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For every study you can show me that says there is no connection between
our behavior and the Lunar cycle I can show you two that prove there is a
relationship. One of the major TV mags just gave recognition to an MD who
has latched onto the Chronobioligical research of Pharmacologist Dr. Ralph
Morris, University of Illinois at Chicago, who has proven that both diurnal
cycles and lunar cycles can have a profound influence on how drugs impact
the human body.
For those interested in taking advantages of whatever works, the Moon is a
very small part of the cyclic picture. The big event for Tuesday, June 12
was at 1:00 PM EDT when Mars was 180 deg. Jupiter. Please note that this was
the last pullback before the S&P 500 sprinted for 2 1/2 hours and more than
$30 in price. In the following forecast, which was sent out June 10, and
which was offered for free to this list by request, the big number for June
12 is at
1 PM and the daily trend indication is for an afternoon recovery. The -8 for
C., as indicated in the free for the asking Tutorial that was offered to
this list, indicates the probability for a low at 1:00 PM and that the time
window should extend for four hours before that time and then an opposite
move (in this case up) for the following 4 hours and that the likely
magnitude should be about $32 on the S&P 500. So, that one should exit this
trade on a $32 swing from the low that occurred during the approaching time
window = 9:00 AM - 1 PM or on the close, or on a $3 stop loss under the
lows, whichever occurs first.
Anyway, I post the following for your entertainment pleasure only. If
anyone would like some money management rules on how I would use this
information, I will send upon private request for free but on the promise
you will study and monitor it. On this same promise, I will send the current
two week forecast. I will also send an educational review of the previous
two weeks. MS Word 2000 is required to read these documents.
One final note: Am I saying that knowing this information will make you a
good trader?
Absolutely not! Does knowing the weather forecast make for a good sailor?
Absolutely not!
One must be adept at sailing before taking a boat out into serious waters.
However, any sailor who would go sailing without first checking the weather
is a fool. What I am saying is that the times I list are key times when
there is a higher than normal probability for the "market weather" to change
and that one should be alert and prepared at those times to tact or trim
ones sails accordingly. I feel that navigating the market waters without
this information puts one at a large disadvantage.
Caveat: This involves forecasting human behavior. This is not
physics.This means that some of these forecasts can and will be wrong
However, I think I can easily surpass the track record of most Meteoroligist
(unless you live in San Diego) or the flip of a coin. The real challenge
here is to rise to the level that is an acceptable forecasting accurancy for
most social scientists. How many Economists can you name that forecast with
greater than 70% accuracy? I bet the list is very short. Maybe that is why
its called the "Dismal Science"?
Nautically,
Norman
nwinski@xxxxxxxx
All times are EDT (GMT -4) or same as NYC.
June 12 – minor pull back day, with some firming into closing bell. Could
be very whippy – choppy. Stay on your toes.
A. = 10:29 AM = +4
B. = 12:37 PM = +1
C. = 1:00 PM = -8
D. = 1:34 PM = + 4
E. = 2:28 PM = - 2
F. = 2:58 PM = -2
G. = 3:10 PM = +2
H. = 3:36 PM = -2
June 13 = moderate up and then down for little net change
A. = 9:54 AM + 8 (if big up opening, look for top here)
B. = 1:42 PM 8N (possible retest high)
June 14 = most negative day of the week, should be a sizeable down
A. = 12:40 AM = -32
B. = 1:04 PM = FYI Tone Change
C. = 3:49 PM = -2
D. = 3:49 PM = -8
June 15 = market bounces right back with a moderate up day led by computers
and electronics. Late afternoon sell off is likely.
A. = 1:13 PM = -2
B. = 1:54 PM = -2
C. = 2:57 PM = +8 (market starts losing upside momentum)
D. = 3:37 PM = +4 = may retest high at C then some weakness into close.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, June 12, 2001 10:05 PM
Subject: [RT] Fw: Skeptic's Dictionary full moon and lunar effects.htm
> A fairly asute astronomer emailed me this recently. "Maybe the most
> important point made is the statement "Some people even buy and sell
stocks
> according to phases of the moon, "a method probably as sucessful" as many
> others". Bottom line if "whatever you are doing" works, don't fix it and
> don't try to convince others it works, to each their own?
