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A fairly asute astronomer emailed me this recently. "Maybe the most
important point made is the statement "Some people even buy and sell stocks
according to phases of the moon, "a method probably as sucessful" as many
others". Bottom line if "whatever you are doing" works, don't fix it and
don't try to convince others it works, to each their own?
don ewers
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Skeptic's Dictionary: full moon and lunar effects
Robert Todd Carroll
SkepDic.com
RE: full moon and lunar effects
The full moon has been linked to crime, suicide, mental illness,
disasters, accidents, birthrates, fertility, and werewolves, among other
things. Some people even buy and sell stocks according to phases of the
moon, a method probably as successful as many others. Numerous studies have
tried to find lunar effects. So far, the studies have failed to establish
anything of interest, except that the idea of the full moon definitely sends
some lunatics (after luna, the Latin word for moon) over the edge. (Lunar
effects that have been found have little or nothing to do with human
behavior, e.g., the discovery of a slight effect of the moon on global
temperature,* which in turn might have an effect on the growth of plants.*)
Ivan Kelly, James Rotton and Roger Culver examined over 100 studies on
lunar effects and concluded that the studies have failed to show a reliable
and significant correlation (i.e., one not likely due to chance) between the
full moon, or any other phase of the moon, and each of the following:
-the homicide rate
-traffic accidents
-crisis calls to police or fire stations
-domestic violence
-births of babies
-suicide
-major disasters
-casino payout rates
-assassinations
-kidnappings
-aggression by professional hockey players
-violence in prisons
-psychiatric admissions
-agitated behavior by nursing home residents
-assaults
-gunshot wounds
-stabbings
-emergency room admissions
-behavioral outbursts of psychologically challenged rural adults
-lycanthropy
-vampirism
-alcoholism
-sleep walking
-epilepsy
If so many studies have failed to prove a significant correlation
between the full moon and anything, why do so many people believe in these
lunar myths? Kelly, Rotton, and Culver suspect four factors: media effects,
folklore and tradition, misconceptions, and cognitive biases. I would add a
fifth factor: communal reinforcement.
the media perpetuates lunar myths
Kelly, et al., note that lunar myths are frequently presented in films
and works of fiction. "With the constant media repetition of an association
between the full moon and human behavior it is not surprising that such
beliefs are widespread in the general public," they say. Reporters also
"favor those who claim that the full moon influences behavior." It wouldn't
be much of a story if the moon was full and nothing happened, they note.
Anecdotal evidence for lunar effects is not hard to find and reporters lap
it up, even though such evidence is unreliable for establishing significant
correlations. Relying on personal experience ignores the possibility of
self-deception and confirmation bias. Such evidence may be unreliable, but
it is nonetheless persuasive to the uncritical mind.
Folklore and tradition:
Many lunar myths are rooted in folklore. For example, an ancient
Assyrian/Babylonian fragment stated that "A woman is fertile according to
the moon." Such notions have been turned into widespread misconceptions
about fertility and birthrates. For example, Eugen Jonas, a Slovakian
psychiatrist, was inspired by this bit of folklore to create a method of
birth control and fertility largely rooted in astrological superstitions.
The belief that there are more births during a full moon persists today
among many educated people. Scientific studies, however, have failed to find
any significant correlation between the full moon and number of births (See
"Lunar phase and birth rate: A fifty-year critical review," by R. Martens,
I. Kelly, and D. H. Saklofske, Psychological Reports, 63, 923-934, "Lunar
phase and birthrate: An update," by I. Kelly and R. Martens, Psychological
Reports, 75, 507-511). In 1991, Benski and Gerin reported that they had
analyzed birthdays of 4,256 babies born in a clinic in France and "found
them equally distributed throughout the synodic (phase) lunar cycle" (Kelly,
et al. 1996, 19). In 1994, Italian researchers Periti and Biagiotti reported
on their study of 7,842 spontaneous deliveries over a 5-year period at a
clinic in Florence. They found "no relationship between moon phase and
number of spontaneous deliveries" (Kelly, et al. 1996, 19).
Despite the fact that there is no evidence of a significant
correlation between phases of the moon and fertility, some people not only
maintain that there is, they have a "scientific" explanation for the
non-existent correlation. According to "Angela" of AstraConceptions at
fertilityrhythms.com,
...photic (light) signals sent by the lens and retina of the eyes
are converted into hormone signals by the pineal gland. It is the pineal
gland which signals the onset of puberty in humans and plays a part in the
fertility rhythms of all species.
