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Norman,
Your study below is really interesting. The only thing that surprised
me is that you seemed to forcast a dropping market for the second
half of the week, though there is this huge Jupiter-Uranus Trine
early next week (June 19)?!?
I was surprised that this most positive astro pattern haven't had
more impact on the market right now.
I would be interested to have your valuable opinion on that.
Best wishes
Carl Vanhaesendonck
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxx> wrote:
>
> Norman
> nwinski@xxxx
>
>
> All times are EDT (GMT -4) or same as NYC.
>
> June 12 – minor pull back day, with some firming into closing
bell. Could
> be very whippy – choppy. Stay on your toes.
>
> A. = 10:29 AM = +4
> B. = 12:37 PM = +1
> C. = 1:00 PM = -8
> D. = 1:34 PM = + 4
> E. = 2:28 PM = - 2
> F. = 2:58 PM = -2
> G. = 3:10 PM = +2
> H. = 3:36 PM = -2
>
>
> June 13 = moderate up and then down for little net change
>
> A. = 9:54 AM + 8 (if big up opening, look for top here)
> B. = 1:42 PM 8N (possible retest high)
>
> June 14 = most negative day of the week, should be a sizeable down
>
> A. = 12:40 AM = -32
> B. = 1:04 PM = FYI Tone Change
> C. = 3:49 PM = -2
> D. = 3:49 PM = -8
>
>
> June 15 = market bounces right back with a moderate up day led by
computers
> and electronics. Late afternoon sell off is likely.
>
> A. = 1:13 PM = -2
> B. = 1:54 PM = -2
> C. = 2:57 PM = +8 (market starts losing upside momentum)
> D. = 3:37 PM = +4 = may retest high at C then some weakness into
close.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx>
> To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, June 12, 2001 10:05 PM
> Subject: [RT] Fw: Skeptic's Dictionary full moon and lunar
effects.htm
>
>
> > A fairly asute astronomer emailed me this recently. "Maybe the
most
> > important point made is the statement "Some people even buy and
sell
> stocks
> > according to phases of the moon, "a method probably as sucessful"
as many
> > others". Bottom line if "whatever you are doing" works, don't
fix it and
> > don't try to convince others it works, to each their own?
> > don ewers
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >
> > Skeptic's Dictionary: full moon and lunar effects
> > Robert Todd Carroll
> >
> > SkepDic.com
> > RE: full moon and lunar effects
> >
> > The full moon has been linked to crime, suicide, mental
illness,
> > disasters, accidents, birthrates, fertility, and werewolves,
among other
> > things. Some people even buy and sell stocks according to phases
of the
> > moon, a method probably as successful as many others. Numerous
studies
> have
> > tried to find lunar effects. So far, the studies have failed to
establish
> > anything of interest, except that the idea of the full moon
definitely
> sends
> > some lunatics (after luna, the Latin word for moon) over the
edge. (Lunar
> > effects that have been found have little or nothing to do with
human
> > behavior, e.g., the discovery of a slight effect of the moon on
global
> > temperature,* which in turn might have an effect on the growth of
> plants.*)
> >
> > Ivan Kelly, James Rotton and Roger Culver examined over 100
studies
> on
> > lunar effects and concluded that the studies have failed to show a
> reliable
> > and significant correlation (i.e., one not likely due to chance)
between
> the
> > full moon, or any other phase of the moon, and each of the
following:
> >
> >
> > -the homicide rate
> > -traffic accidents
> > -crisis calls to police or fire stations
> > -domestic violence
> > -births of babies
> > -suicide
> > -major disasters
> > -casino payout rates
> > -assassinations
> > -kidnappings
> > -aggression by professional hockey players
> > -violence in prisons
> > -psychiatric admissions
> > -agitated behavior by nursing home residents
> > -assaults
> > -gunshot wounds
> > -stabbings
> > -emergency room admissions
> > -behavioral outbursts of psychologically challenged rural
adults
> > -lycanthropy
> > -vampirism
> > -alcoholism
> > -sleep walking
> > -epilepsy
> >
> > If so many studies have failed to prove a significant
correlation
> > between the full moon and anything, why do so many people believe
in these
> > lunar myths? Kelly, Rotton, and Culver suspect four factors: media
> effects,
> > folklore and tradition, misconceptions, and cognitive biases. I
would add
> a
> > fifth factor: communal reinforcement.
> >
> > the media perpetuates lunar myths
> >
> > Kelly, et al., note that lunar myths are frequently
presented in
> films
> > and works of fiction. "With the constant media repetition of an
> association
> > between the full moon and human behavior it is not surprising
that such
> > beliefs are widespread in the general public," they say.