> don ewers
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Skeptic's Dictionary: full moon and lunar effects
> Robert Todd Carroll
>
> SkepDic.com
> RE: full moon and lunar effects
>
> The full moon has been linked to crime, suicide, mental illness,
> disasters, accidents, birthrates, fertility, and werewolves, among other
> things. Some people even buy and sell stocks according to phases of the
> moon, a method probably as successful as many others. Numerous studies
have
> tried to find lunar effects. So far, the studies have failed to establish
> anything of interest, except that the idea of the full moon definitely
sends
> some lunatics (after luna, the Latin word for moon) over the edge. (Lunar
> effects that have been found have little or nothing to do with human
> behavior, e.g., the discovery of a slight effect of the moon on global
> temperature,* which in turn might have an effect on the growth of
plants.*)
>
> Ivan Kelly, James Rotton and Roger Culver examined over 100 studies
on
> lunar effects and concluded that the studies have failed to show a
reliable
> and significant correlation (i.e., one not likely due to chance) between
the
> full moon, or any other phase of the moon, and each of the following:
>
>
> -the homicide rate
> -traffic accidents
> -crisis calls to police or fire stations
> -domestic violence
> -births of babies
> -suicide
> -major disasters
> -casino payout rates
> -assassinations
> -kidnappings
> -aggression by professional hockey players
> -violence in prisons
> -psychiatric admissions
> -agitated behavior by nursing home residents
> -assaults
> -gunshot wounds
> -stabbings
> -emergency room admissions
> -behavioral outbursts of psychologically challenged rural adults
> -lycanthropy
> -vampirism
> -alcoholism
> -sleep walking
> -epilepsy
>
> If so many studies have failed to prove a significant correlation
> between the full moon and anything, why do so many people believe in these
> lunar myths? Kelly, Rotton, and Culver suspect four factors: media
effects,
> folklore and tradition, misconceptions, and cognitive biases. I would add
a
> fifth factor: communal reinforcement.
>
> the media perpetuates lunar myths
>
> Kelly, et al., note that lunar myths are frequently presented in
films
> and works of fiction. "With the constant media repetition of an
association
> between the full moon and human behavior it is not surprising that such
> beliefs are widespread in the general public," they say. Reporters also
> "favor those who claim that the full moon influences behavior." It
wouldn't
> be much of a story if the moon was full and nothing happened, they note.
> Anecdotal evidence for lunar effects is not hard to find and reporters lap
> it up, even though such evidence is unreliable for establishing
significant
> correlations. Relying on personal experience ignores the possibility of
> self-deception and confirmation bias. Such evidence may be unreliable,
but
> it is nonetheless persuasive to the uncritical mind.
>
> Folklore and tradition:
>
> Many lunar myths are rooted in folklore. For example, an ancient
> Assyrian/Babylonian fragment stated that "A woman is fertile according to
> the moon." Such notions have been turned into widespread misconceptions
> about fertility and birthrates. For example, Eugen Jonas, a Slovakian
> psychiatrist, was inspired by this bit of folklore to create a method of
> birth control and fertility largely rooted in astrological superstitions.
> The belief that there are more births during a full moon persists today
> among many educated people. Scientific studies, however, have failed to
find
> any significant correlation between the full moon and number of births
(See
> "Lunar phase and birth rate: A fifty-year critical review," by R. Martens,
> I. Kelly, and D. H. Saklofske, Psychological Reports, 63, 923-934, "Lunar
> phase and birthrate: An update," by I. Kelly and R. Martens, Psychological
> Reports, 75, 507-511). In 1991, Benski and Gerin reported that they had
> analyzed birthdays of 4,256 babies born in a clinic in France and "found
> them equally distributed throughout the synodic (phase) lunar cycle"
(Kelly,
> et al. 1996, 19). In 1994, Italian researchers Periti and Biagiotti
reported
> on their study of 7,842 spontaneous deliveries over a 5-year period at a
> clinic in Florence. They found "no relationship between moon phase and
> number of spontaneous deliveries" (Kelly, et al. 1996, 19).
>
> Despite the fact that there is no evidence of a significant
> correlation between phases of the moon and fertility, some people not only
> maintain that there is, they have a "scientific" explanation for the
> non-existent correlation. According to "Angela" of AstraConceptions at
> fertilityrhythms.com,
>
> ...photic (light) signals sent by the lens and retina of the eyes
> are converted into hormone signals by the pineal gland. It is the pineal
> gland which signals the onset of puberty in humans and plays a part in the
> fertility rhythms of all species.
>
> In animals which reproduce seasonally, it is the changing light
> patterns which trigger the fertility cycle. The gradual change in both the
> length of day and the changing angle of the sun in the sky (caused by
> earth's motion) is interpreted by the pineal gland as a signal to commence
> the fertility season.
>
> Of course, humans do not reproduce seasonally. Our fertility
cycles
> exhibit an obvious monthly rhythm. The light source which has a monthly
> periodicity is, of course, the Moon.
