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Don,
Not to pick nits, exactly, but I can't believe a true secptic would exclude
the tides from the list of NON-corellated moon effects. <G>
Michael: wl7bdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, June 12, 2001 21:05
Subject: [RT] Fw: Skeptic's Dictionary full moon and lunar effects.htm
> A fairly asute astronomer emailed me this recently. "Maybe the most
> important point made is the statement "Some people even buy and sell
stocks
> according to phases of the moon, "a method probably as sucessful" as many
> others". Bottom line if "whatever you are doing" works, don't fix it and
> don't try to convince others it works, to each their own?
> don ewers
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Skeptic's Dictionary: full moon and lunar effects
> Robert Todd Carroll
>
> SkepDic.com
> RE: full moon and lunar effects
>
> The full moon has been linked to crime, suicide, mental illness,
> disasters, accidents, birthrates, fertility, and werewolves, among other
> things. Some people even buy and sell stocks according to phases of the
> moon, a method probably as successful as many others. Numerous studies
have
> tried to find lunar effects. So far, the studies have failed to establish
> anything of interest, except that the idea of the full moon definitely
sends
> some lunatics (after luna, the Latin word for moon) over the edge. (Lunar
> effects that have been found have little or nothing to do with human
> behavior, e.g., the discovery of a slight effect of the moon on global
> temperature,* which in turn might have an effect on the growth of
plants.*)
>
> Ivan Kelly, James Rotton and Roger Culver examined over 100 studies
on
> lunar effects and concluded that the studies have failed to show a
reliable
> and significant correlation (i.e., one not likely due to chance) between
the
> full moon, or any other phase of the moon, and each of the following:
>
>
> -the homicide rate
> -traffic accidents
> -crisis calls to police or fire stations
> -domestic violence
> -births of babies
> -suicide
> -major disasters
> -casino payout rates
> -assassinations
> -kidnappings
> -aggression by professional hockey players
> -violence in prisons
> -psychiatric admissions
> -agitated behavior by nursing home residents
> -assaults
> -gunshot wounds
> -stabbings
> -emergency room admissions
> -behavioral outbursts of psychologically challenged rural adults
> -lycanthropy
> -vampirism
> -alcoholism
> -sleep walking
> -epilepsy
>
> If so many studies have failed to prove a significant correlation
> between the full moon and anything, why do so many people believe in these
> lunar myths? Kelly, Rotton, and Culver suspect four factors: media
effects,
> folklore and tradition, misconceptions, and cognitive biases. I would add
a
> fifth factor: communal reinforcement.
>
> the media perpetuates lunar myths
>
> Kelly, et al., note that lunar myths are frequently presented in
films
> and works of fiction. "With the constant media repetition of an
association
> between the full moon and human behavior it is not surprising that such
> beliefs are widespread in the general public," they say. Reporters also
> "favor those who claim that the full moon influences behavior." It
wouldn't
> be much of a story if the moon was full and nothing happened, they note.
> Anecdotal evidence for lunar effects is not hard to find and reporters lap
> it up, even though such evidence is unreliable for establishing
significant
> correlations. Relying on personal experience ignores the possibility of
> self-deception and confirmation bias. Such evidence may be unreliable,
but
> it is nonetheless persuasive to the uncritical mind.
>
> Folklore and tradition:
>
> Many lunar myths are rooted in folklore. For example, an ancient
> Assyrian/Babylonian fragment stated that "A woman is fertile according to
> the moon." Such notions have been turned into widespread misconceptions
> about fertility and birthrates. For example, Eugen Jonas, a Slovakian
> psychiatrist, was inspired by this bit of folklore to create a method of
> birth control and fertility largely rooted in astrological superstitions.
> The belief that there are more births during a full moon persists today
> among many educated people. Scientific studies, however, have failed to
find
> any significant correlation between the full moon and number of births
(See
> "Lunar phase and birth rate: A fifty-year critical review," by R. Martens,
> I. Kelly, and D. H. Saklofske, Psychological Reports, 63, 923-934, "Lunar
> phase and birthrate: An update," by I. Kelly and R. Martens, Psychological
> Reports, 75, 507-511). In 1991, Benski and Gerin reported that they had
> analyzed birthdays of 4,256 babies born in a clinic in France and "found
> them equally distributed throughout the synodic (phase) lunar cycle"
(Kelly,
> et al. 1996, 19). In 1994, Italian researchers Periti and Biagiotti
reported
> on their study of 7,842 spontaneous deliveries over a 5-year period at a
> clinic in Florence. They found "no relationship between moon phase and
> number of spontaneous deliveries" (Kelly, et al. 1996, 19).
