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Re: [RT] SPX index forecast



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When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is now kind of the bible of Elliot 
(Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did that all c's are 
5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand for about 8 years (a while ago) I can 
say in my experience all C's are not 5's, and a zig-zag C is common. 
 
---- Original Message ----- 
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
  Don 
  Ewers 
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22 
  PM
  Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index 
forecast
  
  Lee, 
  Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave c:B 
  advance should not be a zig-zag but a five wave decline FWIW.
  don ewers
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
    Lee Morris 
    
    To: <A 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    
    Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45 
    PM
    Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index 
    forecast
    
    I 
    think you are right on with both the short and long. The only difference I 
    have is that on the long range forecast I favor the possibility of the move 
    from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since jan as wave B (which is close to 
    ending) and the next major rally wave C of B then the final down move to at 
    or below sept would be wave C of a zig zag. Practically it does not change 
    how I would trade regardless of if you are right and this is a baby bull or 
    the second option that this is a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the 
    upcoming rally should be very powerful. The only issue I have is with the 
    VIX and P/C ratio, at the current levels I do not think that we have the 
    fuel for this kind of rally so I would like to see the final move to your 
    target of 1030 be fast and furious to scare some people.
    
      <FONT face=Tahoma 
      size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Hill, Ernie 
      [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 6:55 
      PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [RT] SPX 
      index forecast
      
      <FONT face=Arial color=black 
      size=2><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I 
      am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a contribution. 
      I know that some of you are professionals and I welcome your comments and 
      insights to my analysis.
      <FONT face=Arial color=black 
      size=2><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
      <FONT face=Arial color=black 
      size=2><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">It 
      appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you were 
      anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then again 
      touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe there is 
      a reasonable possibility that the market could move back up near the turn 
      high over the next couple of days before resuming the move down. I believe 
      there is an even smaller chance that the market may even slightly exceed 
      the high and actually make the turn as late as 
      5-28.
      <FONT face=Arial color=black 
      size=2><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
      <FONT face=Arial color=black 
      size=3><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My 
      short term forecast<FONT 
      face=Arial color=black size=2><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">:
      <FONT face=Arial color=black 
      size=2><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
      <FONT face=Arial color=black 
      size=2><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I 
      am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-4. My 
      target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 
      yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we 
      arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 
      9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move 
      does terminate in the projected target range, it has the potential to be 
      the end point of the correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. 
      And could set the stage for a significant and 
      sustainable move up<SPAN 
      style="COLOR: blue">.<SPAN 
      class=EmailStyle19><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My longer term 
      forecast:<SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Normally my 
      technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that we 
      might be about to complete the correction of the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I 
      thought I would take a little longer term 
      perspective.
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">On the attached 
      and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I have drawn a trend 
      line from the bottom of the first move down from the March 2000 high 
      connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of 2001. I have also 
      drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward reaction to the 
      initial down move from the March 2000 high and connected it to the high 
      made in May of 2001.
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">As you can see 
      these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear market. 
      Looking at this chart the first indication we have that the bear market is 
      over, is the penetration of the top trend line and the fact that the 
      market has traded outside the bear market channel for most of this 
      year.
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My current time 
      frame for the next low turning point is within four days of 
      6-4. <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">This time frame 
      will be reached on this chart in <FONT face=Arial 
      size=2>the next one to 
      two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next low 
      turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of the next 
      one to two bars my projected price range is met 
      it will fall just above the upper trend line at 1025. 
      
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">From an Elliott 
      wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted as a wave 
      one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag correction 
      as <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">labeled on the 
      chart. <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">With 
      the <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">"C" wave 
      terminating at my projected <FONT face=Arial color=black 
      size=2><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">low 
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">turning point, 
      completing wave two, and setting the stage for the usually dynamic impulse 
      wave three to begin.
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In conclusion 
      what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis <SPAN 
      class=GramE><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">is the early 
      stages<SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> of a 
      new B<SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">ull market, and 
      an excellent buying opportunity dead ahead.
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">E
      <IMG 
      id=_x0000_i1025 height=600 alt=DGLChart 
      width=800>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT 
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