Reporters also
> > "favor those who claim that the full moon influences behavior." It
> wouldn't
> > be much of a story if the moon was full and nothing happened,
they note.
> > Anecdotal evidence for lunar effects is not hard to find and
reporters lap
> > it up, even though such evidence is unreliable for establishing
> significant
> > correlations. Relying on personal experience ignores the
possibility of
> > self-deception and confirmation bias. Such evidence may be
unreliable,
> but
> > it is nonetheless persuasive to the uncritical mind.
> >
> > Folklore and tradition:
> >
> > Many lunar myths are rooted in folklore. For example, an
ancient
> > Assyrian/Babylonian fragment stated that "A woman is fertile
according to
> > the moon." Such notions have been turned into widespread
misconceptions
> > about fertility and birthrates. For example, Eugen Jonas, a
Slovakian
> > psychiatrist, was inspired by this bit of folklore to create a
method of
> > birth control and fertility largely rooted in astrological
superstitions.
> > The belief that there are more births during a full moon persists
today
> > among many educated people. Scientific studies, however, have
failed to
> find
> > any significant correlation between the full moon and number of
births
> (See
> > "Lunar phase and birth rate: A fifty-year critical review," by R.
Martens,
> > I. Kelly, and D. H. Saklofske, Psychological Reports, 63, 923-
934, "Lunar
> > phase and birthrate: An update," by I. Kelly and R. Martens,
Psychological
> > Reports, 75, 507-511). In 1991, Benski and Gerin reported that
they had
> > analyzed birthdays of 4,256 babies born in a clinic in France
and "found
> > them equally distributed throughout the synodic (phase) lunar
cycle"
> (Kelly,
> > et al. 1996, 19). In 1994, Italian researchers Periti and
Biagiotti
> reported
> > on their study of 7,842 spontaneous deliveries over a 5-year
period at a
> > clinic in Florence. They found "no relationship between moon
phase and
> > number of spontaneous deliveries" (Kelly, et al. 1996, 19).
> >
> > Despite the fact that there is no evidence of a significant
> > correlation between phases of the moon and fertility, some people
not only
> > maintain that there is, they have a "scientific" explanation for
the
> > non-existent correlation. According to "Angela" of
AstraConceptions at
> > fertilityrhythms.com,
> >
> > ...photic (light) signals sent by the lens and retina of
the eyes
> > are converted into hormone signals by the pineal gland. It is the
pineal
> > gland which signals the onset of puberty in humans and plays a
part in the
> > fertility rhythms of all species.
> >
> > In animals which reproduce seasonally, it is the changing
light
> > patterns which trigger the fertility cycle. The gradual change in
both the
> > length of day and the changing angle of the sun in the sky
(caused by
> > earth's motion) is interpreted by the pineal gland as a signal to
commence
> > the fertility season.
> >
> > Of course, humans do not reproduce seasonally. Our
fertility
> cycles
> > exhibit an obvious monthly rhythm. The light source which has a
monthly
> > periodicity is, of course, the Moon.
> >
> > It is interesting to note that menstruation is actually a
shedding
> > process. Just as the average menstrual cycle is 28 days in
length, the
> human
> > body sheds a layer of skin approximately every 28 days.
> >
> > Yes, that is very interesting to note...if you are
interested in
> > sympathetic magic. (The author also finds it noteworthy that
animals which
> > reproduce seasonally also shed their coats seasonally.) The author
> continues
> >
> > ...it is not only the changing day length but also the
changing
> > angular position of the sun which triggers this process; the
pineal gland
> > receives photic (light) impressions and converts these into
hormonal
> > messages which signal the onset of these cycles.
> >
> > With humans the cycles of fertility (and shedding) are
triggered
> by
> > photic impressions as well. Yet our cycles have a monthly
periodicity
> which
> > is obviously synchronized with fluctuations of the lunar light.
> >
> > Obviously. However, the light of the moon is a very minor
source of
> > light in most women's lives, and is no more likely than the moon's
> > gravitational force to have a significant effect upon a woman's
ovulation.
> > Furthermore, the average menstrual cycle is 28 days but varies
from woman
> to
> > woman and month to month, while the length of the lunar month is a
> > consistent 29.53 days.* Some of us have noticed that these cycles
are not
> > identical. Furthermore, it would seem odd that natural selection
would
> favor
> > a method of reproduction for a species like ours that depended on
the
> > weather. Clouds are bound to be irregularly and frequently
blocking
> > moonlight, which would seem to hinder rather than enhance our
species'
> > chance for survival.