>
> It is interesting to note that menstruation is actually a shedding
> process. Just as the average menstrual cycle is 28 days in length, the
human
> body sheds a layer of skin approximately every 28 days.
>
> Yes, that is very interesting to note...if you are interested in
> sympathetic magic. (The author also finds it noteworthy that animals which
> reproduce seasonally also shed their coats seasonally.) The author
continues
>
> ...it is not only the changing day length but also the changing
> angular position of the sun which triggers this process; the pineal gland
> receives photic (light) impressions and converts these into hormonal
> messages which signal the onset of these cycles.
>
> With humans the cycles of fertility (and shedding) are triggered
by
> photic impressions as well. Yet our cycles have a monthly periodicity
which
> is obviously synchronized with fluctuations of the lunar light.
>
> Obviously. However, the light of the moon is a very minor source of
> light in most women's lives, and is no more likely than the moon's
> gravitational force to have a significant effect upon a woman's ovulation.
> Furthermore, the average menstrual cycle is 28 days but varies from woman
to
> woman and month to month, while the length of the lunar month is a
> consistent 29.53 days.* Some of us have noticed that these cycles are not
> identical. Furthermore, it would seem odd that natural selection would
favor
> a method of reproduction for a species like ours that depended on the
> weather. Clouds are bound to be irregularly and frequently blocking
> moonlight, which would seem to hinder rather than enhance our species'
> chance for survival.
>
> Some mythmakers believe that long ago women all bled in sync with
the
> moon, but civilization and indoor electric lighting (or even the discovery
> of fire by primitive humans) has messed up their rhythmic cycle. This
theory
> may seem plausible until one remembers that there are quite a few other
> mammals on the planet who have not been affected by firelight or
> civilization's indoor lighting and, with the exception of the opossum,
their
> cycles aren't in harmony with the moon. In the lemur, on the other hand,
> "estrus and sex tend to occur around the time of the full moon."* In
short,
> given the large number of types of mammals on our planet, one would expect
> that by chance some species' estrus and menstrual cycles would harmonize
> with lunar cycles. It is doubtful that there is anything of metaphysical
> significance in this.
>
> What we do know is that there has been very little research on
> hormonal or neurochemical changes during lunar phases. James Rotton's
search
> of the literature "failed to uncover any studies linking lunar cycles to
> substances that have been implicated as possible correlates of stress and
> aggression (e.g., serotonin, melatonin, epinephrine, norepinephrine,
> testosterone, cortisol, vasopressin [directly relevant to fluid content],
> growth hormone, pH, 17-OHCS, adrenocrotropic hormone)."* One would think
> that this area would be well-studied, since hormones and neurochemicals
are
> known to affect menstruation and behavior.
>
> Misconceptions:
>
> Kelly et al. note that misconceptions about such things as the
moon's
> effect on tides have contributed to lunar mythology. Many people seem to
> think that since the moon affects the ocean's tides, it must be so
powerful
> that it affects the human body as well. It is actually a very weak tidal
> force. A mother holding her child "will exert 12 million times as much
tidal
> force on her child as the moon" (Kelly et al., 1996, 25). Astronomer
George
> O. Abell claims that the moon's gravitational pull is less than that of a
> mosquito (Abell 1979). Despite these physical facts, there is still
> widespread belief that the moon can cause earthquakes. It doesn't; nor
does
> the sun, which exerts much less tidal force on the earth than the moon.*
>
> The fact that the human body is mostly water largely contributes to
> the notion that the moon should have a powerful effect upon the human body
> and therefore an effect upon behavior. It is claimed by many that the
earth
> and the human body both are 80% water. This is false. Eighty percent of
the
> surface of the earth is water. Furthermore, the moon only affects
unbounded
> bodies of water, while the water in the human body is bounded.
>
> Also, the tidal force of the moon on the earth depends on its
distance
> from earth, not its phase. Whereas the synodic period is 29.53 days, it
> takes 27.5 days for the moon to move in its elliptical orbit from perigee
to
> perigee (or apogee to apogee). Perigee (when the moon is closest to earth)
> "can occur at any phase of the synodic cycle" (Kelly et al. 1990, 989).
> Higher tides do occur at new and full moons, but not because the moon's
> gravitational pull is stronger at those times. Rather, the tides are
higher
> then because "the sun, earth, and moon are in a line and the tidal force
of
> the sun joins that of the moon at those times to produce higher tides"
> (Kelly et al. 1990, 989).