In animals which reproduce seasonally, it is the changing light
patterns which trigger the fertility cycle. The gradual change in both the
length of day and the changing angle of the sun in the sky (caused by
earth's motion) is interpreted by the pineal gland as a signal to commence
the fertility season.
Of course, humans do not reproduce seasonally. Our fertility cycles
exhibit an obvious monthly rhythm. The light source which has a monthly
periodicity is, of course, the Moon.
It is interesting to note that menstruation is actually a shedding
process. Just as the average menstrual cycle is 28 days in length, the human
body sheds a layer of skin approximately every 28 days.
Yes, that is very interesting to note...if you are interested in
sympathetic magic. (The author also finds it noteworthy that animals which
reproduce seasonally also shed their coats seasonally.) The author continues
...it is not only the changing day length but also the changing
angular position of the sun which triggers this process; the pineal gland
receives photic (light) impressions and converts these into hormonal
messages which signal the onset of these cycles.
With humans the cycles of fertility (and shedding) are triggered by
photic impressions as well. Yet our cycles have a monthly periodicity which
is obviously synchronized with fluctuations of the lunar light.
Obviously. However, the light of the moon is a very minor source of
light in most women's lives, and is no more likely than the moon's
gravitational force to have a significant effect upon a woman's ovulation.
Furthermore, the average menstrual cycle is 28 days but varies from woman to
woman and month to month, while the length of the lunar month is a
consistent 29.53 days.* Some of us have noticed that these cycles are not
identical. Furthermore, it would seem odd that natural selection would favor
a method of reproduction for a species like ours that depended on the
weather. Clouds are bound to be irregularly and frequently blocking
moonlight, which would seem to hinder rather than enhance our species'
chance for survival.
Some mythmakers believe that long ago women all bled in sync with the
moon, but civilization and indoor electric lighting (or even the discovery
of fire by primitive humans) has messed up their rhythmic cycle. This theory
may seem plausible until one remembers that there are quite a few other
mammals on the planet who have not been affected by firelight or
civilization's indoor lighting and, with the exception of the opossum, their
cycles aren't in harmony with the moon. In the lemur, on the other hand,
"estrus and sex tend to occur around the time of the full moon."* In short,
given the large number of types of mammals on our planet, one would expect
that by chance some species' estrus and menstrual cycles would harmonize
with lunar cycles. It is doubtful that there is anything of metaphysical
significance in this.
What we do know is that there has been very little research on
hormonal or neurochemical changes during lunar phases. James Rotton's search
of the literature "failed to uncover any studies linking lunar cycles to
substances that have been implicated as possible correlates of stress and
aggression (e.g., serotonin, melatonin, epinephrine, norepinephrine,
testosterone, cortisol, vasopressin [directly relevant to fluid content],
growth hormone, pH, 17-OHCS, adrenocrotropic hormone)."* One would think
that this area would be well-studied, since hormones and neurochemicals are
known to affect menstruation and behavior.
Misconceptions:
Kelly et al. note that misconceptions about such things as the moon's
effect on tides have contributed to lunar mythology. Many people seem to
think that since the moon affects the ocean's tides, it must be so powerful
that it affects the human body as well. It is actually a very weak tidal
force. A mother holding her child "will exert 12 million times as much tidal
force on her child as the moon" (Kelly et al., 1996, 25). Astronomer George
O. Abell claims that the moon's gravitational pull is less than that of a
mosquito (Abell 1979). Despite these physical facts, there is still
widespread belief that the moon can cause earthquakes. It doesn't; nor does
the sun, which exerts much less tidal force on the earth than the moon.*
The fact that the human body is mostly water largely contributes to
the notion that the moon should have a powerful effect upon the human body
and therefore an effect upon behavior. It is claimed by many that the earth
and the human body both are 80% water. This is false. Eighty percent of the
surface of the earth is water. Furthermore, the moon only affects unbounded
bodies of water, while the water in the human body is bounded.
Also, the tidal force of the moon on the earth depends on its distance
from earth, not its phase. Whereas the synodic period is 29.53 days, it
takes 27.5 days for the moon to move in its elliptical orbit from perigee to
perigee (or apogee to apogee). Perigee (when the moon is closest to earth)
"can occur at any phase of the synodic cycle" (Kelly et al. 1990, 989).