> >
> > Some mythmakers believe that long ago women all bled in
sync with
> the
> > moon, but civilization and indoor electric lighting (or even the
discovery
> > of fire by primitive humans) has messed up their rhythmic cycle.
This
> theory
> > may seem plausible until one remembers that there are quite a few
other
> > mammals on the planet who have not been affected by firelight or
> > civilization's indoor lighting and, with the exception of the
opossum,
> their
> > cycles aren't in harmony with the moon. In the lemur, on the
other hand,
> > "estrus and sex tend to occur around the time of the full moon."*
In
> short,
> > given the large number of types of mammals on our planet, one
would expect
> > that by chance some species' estrus and menstrual cycles would
harmonize
> > with lunar cycles. It is doubtful that there is anything of
metaphysical
> > significance in this.
> >
> > What we do know is that there has been very little research
on
> > hormonal or neurochemical changes during lunar phases. James
Rotton's
> search
> > of the literature "failed to uncover any studies linking lunar
cycles to
> > substances that have been implicated as possible correlates of
stress and
> > aggression (e.g., serotonin, melatonin, epinephrine,
norepinephrine,
> > testosterone, cortisol, vasopressin [directly relevant to fluid
content],
> > growth hormone, pH, 17-OHCS, adrenocrotropic hormone)."* One
would think
> > that this area would be well-studied, since hormones and
neurochemicals
> are
> > known to affect menstruation and behavior.
> >
> > Misconceptions:
> >
> > Kelly et al. note that misconceptions about such things as
the
> moon's
> > effect on tides have contributed to lunar mythology. Many people
seem to
> > think that since the moon affects the ocean's tides, it must be so
> powerful
> > that it affects the human body as well. It is actually a very
weak tidal
> > force. A mother holding her child "will exert 12 million times as
much
> tidal
> > force on her child as the moon" (Kelly et al., 1996, 25).
Astronomer
> George
> > O. Abell claims that the moon's gravitational pull is less than
that of a
> > mosquito (Abell 1979). Despite these physical facts, there is
still
> > widespread belief that the moon can cause earthquakes. It
doesn't; nor
> does
> > the sun, which exerts much less tidal force on the earth than the
moon.*
> >
> > The fact that the human body is mostly water largely
contributes to
> > the notion that the moon should have a powerful effect upon the
human body
> > and therefore an effect upon behavior. It is claimed by many that
the
> earth
> > and the human body both are 80% water. This is false. Eighty
percent of
> the
> > surface of the earth is water. Furthermore, the moon only affects
> unbounded
> > bodies of water, while the water in the human body is bounded.
> >
> > Also, the tidal force of the moon on the earth depends on
its
> distance
> > from earth, not its phase. Whereas the synodic period is 29.53
days, it
> > takes 27.5 days for the moon to move in its elliptical orbit from
perigee
> to
> > perigee (or apogee to apogee). Perigee (when the moon is closest
to earth)
> > "can occur at any phase of the synodic cycle" (Kelly et al. 1990,
989).
> > Higher tides do occur at new and full moons, but not because the
moon's
> > gravitational pull is stronger at those times. Rather, the tides
are
> higher
> > then because "the sun, earth, and moon are in a line and the
tidal force
> of
> > the sun joins that of the moon at those times to produce higher
tides"
> > (Kelly et al. 1990, 989).
> >
> > Many of the misconceptions about the moon's gravitational
effect on
> > the tides, as well as several other lunar misconceptions, seem to
have
> been
> > generated by Arnold Lieber in The Lunar Effect (1978),
republished in 1996
> > as How the Moon Affects You. Leiber incorrectly predicted a
catastrophic
> > earthquake would hit California in 1982 due to the coincidental
alignment
> of
> > the moon and planets.
> >
> > Cognitive biases and communal reinforcement:
> >
> > Finally, many believe in lunar myths because they have
heard them
> > repeated many times by members of the mass media, by police
officers,
> > nurses, doctors, social workers, and other people with influence.
Once
> many
> > people believe something and enjoy a significant amount of
communal
> > reinforcement, they get very selective about the type of data
they pay
> > attention to in the future. If one believes that during a full
moon there
> is
> > an increase in accidents, one will notice when accidents occur
during a
> full
> > moon, but be inattentive to the moon when accidents occur at
other times.
