucial. So
is the imagination requires to follow the princilple without being bogged down
by absolutes which can be counter productive. <SPAN
class=608372310-27052002>
Defintely still
an art, but much less so with Neelys work. And yes you must be realistic
and not a theoretical perfectionist or you will quickly go broke and be wrong
a lot.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 12:54
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index
forecast
Frost's work
may be the bible, but its certainly not something you would use to make
market analysis off. That's like leaving school after 6th grade and
expecting to be a university professor. Clearly ridiculous. There is
only one work I regard as the bible, and that speaking from almost 15 years
of real time use. I'm speaking of Neely's book "Mastering Elliott Wave
Theory". I warn readers though it is only for the very serious Elliott
student, and actually not something I would recommend generally.
As for C's
being zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part of a "B' or "X' wave
triangle, or part of a Terminating Triangle. There are NO 3 wave C's
in a non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story. To suggest
zig-zag C waves are common is absurd. How would anyone gain any
benefit from EWT is they never knew whether the C wave was going to be a 3
or 5 wave affair???? Clearly the theory would be useless.
Thankfully, readers, you can be rest assured Frost and Elliott were
generally right. ALL (except for those highlighted above) 'C' waves in
'abc' are 5 wave affairs.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Regards,
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Adrian
Pitt
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Joe Duffy
[mailto:joeduffy@xxxxxxxxx] Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
SPX index forecast
When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is now kind of the bible of
Elliot (Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did that
all c's are 5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand for about 8 years
(a while ago) I can say in my experience all C's are not 5's, and a
zig-zag C is common.
---- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index
forecast
Lee,
Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave
c:B advance should not be a zig-zag but a five wave decline
FWIW.
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Lee
Morris
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index
forecast
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only
difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the
possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since jan
as wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major rally wave C
of B then the final down move to at or below sept would be wave C of a
zig zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade regardless
of if you are right and this is a baby bull or the second option that
this is a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally
should be very powerful. The only issue I have is with the VIX and P/C
ratio, at the current levels I do not think that we have the fuel for
this kind of rally so I would like to see the final move to your
target of 1030 be fast and furious to scare some
people.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 23,
2002 6:55 PMTo:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [RT] SPX index
forecast
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I
am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a
contribution. I know that some of you are professionals and I
welcome your comments and insights to my
analysis.
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">It
appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you were
anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then
again touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I
believe there is a reasonable possibility that the market could move
back up near the turn high over the next couple of days before
resuming the move down. I believe there is an even smaller chance
that the market may even slightly exceed the high and actually make
the turn as late as 5-28.
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My
short term forecast<SPAN
class=EmailStyle19><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">:
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I
am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-4.
My target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7
to 5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of
1106.59 and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8%
retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of
1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the projected
target range, it has the potential to be the end point of the
correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. <SPAN
class=GramE>And could set the stage for a significant and
sustainable move up<SPAN
style="COLOR: blue">.<SPAN
class=EmailStyle19><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My longer
term forecast:<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Normally
my technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw
that we might be about to complete the correction of the move from
9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little longer term
perspective.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">On the
attached and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I have
drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from the
March 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September
of 2001. I have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first
upward reaction to the initial down move from the March 2000 high
and connected it to the high made in May of
2001.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">As you can
see these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear
market. Looking at this chart the first indication we have that the
bear market is over, is the penetration of the top trend line and
the fact that the market has traded outside the bear market channel
for most of this year.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My current
time frame for the next low turning point is within four days of
6-4. <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">This time
frame will be reached on this chart in <FONT
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">the next one to two
bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next
low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of
the next one to two bars my projected price range <SPAN
class=GramE>is met it will fall just above the upper trend
line at 1025.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">From an
Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be
interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C
zig zag correction as <FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">labeled on
the chart. <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">With
the <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">"C" wave
terminating at my projected <FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">low
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">turning
point, completing wave two, and setting the stage for the usually
dynamic impulse wave three to begin.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In
conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my
analysis <FONT face=Arial
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">is the
early stages<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> of a
new B<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">ull
market, and an excellent buying opportunity dead
ahead.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">E
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><IMG id=_x0000_i1025 height=600 alt=DGLChart
width=800>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
size=3>******************************************************************This
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