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i have seen/heard neely make some excellent and well publicized "calls".
but, i have also heard several close neely-watchers recite a string of
predictions which were 100 % wrong. now, no system is perfect or close to
it, but a system which is so complex and complete and interpreted by its
inventor/discoveror should have a much better record than what i have
seen/heard related.
in short, or long, i don't see that his system is any better than any
others and it seems to promise more. like all these systems and
proprietary indicators they seemd to quickly become self-absorbed and lose
touch with the market, herself.
h1/dw
On Mon, 27 May 2002, Adrian Pitt wrote:
> I can't answer that question because 1. I don't do wave counts on the US
> markets and 2. I don't keep any sort of record of the regularity of
> pattern types. Sorry.
>
> Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: M. Simms [mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, 26 May 2002 9:16 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
>
> I have Neely's book...and I can attest to it's completeness....and
> complexity. The number of rules explained in that bible are staggering.
> if AGET or any other EWT software implements these rules in exacting
> detail, I would be really impressed.
>
> One key issue re: "As for C's being zig-zags, that's only true if the C
> wave was part of a "B' or "X' wave triangle, or part of a Terminating
> Triangle. "
> For the S&P or Dow Jones average - hourly chart, what percentage of C
> waves fall into the classification above ?
> 10%, 30%, 50% ?
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Adrian Pitt [mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 12:55 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
>
> Frost's work may be the bible, but its certainly not something you would
> use to make market analysis off. That's like leaving school after 6th
> grade and expecting to be a university professor. Clearly ridiculous.
> There is only one work I regard as the bible, and that speaking from
> almost 15 years of real time use. I'm speaking of Neely's book
> "Mastering Elliott Wave Theory". I warn readers though it is only for
> the very serious Elliott student, and actually not something I would
> recommend generally.
> As for C's being zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part of a
> "B' or "X' wave triangle, or part of a Terminating Triangle. There are
> NO 3 wave C's in a non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story. To
> suggest zig-zag C waves are common is absurd. How would anyone gain any
> benefit from EWT is they never knew whether the C wave was going to be a
> 3 or 5 wave affair???? Clearly the theory would be useless.
> Thankfully, readers, you can be rest assured Frost and Elliott were
> generally right. ALL (except for those highlighted above) 'C' waves in
> 'abc' are 5 wave affairs.
>
> Regards,
>
> Adrian Pitt
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Joe Duffy [mailto:joeduffy@xxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
>
> When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is now kind of the bible of
> Elliot (Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did that
> all c's are 5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand for about 8 years
> (a while ago) I can say in my experience all C's are not 5's, and a
> zig-zag C is common.
>
> ---- Original Message -----
> From: Don <mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> Ewers
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
> Lee,
> Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave c:B advance should not be a
> zig-zag but a five wave decline FWIW.
> don ewers
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Lee <mailto:LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx> Morris
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45 PM
> Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
> I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only
> difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the
> possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since jan as
> wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major rally wave C of B
> then the final down move to at or below sept would be wave C of a zig
> zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade regardless of if
> you are right and this is a baby bull or the second option that this is
> a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally should be
> very powerful. The only issue I have is with the VIX and P/C ratio, at
> the current levels I do not think that we have the fuel for this kind of
> rally so I would like to see the final move to your target of 1030 be
> fast and furious to scare some people.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 6:55 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
>
> I am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a
> contribution. I know that some of you are professionals and I welcome
> your comments and insights to my analysis.
>
> It appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you were
> anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then again
> touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe there
> is a reasonable possibility that the market could move back up near the
> turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the move down. I
> believe there is an even smaller chance that the market may even
> slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn as late as 5-28.
>
> My short term forecast:
>
> I am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-4. My
> target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to
> 5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59
> and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the
> move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this
> projected down move does terminate in the projected target range, it has
> the potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire move
> from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a significant and
> sustainable move up.
> My longer term forecast:
> Normally my technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I
> saw that we might be about to complete the correction of the move from
> 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little longer term perspective.
> On the attached and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I have
> drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from the March
> 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of 2001. I
> have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward reaction
> to the initial down move from the March 2000 high and connected it to
> the high made in May of 2001.
> As you can see these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of
> the bear market. Looking at this chart the first indication we have that
> the bear market is over, is the penetration of the top trend line and
> the fact that the market has traded outside the bear market channel for
> most of this year.
> My current time frame for the next low turning point is within four days
> of 6-4. This time frame will be reached on this chart in the next one to
> two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next
> low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of the
> next one to two bars my projected price range is met it will fall just
> above the upper trend line at 1025.
> >From an Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be
> interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig
> zag correction as labeled on the chart. With the "C" wave terminating at
> my projected low turning point, completing wave two, and setting the
> stage for the usually dynamic impulse wave three to begin.
> In conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis is the
> early stages of a new Bull market, and an excellent buying opportunity
> dead ahead.
> E
> DGLChart
>
>
>
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