>
> Many of the misconceptions about the moon's gravitational effect on
> the tides, as well as several other lunar misconceptions, seem to have
been
> generated by Arnold Lieber in The Lunar Effect (1978), republished in 1996
> as How the Moon Affects You. Leiber incorrectly predicted a catastrophic
> earthquake would hit California in 1982 due to the coincidental alignment
of
> the moon and planets.
>
> Cognitive biases and communal reinforcement:
>
> Finally, many believe in lunar myths because they have heard them
> repeated many times by members of the mass media, by police officers,
> nurses, doctors, social workers, and other people with influence. Once
many
> people believe something and enjoy a significant amount of communal
> reinforcement, they get very selective about the type of data they pay
> attention to in the future. If one believes that during a full moon there
is
> an increase in accidents, one will notice when accidents occur during a
full
> moon, but be inattentive to the moon when accidents occur at other times.
If
> something strange happens and there is a full moon at the time, a causal
> connection will be assumed. If something strange happens and there is no
> full moon, no connection is made, but the event is not seen as
> counterevidence to the belief in full moon causality. Memories get
> selective, and perhaps even distorted, to favor a full moon hypothesis. A
> tendency to do this over time strengthens one's belief in the relationship
> between the full moon and a host of unrelated effects.
>
> The moon, madness and suicide:
>
> Probably the most widely believed myth about the full moon is that
it
> is associated with madness. However, in examining over 100 studies, Kelly,
> Rotton and Culver found that "phases of the moon accounted for no more
than
> 3/100 of 1 percent of the variability in activities usually termed lunacy"
> (1996, 18). According to James Rotton, "such a small percentage is too
close
> to zero to be of any theoretical, practical, or statistical interest or
> significance."*
>
> Finally, the notion that there is a lunar influence on suicide is
also
> unsubstantiated. Martin, Kelly and Saklofske reviewed numerous studies
done
> over nearly three decades and found no significant association between
> phases of the moon and suicide deaths, attempted suicides, or suicide
> threats. In 1997, Gutiérrez-García and Tusell studied 897 suicide deaths
in
> Madrid and found "no significant relationship between the synodic cycle
and
> the suicide rate" (1997, 248). These studies, like others which have
failed
> to find anything interesting happening during the full moon, have gone
> largely, but not completely*, unreported in the press.
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> update Feb 1, 2000: According to Allan Hall of the Sunday-Times,
> German researchers Hans-Joachim Mittmeyer of the University of Tübingen
and
> Norbert Filipp from the Health Institute of Reutlingen claim that "a study
> of police reports for 50 new and full Moon cycles" shows that the moon is
> "responsible for binge drinking."
>
> According to Hall, Mittmeyer and Filipp claim in their paper
"Alcohol
> Consumption and the Moon's Influence" to have studied police arrest
reports
> and blood-alcohol tests of 16,495 people and Mittmeyer said "The results
> show there is a definite correlation between new and full Moons and the
> amount of alcohol consumed."
>
> Hall writes:
>
> More of those with an excess of 2ml of alcohol per 100ml of blood
> inside them - drunk, according to German law - were caught by police
during
> the five-day full Moon cycle.
>
> On average 175 drink[sic]-drivers per day were caught in two
German
> states two days before a full Moon, 161 were caught during the full Moon
> cycle and the figure dropped to about 120 per day at other times.
>
> This very unclear statement has to be interpreted. I took it to mean
> that an average of 175 drunk drivers were caught each day on days one and
> two of the five-day cycle. Thus, if the average for the whole five-day
cycle
> was only 161, there were substantially fewer drunk drivers caught on the
> night of the full moon. Thus, it appeared to me that the researchers were
> not able to correlate the full moon with an increase in arrests, so they
> created 'the full moon cycle', a five day period, which gave them the
> statistical correlations they were looking for.
>
> Apparently, however, I was wrong in my interpretation of Hall's
> meaning and Hall erred in his reading of a report from the German Press
> Agency DPA which erred in its reading of the original paper which erred in
> its interpretation of the data.
>
> Jan Willem Nienhuys, a mathematician in the Eindhoven (Netherlands)
> University of Technology, claims that "Hall's story is a garbled version
of
> a story by the German Press Agency DPA." According to Nienhuys, Hall
> invented the notion of a five-day full Moon cycle; the expression is not
> used by Mittmeyer and Filipp in their paper. Furthermore, 668 of the
16,495
> arrested and tested were found to be sober, leaving 15,827 with alcohol in
> their blood, but only 4,512 with more than 0.2 percent blood alcohol
(i.e.,
> drunk).