> If
> > something strange happens and there is a full moon at the time, a
causal
> > connection will be assumed. If something strange happens and
there is no
> > full moon, no connection is made, but the event is not seen as
> > counterevidence to the belief in full moon causality. Memories get
> > selective, and perhaps even distorted, to favor a full moon
hypothesis. A
> > tendency to do this over time strengthens one's belief in the
relationship
> > between the full moon and a host of unrelated effects.
> >
> > The moon, madness and suicide:
> >
> > Probably the most widely believed myth about the full moon
is that
> it
> > is associated with madness. However, in examining over 100
studies, Kelly,
> > Rotton and Culver found that "phases of the moon accounted for no
more
> than
> > 3/100 of 1 percent of the variability in activities usually
termed lunacy"
> > (1996, 18). According to James Rotton, "such a small percentage
is too
> close
> > to zero to be of any theoretical, practical, or statistical
interest or
> > significance."*
> >
> > Finally, the notion that there is a lunar influence on
suicide is
> also
> > unsubstantiated. Martin, Kelly and Saklofske reviewed numerous
studies
> done
> > over nearly three decades and found no significant association
between
> > phases of the moon and suicide deaths, attempted suicides, or
suicide
> > threats. In 1997, Gutiérrez-García and Tusell studied 897 suicide
deaths
> in
> > Madrid and found "no significant relationship between the synodic
cycle
> and
> > the suicide rate" (1997, 248). These studies, like others which
have
> failed
> > to find anything interesting happening during the full moon, have
gone
> > largely, but not completely*, unreported in the press.
> >
> >
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
> >
> > update Feb 1, 2000: According to Allan Hall of the Sunday-
Times,
> > German researchers Hans-Joachim Mittmeyer of the University of
Tübingen
> and
> > Norbert Filipp from the Health Institute of Reutlingen claim
that "a study
> > of police reports for 50 new and full Moon cycles" shows that the
moon is
> > "responsible for binge drinking."
> >
> > According to Hall, Mittmeyer and Filipp claim in their paper
> "Alcohol
> > Consumption and the Moon's Influence" to have studied police
arrest
> reports
> > and blood-alcohol tests of 16,495 people and Mittmeyer said "The
results
> > show there is a definite correlation between new and full Moons
and the
> > amount of alcohol consumed."
> >
> > Hall writes:
> >
> > More of those with an excess of 2ml of alcohol per 100ml
of blood
> > inside them - drunk, according to German law - were caught by
police
> during
> > the five-day full Moon cycle.
> >
> > On average 175 drink[sic]-drivers per day were caught in
two
> German
> > states two days before a full Moon, 161 were caught during the
full Moon
> > cycle and the figure dropped to about 120 per day at other times.
> >
> > This very unclear statement has to be interpreted. I took
it to mean
> > that an average of 175 drunk drivers were caught each day on days
one and
> > two of the five-day cycle. Thus, if the average for the whole
five-day
> cycle
> > was only 161, there were substantially fewer drunk drivers caught
on the
> > night of the full moon. Thus, it appeared to me that the
researchers were
> > not able to correlate the full moon with an increase in arrests,
so they
> > created 'the full moon cycle', a five day period, which gave them
the
> > statistical correlations they were looking for.
> >
> > Apparently, however, I was wrong in my interpretation of
Hall's
> > meaning and Hall erred in his reading of a report from the German
Press
> > Agency DPA which erred in its reading of the original paper which
erred in
> > its interpretation of the data.
> >
> > Jan Willem Nienhuys, a mathematician in the Eindhoven
(Netherlands)
> > University of Technology, claims that "Hall's story is a garbled
version
> of
> > a story by the German Press Agency DPA." According to Nienhuys,
Hall
> > invented the notion of a five-day full Moon cycle; the expression
is not
> > used by Mittmeyer and Filipp in their paper. Furthermore, 668 of
the
> 16,495
> > arrested and tested were found to be sober, leaving 15,827 with
alcohol in
> > their blood, but only 4,512 with more than 0.2 percent blood
alcohol
> (i.e.,
> > drunk).
> >
> > According to Nienhuys, the 161 figure refers to the average
number
> of
> > drunk drivers arrested on any given date in the lunar month; he
believes
> > this number was arrived at by dividing 4,512 by 28 (rather than
29.53, the
> > length of a lunar month) and hence should be 153, not 161. About
the only
> > thing Hall got right, says Nienhuys, is that Mittmeyer and Filipp
do claim
> > to have found a significant correlation between the moon and
excessive
> > drinking. He notes that the pair provide graphs but no statistical
> analysis
> > of their data. When such an analysis is done, says Nienhuys, one
discovers
> > that the study is "pompous pseudoscience." According to Nienhuys,
a
> standard
> > statistical test yields p-values which show that there is nothing
to
> > investigate.