>
> Despite the fact that there is no evidence of a significant
> correlation between phases of the moon and fertility, some people not only
> maintain that there is, they have a "scientific" explanation for the
> non-existent correlation. According to "Angela" of AstraConceptions at
> fertilityrhythms.com,
>
> ...photic (light) signals sent by the lens and retina of the eyes
> are converted into hormone signals by the pineal gland. It is the pineal
> gland which signals the onset of puberty in humans and plays a part in the
> fertility rhythms of all species.
>
> In animals which reproduce seasonally, it is the changing light
> patterns which trigger the fertility cycle. The gradual change in both the
> length of day and the changing angle of the sun in the sky (caused by
> earth's motion) is interpreted by the pineal gland as a signal to commence
> the fertility season.
>
> Of course, humans do not reproduce seasonally. Our fertility
cycles
> exhibit an obvious monthly rhythm. The light source which has a monthly
> periodicity is, of course, the Moon.
>
> It is interesting to note that menstruation is actually a shedding
> process. Just as the average menstrual cycle is 28 days in length, the
human
> body sheds a layer of skin approximately every 28 days.
>
> Yes, that is very interesting to note...if you are interested in
> sympathetic magic. (The author also finds it noteworthy that animals which
> reproduce seasonally also shed their coats seasonally.) The author
continues
>
> ...it is not only the changing day length but also the changing
> angular position of the sun which triggers this process; the pineal gland
> receives photic (light) impressions and converts these into hormonal
> messages which signal the onset of these cycles.
>
> With humans the cycles of fertility (and shedding) are triggered
by
> photic impressions as well. Yet our cycles have a monthly periodicity
which
> is obviously synchronized with fluctuations of the lunar light.
>
> Obviously. However, the light of the moon is a very minor source of
> light in most women's lives, and is no more likely than the moon's
> gravitational force to have a significant effect upon a woman's ovulation.
> Furthermore, the average menstrual cycle is 28 days but varies from woman
to
> woman and month to month, while the length of the lunar month is a
> consistent 29.53 days.* Some of us have noticed that these cycles are not
> identical. Furthermore, it would seem odd that natural selection would
favor
> a method of reproduction for a species like ours that depended on the
> weather. Clouds are bound to be irregularly and frequently blocking
> moonlight, which would seem to hinder rather than enhance our species'
> chance for survival.
>
> Some mythmakers believe that long ago women all bled in sync with
the
> moon, but civilization and indoor electric lighting (or even the discovery
> of fire by primitive humans) has messed up their rhythmic cycle. This
theory
> may seem plausible until one remembers that there are quite a few other
> mammals on the planet who have not been affected by firelight or
> civilization's indoor lighting and, with the exception of the opossum,
their
> cycles aren't in harmony with the moon. In the lemur, on the other hand,
> "estrus and sex tend to occur around the time of the full moon."* In
short,
> given the large number of types of mammals on our planet, one would expect
> that by chance some species' estrus and menstrual cycles would harmonize
> with lunar cycles. It is doubtful that there is anything of metaphysical
> significance in this.
>
> What we do know is that there has been very little research on
> hormonal or neurochemical changes during lunar phases. James Rotton's
search
> of the literature "failed to uncover any studies linking lunar cycles to
> substances that have been implicated as possible correlates of stress and
> aggression (e.g., serotonin, melatonin, epinephrine, norepinephrine,
> testosterone, cortisol, vasopressin [directly relevant to fluid content],
> growth hormone, pH, 17-OHCS, adrenocrotropic hormone)."* One would think
> that this area would be well-studied, since hormones and neurochemicals
are
> known to affect menstruation and behavior.
>
> Misconceptions:
>
> Kelly et al. note that misconceptions about such things as the
moon's
> effect on tides have contributed to lunar mythology. Many people seem to
> think that since the moon affects the ocean's tides, it must be so
powerful
> that it affects the human body as well. It is actually a very weak tidal
> force. A mother holding her child "will exert 12 million times as much
tidal
> force on her child as the moon" (Kelly et al., 1996, 25). Astronomer
George
> O. Abell claims that the moon's gravitational pull is less than that of a
> mosquito (Abell 1979). Despite these physical facts, there is still
> widespread belief that the moon can cause earthquakes. It doesn't; nor
does
> the sun, which exerts much less tidal force on the earth than the moon.*
>
> The fact that the human body is mostly water largely contributes to
> the notion that the moon should have a powerful effect upon the human body
> and therefore an effect upon behavior. It is claimed by many that the
earth
> and the human body both are 80% water. This is false. Eighty percent of
the
> surface of the earth is water. Furthermore, the moon only affects
unbounded
> bodies of water, while the water in the human body is bounded.