>
> According to Nienhuys, the 161 figure refers to the average number
of
> drunk drivers arrested on any given date in the lunar month; he believes
> this number was arrived at by dividing 4,512 by 28 (rather than 29.53, the
> length of a lunar month) and hence should be 153, not 161. About the only
> thing Hall got right, says Nienhuys, is that Mittmeyer and Filipp do claim
> to have found a significant correlation between the moon and excessive
> drinking. He notes that the pair provide graphs but no statistical
analysis
> of their data. When such an analysis is done, says Nienhuys, one discovers
> that the study is "pompous pseudoscience." According to Nienhuys, a
standard
> statistical test yields p-values which show that there is nothing to
> investigate.
>
> Here is the data, according to Nienhuys. Day 0 is the day of the new
> moon and day 14 is the full moon.
>
> day drunks drinkers, including drunks
> 0 145 551
> 1 160 528
> 2 162 552
> 3 122 527
> 4 162 538
> 5 157 531
> 6 156 504
> 7 158 560
> 8 140 523
> 9 152 540
> 10 150 552
> 11 146 477
> 12 173 563
> 13 150 545
> 14 150 523
> 15 149 498
> 16 145 543
> 17 142 539
> 18 143 507
> 19 119 508
> 20 157 532
> 21 163 552
> 22 156 513
> 23 148 530
> 24 154 528
> 25 158 536
> 26 175 582
> 27 176 581
> 28 169 590
> ---------------------
> 4437 15553
> missing 75 274
>
> ---------------------
> 4512 15827
> The three big days were the 12th, 26th and 27th. You figure it out!
>
> (Nienhuys article, entitled "Triply garbled tripe" is being prepared
> for publication. He was kind enough to send me a pre-publication copy of
the
> paper.)
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> See related entries on communal reinforcement, confirmation bias,
> control study, Occam's razor, the post hoc fallacy, selective thinking,
> self-deception, and subjective validation.
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> further reading
>
> reader comments
>
> a.. Moonstruck! Does The Full Moon Influence Behavior? by Eric
> Chudler
> b.. lunar cycles
> c.. James Rotton's review of Arnold Lieber's How the Moon Affects
> You
> d.. full moon fun Urban Legends
> e.. LunarColony.com
> f.. Menstrual Cycles: What Really Happens in those 28 Days?! from
> the Feminist Women's Health Center
> g.. What's the link between the moon and menstruation? Cecil
Adams,
> The Straight Dope
> Abell, George. "The Alleged Lunar Effect" in Science Confronts the
> Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier. (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books,
> 1986). Abel provides a very critical review of psychiatrist Arnold L.
> Lieber's The Lunar Effect: Biological Tides and Human Emotions.
>
> Abell, George O. "The moon and the birthrate," Skeptical Inquirer,
> Summer 1979, vol. 3, no. 4.
>
> Hines, Terence. Pseudoscience and the Paranormal (Buffalo, NY:
> Prometheus Books, 1990).
>
> Byrnes, Gail and I.W. Kelly. "Crisis Calls and Lunar Cycles: A
> Twenty-Year Review," Psychological Reports, 1992, 71, 779-785.
>
> Gutiérrez-García, J. M. and F. Tusell. "Suicides and the Lunar
> Cycle," Psychological Reports, 1997, 80, 243-250.
>
> Jamison, Kay R. Night Falls Fast: Understanding Suicide (Knopf,
1999).
>
> Kelly, I. W., W. H. Laverty, and D. H. Saklofske. "Geophysical
> variables and behavior: LXIV. An empirical investigation of the
relationship
> between worldwide automobile traffic disasters and lunar cycles: No
> Relationship," Psychological Reports, 1990, 67, 987-994.
>
> Kelly, I.W., James Rotton, and Roger Culver. "The Moon was Full and
> Nothing Happened: A Review of Studies on the Moon and Human Behavior and
> Human Belief," in J. Nickell, B. Karr and T. Genoni, eds., The Outer Edge
> (Amherst, N.Y.: CSICOP, 1996). This is an updated version of an article
> which originally appeared in the Skeptical Inquirer Winter 1985-86 (vol.
10,
> no. 2) and was reprinted in The Hundredth Monkey and Other Paradigms of
the
> Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books,
> 1991), pp. 222-234.
>
> Martin, S.J., I.W. Kelly and D.H. Saklofske. "Suicide and Lunar
> Cycles: A Critical Review over 28 Years," Psychological Reports, 1992, 71,
> 787-795.
>
> ©copyright 2000
> Robert Todd Carroll
> Raymond Moody
> Last updated 04/26/01
>
> morphic resonance
>
>
> SkepDic.com
>
>
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