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I
agree on the id of flats, although I have recently started looking for at least
a 38% RT in time if a mkt hits my price quickly but enough time has not passed I
at least start thinking "possible flat"
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers
[mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, May 28, 2002 1:58
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] SPX
index forecast
Lee,
Yes I look for divergence on the 5/17 for ABC
corrections. Flats or irregular corrections are a bit more difficult and
my comments are strictly for the zig-zag ABC's.
I have had little success, identifying a flat (or
an irregular correction) until the are well over and find one saying, "hey
that must have been a flat" :-)
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Lee Morris
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, May 27, 2002 9:06
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index
forecast
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Don, do you normally see divergences btw A and C waves, in what
oscillator and is there a difference in the divergence depending on the
corrective pattern (flat, ZZ, expanded flat). Also have you seen a pattern
of divergence in triangles.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers [<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent:
Monday, May 27, 2002 8:55 PMTo:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] SPX index
forecastChris,I am not sure I agree. I
have seen your manual counts at times and comparedthem to ones I have
running on a similar chart and they are not the same.Although not pure
Elliott I think AGET's use of primarily the 5/35oscillator to find the
wave 3 (as well as the 10/70 to measure extremeextensions and the 5/17
to measure internal counts) lays out a wholediffernet picture than you
may be seeing? From my use of over 7 years Icould not do
counts correctly without these, including ABC's looking
fordivergence. When to that you add the wave 4 channel's and we
are not takingthe same things (warns of expanded count change).
Just my two cents, butmaybe consider adding them and you may find you
are counting a verydifferent count :-)Stand on my
statement, if doing "correct counts" wave C's have 5 waves.don
ewers----- Original Message -----From: "chrischeatham"
<nchrisc@xxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 10:17
AMSubject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast> I have
concluded that the 3 and 5 Elliott rules just don't hold true.> A
wave 1 can be a 3, a wave 5 can be a 3. These happen over and over>
and over again. As to zig zag c waves, how can you determine by>
elliott rules if you are not really dealing with abc-x-abc instead
of> an abc? This gets you to the same place with a zig zag
termination of> a correction.>> The other thing I
have concluded is that Andrews, Babson, etc.> geometry trumps
elliott counts most of the time.>> My two cents,>
Chris>>> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Adrian Pitt"
<apitt@xxxx> wrote:> > Frost's work may be the bible, but
its certainly not something you> would> > use to make
market analysis off. That's like leaving school after>
6th> > grade and expecting to be a university professor.
Clearly> ridiculous.> > There is only one work I regard
as the bible, and that speaking from> > almost 15 years of real
time use. I'm speaking of Neely's book> > "Mastering
Elliott Wave Theory". I warn readers though it is only>
for> > the very serious Elliott student, and actually not
something I would> > recommend generally.> > As for
C's being zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part> of
a> > "B' or "X' wave triangle, or part of a Terminating
Triangle. There> are> > NO 3 wave C's in a
non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story.> To> >
suggest zig-zag C waves are common is absurd. How would
anyone> gain any> > benefit from EWT is they never knew
whether the C wave was going to> be a> > 3 or 5 wave
affair???? Clearly the theory would be useless.> >
Thankfully, readers, you can be rest assured Frost and Elliott
were> > generally right. ALL (except for those highlighted
above) 'C'> waves in> > 'abc' are 5 wave
affairs.> >> > Regards,> >> >
Adrian Pitt> > -----Original Message-----> > From: Joe
Duffy [mailto:joeduffy@xxxx]> > Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49
AM> > To: realtraders@xxxx> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX
index forecast> >> >> > When Jack Frost
wrote analysis part what is now kind of the bible of> > Elliot
(Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did>
that> > all c's are 5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand
for about 8> years> > (a while ago) I can say in my
experience all C's are not 5's, and a> > zig-zag C is
common.> >> > ---- Original Message -----> >
From: Don <mailto:dbewers@xxxx> Ewers> > To:
realtraders@xxxx> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22
PM> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast> >>
> Lee,> > Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave c:B
advance should not> be a> > zig-zag but a five wave
decline FWIW.> > don ewers> > ----- Original Message
-----> > From: Lee <mailto:LMorris@xxxx>
Morris> > To: realtraders@xxxx> > Sent: Thursday, May
23, 2002 9:45 PM> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast>
>> > I think you are right on with both the short and long.
The only> > difference I have is that on the long range forecast
I favor the> > possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave
A (of B), since> jan as> > wave B (which is close to
ending) and the next major rally wave C> of B> > then the
final down move to at or below sept would be wave C of a>
zig> > zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade
regardless of> if> > you are right and this is a baby
bull or the second option that> this is> > a bear mkt
rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally should>
be> > very powerful. The only issue I have is with the VIX and
P/C ratio,> at> > the current levels I do not think that
we have the fuel for this> kind of> > rally so I would
like to see the final move to your target of 1030> be> >
fast and furious to scare some people.> > -----Original
Message-----> > From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxx]> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 6:55
PM> > To: realtraders@xxxx> > Subject: [RT] SPX index
forecast> >> >> > I am pretty new to this
list and this is my first attempt at a> > contribution. I know
that some of you are professionals and I> welcome> > your
comments and insights to my analysis.> >> > It appears
that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you>
were> > anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59
and then> again> > touched that level on an intra-day
basis the next day. I believe> there> > is a reasonable
possibility that the market could move back up near> the>
> turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the
move> down. I> > believe there is an even smaller chance
that the market may even> > slightly exceed the high and
actually make the turn as late as 5-28.> >> > My short
term forecast:> >> > I am anticipating the next low
turn to occur within four days of 6-> 4. My> > target
price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to> >
5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of>
1106.59> > and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8%
retracement of> the> > move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a
target price of 1033.46. If this> > projected down move does
terminate in the projected target range,> it has> > the
potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire>
move> > from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a
significant and> > sustainable move up.> > My longer
term forecast:> > Normally my technical focus is on a much
shorter time frame, but> when I> > saw that we might be
about to complete the correction of the move> from> >
9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little longer term>
perspective.> > On the attached and or pictured chart (I will
attempt to do both) I> have> > drawn a trend line from
the bottom of the first move down from the> March> > 2000
high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of> 2001.
I> > have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first
upward> reaction> > to the initial down move from the
March 2000 high and connected it> to> > the high made in
May of 2001.> > As you can see these trend lines clearly define
the trading channel> of> > the bear market. Looking at
this chart the first indication we have> that> > the bear
market is over, is the penetration of the top trend line>
and> > the fact that the market has traded outside the bear
market channel> for> > most of this year.> > My
current time frame for the next low turning point is within four>
days> > of 6-4. This time frame will be reached on this chart in
the next> one to> > two bars. Notice where my target
price range (1034-1027) for the> next> > low turning
point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of> the>
> next one to two bars my projected price range is met it will
fall> just> > above the upper trend line at 1025.>
> From an Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could
be> > interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a
simple A-B-C> zig> > zag correction as labeled on the
chart. With the "C" wave> terminating at> > my projected
low turning point, completing wave two, and setting the> > stage
for the usually dynamic impulse wave three to begin.> > In
conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis> is
the> > early stages of a new Bull market, and an excellent
buying> opportunity> > dead ahead.> > E>
> DGLChart> >> >> >> >
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