>
> Also, the tidal force of the moon on the earth depends on its
distance
> from earth, not its phase. Whereas the synodic period is 29.53 days, it
> takes 27.5 days for the moon to move in its elliptical orbit from perigee
to
> perigee (or apogee to apogee). Perigee (when the moon is closest to earth)
> "can occur at any phase of the synodic cycle" (Kelly et al. 1990, 989).
> Higher tides do occur at new and full moons, but not because the moon's
> gravitational pull is stronger at those times. Rather, the tides are
higher
> then because "the sun, earth, and moon are in a line and the tidal force
of
> the sun joins that of the moon at those times to produce higher tides"
> (Kelly et al. 1990, 989).
>
> Many of the misconceptions about the moon's gravitational effect on
> the tides, as well as several other lunar misconceptions, seem to have
been
> generated by Arnold Lieber in The Lunar Effect (1978), republished in 1996
> as How the Moon Affects You. Leiber incorrectly predicted a catastrophic
> earthquake would hit California in 1982 due to the coincidental alignment
of
> the moon and planets.
>
> Cognitive biases and communal reinforcement:
>
> Finally, many believe in lunar myths because they have heard them
> repeated many times by members of the mass media, by police officers,
> nurses, doctors, social workers, and other people with influence. Once
many
> people believe something and enjoy a significant amount of communal
> reinforcement, they get very selective about the type of data they pay
> attention to in the future. If one believes that during a full moon there
is
> an increase in accidents, one will notice when accidents occur during a
full
> moon, but be inattentive to the moon when accidents occur at other times.
If
> something strange happens and there is a full moon at the time, a causal
> connection will be assumed. If something strange happens and there is no
> full moon, no connection is made, but the event is not seen as
> counterevidence to the belief in full moon causality. Memories get
> selective, and perhaps even distorted, to favor a full moon hypothesis. A
> tendency to do this over time strengthens one's belief in the relationship
> between the full moon and a host of unrelated effects.
>
> The moon, madness and suicide:
>
> Probably the most widely believed myth about the full moon is that
it
> is associated with madness. However, in examining over 100 studies, Kelly,
> Rotton and Culver found that "phases of the moon accounted for no more
than
> 3/100 of 1 percent of the variability in activities usually termed lunacy"
> (1996, 18). According to James Rotton, "such a small percentage is too
close
> to zero to be of any theoretical, practical, or statistical interest or
> significance."*
>
> Finally, the notion that there is a lunar influence on suicide is
also
> unsubstantiated. Martin, Kelly and Saklofske reviewed numerous studies
done
> over nearly three decades and found no significant association between
> phases of the moon and suicide deaths, attempted suicides, or suicide
> threats. In 1997, Gutiérrez-García and Tusell studied 897 suicide deaths
in
> Madrid and found "no significant relationship between the synodic cycle
and
> the suicide rate" (1997, 248). These studies, like others which have
failed
> to find anything interesting happening during the full moon, have gone
> largely, but not completely*, unreported in the press.
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> update Feb 1, 2000: According to Allan Hall of the Sunday-Times,
> German researchers Hans-Joachim Mittmeyer of the University of Tübingen
and
> Norbert Filipp from the Health Institute of Reutlingen claim that "a study
> of police reports for 50 new and full Moon cycles" shows that the moon is
> "responsible for binge drinking."
>
> According to Hall, Mittmeyer and Filipp claim in their paper
"Alcohol
> Consumption and the Moon's Influence" to have studied police arrest
reports
> and blood-alcohol tests of 16,495 people and Mittmeyer said "The results
> show there is a definite correlation between new and full Moons and the
> amount of alcohol consumed."
>
> Hall writes:
>
> More of those with an excess of 2ml of alcohol per 100ml of blood
> inside them - drunk, according to German law - were caught by police
during
> the five-day full Moon cycle.
>
> On average 175 drink[sic]-drivers per day were caught in two
German
> states two days before a full Moon, 161 were caught during the full Moon
> cycle and the figure dropped to about 120 per day at other times.
>
> This very unclear statement has to be interpreted. I took it to mean
> that an average of 175 drunk drivers were caught each day on days one and
> two of the five-day cycle. Thus, if the average for the whole five-day
cycle
> was only 161, there were substantially fewer drunk drivers caught on the
> night of the full moon. Thus, it appeared to me that the researchers were
> not able to correlate the full moon with an increase in arrests, so they
> created 'the full moon cycle', a five day period, which gave them the
> statistical correlations they were looking for.
>
> Apparently, however, I was wrong in my interpretation of Hall's
> meaning and Hall erred in his reading of a report from the German Press
> Agency DPA which erred in its reading of the original paper which erred in
> its interpretation of the data.