> >
> > Here is the data, according to Nienhuys. Day 0 is the day
of the new
> > moon and day 14 is the full moon.
> >
> > day drunks drinkers, including drunks
> > 0 145 551
> > 1 160 528
> > 2 162 552
> > 3 122 527
> > 4 162 538
> > 5 157 531
> > 6 156 504
> > 7 158 560
> > 8 140 523
> > 9 152 540
> > 10 150 552
> > 11 146 477
> > 12 173 563
> > 13 150 545
> > 14 150 523
> > 15 149 498
> > 16 145 543
> > 17 142 539
> > 18 143 507
> > 19 119 508
> > 20 157 532
> > 21 163 552
> > 22 156 513
> > 23 148 530
> > 24 154 528
> > 25 158 536
> > 26 175 582
> > 27 176 581
> > 28 169 590
> > ---------------------
> > 4437 15553
> > missing 75 274
> >
> > ---------------------
> > 4512 15827
> > The three big days were the 12th, 26th and 27th. You figure
it out!
> >
> > (Nienhuys article, entitled "Triply garbled tripe" is being
prepared
> > for publication. He was kind enough to send me a pre-publication
copy of
> the
> > paper.)
> >
> >
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
> >
> > See related entries on communal reinforcement, confirmation
bias,
> > control study, Occam's razor, the post hoc fallacy, selective
thinking,
> > self-deception, and subjective validation.
> >
> >
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------
--------
> >
> > further reading
> >
> > reader comments
> >
> > a.. Moonstruck! Does The Full Moon Influence Behavior? by
Eric
> > Chudler
> > b.. lunar cycles
> > c.. James Rotton's review of Arnold Lieber's How the Moon
Affects
> > You
> > d.. full moon fun Urban Legends
> > e.. LunarColony.com
> > f.. Menstrual Cycles: What Really Happens in those 28
Days?! from
> > the Feminist Women's Health Center
> > g.. What's the link between the moon and menstruation?
Cecil
> Adams,
> > The Straight Dope
> > Abell, George. "The Alleged Lunar Effect" in Science
Confronts the
> > Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier. (Buffalo, N.Y.:
Prometheus Books,
> > 1986). Abel provides a very critical review of psychiatrist
Arnold L.
> > Lieber's The Lunar Effect: Biological Tides and Human Emotions.
> >
> > Abell, George O. "The moon and the birthrate," Skeptical
Inquirer,
> > Summer 1979, vol. 3, no. 4.
> >
> > Hines, Terence. Pseudoscience and the Paranormal (Buffalo,
NY:
> > Prometheus Books, 1990).
> >
> > Byrnes, Gail and I.W. Kelly. "Crisis Calls and Lunar
Cycles: A
> > Twenty-Year Review," Psychological Reports, 1992, 71, 779-785.
> >
> > Gutiérrez-García, J. M. and F. Tusell. "Suicides and the
Lunar
> > Cycle," Psychological Reports, 1997, 80, 243-250.
> >
> > Jamison, Kay R. Night Falls Fast: Understanding Suicide
(Knopf,
> 1999).
> >
> > Kelly, I. W., W. H. Laverty, and D. H.
Saklofske. "Geophysical
> > variables and behavior: LXIV. An empirical investigation of the
> relationship
> > between worldwide automobile traffic disasters and lunar cycles:
No
> > Relationship," Psychological Reports, 1990, 67, 987-994.
> >
> > Kelly, I.W., James Rotton, and Roger Culver. "The Moon was
Full and
> > Nothing Happened: A Review of Studies on the Moon and Human
Behavior and
> > Human Belief," in J. Nickell, B. Karr and T. Genoni, eds., The
Outer Edge
> > (Amherst, N.Y.: CSICOP, 1996). This is an updated version of an
article
> > which originally appeared in the Skeptical Inquirer Winter 1985-
86 (vol.
> 10,
> > no. 2) and was reprinted in The Hundredth Monkey and Other
Paradigms of
> the
> > Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus
Books,
> > 1991), pp. 222-234.
> >
> > Martin, S.J., I.W. Kelly and D.H. Saklofske. "Suicide and
Lunar
> > Cycles: A Critical Review over 28 Years," Psychological Reports,
1992, 71,
> > 787-795.
> >
> > ©copyright 2000
> > Robert Todd Carroll
> > Raymond Moody
> > Last updated 04/26/01
> >
> > morphic resonance
> >
> >
> > SkepDic.com
> >
> >
> > Search the Skeptic's Dictionary
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
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