Higher tides do occur at new and full moons, but not because the moon's
gravitational pull is stronger at those times. Rather, the tides are higher
then because "the sun, earth, and moon are in a line and the tidal force of
the sun joins that of the moon at those times to produce higher tides"
(Kelly et al. 1990, 989).
Many of the misconceptions about the moon's gravitational effect on
the tides, as well as several other lunar misconceptions, seem to have been
generated by Arnold Lieber in The Lunar Effect (1978), republished in 1996
as How the Moon Affects You. Leiber incorrectly predicted a catastrophic
earthquake would hit California in 1982 due to the coincidental alignment of
the moon and planets.
Cognitive biases and communal reinforcement:
Finally, many believe in lunar myths because they have heard them
repeated many times by members of the mass media, by police officers,
nurses, doctors, social workers, and other people with influence. Once many
people believe something and enjoy a significant amount of communal
reinforcement, they get very selective about the type of data they pay
attention to in the future. If one believes that during a full moon there is
an increase in accidents, one will notice when accidents occur during a full
moon, but be inattentive to the moon when accidents occur at other times. If
something strange happens and there is a full moon at the time, a causal
connection will be assumed. If something strange happens and there is no
full moon, no connection is made, but the event is not seen as
counterevidence to the belief in full moon causality. Memories get
selective, and perhaps even distorted, to favor a full moon hypothesis. A
tendency to do this over time strengthens one's belief in the relationship
between the full moon and a host of unrelated effects.
The moon, madness and suicide:
Probably the most widely believed myth about the full moon is that it
is associated with madness. However, in examining over 100 studies, Kelly,
Rotton and Culver found that "phases of the moon accounted for no more than
3/100 of 1 percent of the variability in activities usually termed lunacy"
(1996, 18). According to James Rotton, "such a small percentage is too close
to zero to be of any theoretical, practical, or statistical interest or
significance."*
Finally, the notion that there is a lunar influence on suicide is also
unsubstantiated. Martin, Kelly and Saklofske reviewed numerous studies done
over nearly three decades and found no significant association between
phases of the moon and suicide deaths, attempted suicides, or suicide
threats. In 1997, Gutiérrez-García and Tusell studied 897 suicide deaths in
Madrid and found "no significant relationship between the synodic cycle and
the suicide rate" (1997, 248). These studies, like others which have failed
to find anything interesting happening during the full moon, have gone
largely, but not completely*, unreported in the press.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
update Feb 1, 2000: According to Allan Hall of the Sunday-Times,
German researchers Hans-Joachim Mittmeyer of the University of Tübingen and
Norbert Filipp from the Health Institute of Reutlingen claim that "a study
of police reports for 50 new and full Moon cycles" shows that the moon is
"responsible for binge drinking."
According to Hall, Mittmeyer and Filipp claim in their paper "Alcohol
Consumption and the Moon's Influence" to have studied police arrest reports
and blood-alcohol tests of 16,495 people and Mittmeyer said "The results
show there is a definite correlation between new and full Moons and the
amount of alcohol consumed."
Hall writes:
More of those with an excess of 2ml of alcohol per 100ml of blood
inside them - drunk, according to German law - were caught by police during
the five-day full Moon cycle.
On average 175 drink[sic]-drivers per day were caught in two German
states two days before a full Moon, 161 were caught during the full Moon
cycle and the figure dropped to about 120 per day at other times.
This very unclear statement has to be interpreted. I took it to mean
that an average of 175 drunk drivers were caught each day on days one and
two of the five-day cycle. Thus, if the average for the whole five-day cycle
was only 161, there were substantially fewer drunk drivers caught on the
night of the full moon. Thus, it appeared to me that the researchers were
not able to correlate the full moon with an increase in arrests, so they
created 'the full moon cycle', a five day period, which gave them the
statistical correlations they were looking for.
Apparently, however, I was wrong in my interpretation of Hall's
meaning and Hall erred in his reading of a report from the German Press
Agency DPA which erred in its reading of the original paper which erred in
its interpretation of the data.
Jan Willem Nienhuys, a mathematician in the Eindhoven (Netherlands)
University of Technology, claims that "Hall's story is a garbled version of
a story by the German Press Agency DPA." According to Nienhuys, Hall
invented the notion of a five-day full Moon cycle; the expression is not
used by Mittmeyer and Filipp in their paper. Furthermore, 668 of the 16,495
arrested and tested were found to be sober, leaving 15,827 with alcohol in
their blood, but only 4,512 with more than 0.2 percent blood alcohol (i.e.,
drunk).
According to Nienhuys, the 161 figure refers to the average number of
drunk drivers arrested on any given date in the lunar month; he believes
this number was arrived at by dividing 4,512 by 28 (rather than 29.53, the
length of a lunar month) and hence should be 153, not 161. About the only
thing Hall got right, says Nienhuys, is that Mittmeyer and Filipp do claim
to have found a significant correlation between the moon and excessive
drinking. He notes that the pair provide graphs but no statistical analysis
of their data. When such an analysis is done, says Nienhuys, one discovers
that the study is "pompous pseudoscience." According to Nienhuys, a standard
statistical test yields p-values which show that there is nothing to
investigate.
Here is the data, according to Nienhuys. Day 0 is the day of the new
moon and day 14 is the full moon.
day drunks drinkers, including drunks
0 145 551
1 160 528
2 162 552
3 122 527
4 162 538
5 157 531
6 156 504
7 158 560
8 140 523
9 152 540
10 150 552
11 146 477
12 173 563
13 150 545
14 150 523
15 149 498
16 145 543
17 142 539
18 143 507
19 119 508
20 157 532
21 163 552
22 156 513
23 148 530
24 154 528
25 158 536
26 175 582
27 176 581
28 169 590
---------------------
4437 15553
missing 75 274
---------------------
4512 15827
The three big days were the 12th, 26th and 27th. You figure it out!
(Nienhuys article, entitled "Triply garbled tripe" is being prepared
for publication. He was kind enough to send me a pre-publication copy of the
paper.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
See related entries on communal reinforcement, confirmation bias,
control study, Occam's razor, the post hoc fallacy, selective thinking,
self-deception, and subjective validation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
further reading
reader comments
a.. Moonstruck! Does The Full Moon Influence Behavior? by Eric
Chudler
b.. lunar cycles
c.. James Rotton's review of Arnold Lieber's How the Moon Affects
You
d.. full moon fun Urban Legends
e.. LunarColony.com
f.. Menstrual Cycles: What Really Happens in those 28 Days?! from
the Feminist Women's Health Center
g.. What's the link between the moon and menstruation? Cecil Adams,
The Straight Dope
Abell, George. "The Alleged Lunar Effect" in Science Confronts the
Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier. (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books,
1986). Abel provides a very critical review of psychiatrist Arnold L.
Lieber's The Lunar Effect: Biological Tides and Human Emotions.
Abell, George O. "The moon and the birthrate," Skeptical Inquirer,
Summer 1979, vol. 3, no. 4.
Hines, Terence. Pseudoscience and the Paranormal (Buffalo, NY:
Prometheus Books, 1990).
Byrnes, Gail and I.W. Kelly. "Crisis Calls and Lunar Cycles: A
Twenty-Year Review," Psychological Reports, 1992, 71, 779-785.
Gutiérrez-García, J. M. and F. Tusell. "Suicides and the Lunar
Cycle," Psychological Reports, 1997, 80, 243-250.
Jamison, Kay R. Night Falls Fast: Understanding Suicide (Knopf, 1999).
Kelly, I. W., W. H. Laverty, and D. H. Saklofske. "Geophysical
variables and behavior: LXIV. An empirical investigation of the relationship
between worldwide automobile traffic disasters and lunar cycles: No
Relationship," Psychological Reports, 1990, 67, 987-994.
Kelly, I.W., James Rotton, and Roger Culver. "The Moon was Full and
Nothing Happened: A Review of Studies on the Moon and Human Behavior and
Human Belief," in J. Nickell, B. Karr and T. Genoni, eds., The Outer Edge
(Amherst, N.Y.: CSICOP, 1996). This is an updated version of an article
which originally appeared in the Skeptical Inquirer Winter 1985-86 (vol. 10,
no. 2) and was reprinted in The Hundredth Monkey and Other Paradigms of the
Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books,
1991), pp. 222-234.
Martin, S.J., I.W. Kelly and D.H. Saklofske. "Suicide and Lunar
Cycles: A Critical Review over 28 Years," Psychological Reports, 1992, 71,
787-795.
©copyright 2000
Robert Todd Carroll
Raymond Moody
Last updated 04/26/01
morphic resonance
SkepDic.com
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