>
> Jan Willem Nienhuys, a mathematician in the Eindhoven (Netherlands)
> University of Technology, claims that "Hall's story is a garbled version
of
> a story by the German Press Agency DPA." According to Nienhuys, Hall
> invented the notion of a five-day full Moon cycle; the expression is not
> used by Mittmeyer and Filipp in their paper. Furthermore, 668 of the
16,495
> arrested and tested were found to be sober, leaving 15,827 with alcohol in
> their blood, but only 4,512 with more than 0.2 percent blood alcohol
(i.e.,
> drunk).
>
> According to Nienhuys, the 161 figure refers to the average number
of
> drunk drivers arrested on any given date in the lunar month; he believes
> this number was arrived at by dividing 4,512 by 28 (rather than 29.53, the
> length of a lunar month) and hence should be 153, not 161. About the only
> thing Hall got right, says Nienhuys, is that Mittmeyer and Filipp do claim
> to have found a significant correlation between the moon and excessive
> drinking. He notes that the pair provide graphs but no statistical
analysis
> of their data. When such an analysis is done, says Nienhuys, one discovers
> that the study is "pompous pseudoscience." According to Nienhuys, a
standard
> statistical test yields p-values which show that there is nothing to
> investigate.
>
> Here is the data, according to Nienhuys. Day 0 is the day of the new
> moon and day 14 is the full moon.
>
> day drunks drinkers, including drunks
> 0 145 551
> 1 160 528
> 2 162 552
> 3 122 527
> 4 162 538
> 5 157 531
> 6 156 504
> 7 158 560
> 8 140 523
> 9 152 540
> 10 150 552
> 11 146 477
> 12 173 563
> 13 150 545
> 14 150 523
> 15 149 498
> 16 145 543
> 17 142 539
> 18 143 507
> 19 119 508
> 20 157 532
> 21 163 552
> 22 156 513
> 23 148 530
> 24 154 528
> 25 158 536
> 26 175 582
> 27 176 581
> 28 169 590
> ---------------------
> 4437 15553
> missing 75 274
>
> ---------------------
> 4512 15827
> The three big days were the 12th, 26th and 27th. You figure it out!
>
> (Nienhuys article, entitled "Triply garbled tripe" is being prepared
> for publication. He was kind enough to send me a pre-publication copy of
the
> paper.)
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> See related entries on communal reinforcement, confirmation bias,
> control study, Occam's razor, the post hoc fallacy, selective thinking,
> self-deception, and subjective validation.
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> further reading
>
> reader comments
>
> a.. Moonstruck! Does The Full Moon Influence Behavior? by Eric
> Chudler
> b.. lunar cycles
> c.. James Rotton's review of Arnold Lieber's How the Moon Affects
> You
> d.. full moon fun Urban Legends
> e.. LunarColony.com
> f.. Menstrual Cycles: What Really Happens in those 28 Days?! from
> the Feminist Women's Health Center
> g.. What's the link between the moon and menstruation? Cecil
Adams,
> The Straight Dope
> Abell, George. "The Alleged Lunar Effect" in Science Confronts the
> Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier. (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books,
> 1986). Abel provides a very critical review of psychiatrist Arnold L.
> Lieber's The Lunar Effect: Biological Tides and Human Emotions.
>
> Abell, George O. "The moon and the birthrate," Skeptical Inquirer,
> Summer 1979, vol. 3, no. 4.
>
> Hines, Terence. Pseudoscience and the Paranormal (Buffalo, NY:
> Prometheus Books, 1990).
>
> Byrnes, Gail and I.W. Kelly. "Crisis Calls and Lunar Cycles: A
> Twenty-Year Review," Psychological Reports, 1992, 71, 779-785.
>
> Gutiérrez-García, J. M. and F. Tusell. "Suicides and the Lunar
> Cycle," Psychological Reports, 1997, 80, 243-250.
>
> Jamison, Kay R. Night Falls Fast: Understanding Suicide (Knopf,
1999).
>
> Kelly, I. W., W. H. Laverty, and D. H. Saklofske. "Geophysical
> variables and behavior: LXIV. An empirical investigation of the
relationship
> between worldwide automobile traffic disasters and lunar cycles: No
> Relationship," Psychological Reports, 1990, 67, 987-994.
>
> Kelly, I.W., James Rotton, and Roger Culver. "The Moon was Full and
> Nothing Happened: A Review of Studies on the Moon and Human Behavior and
> Human Belief," in J. Nickell, B. Karr and T. Genoni, eds., The Outer Edge
> (Amherst, N.Y.: CSICOP, 1996). This is an updated version of an article
> which originally appeared in the Skeptical Inquirer Winter 1985-86 (vol.
10,
> no. 2) and was reprinted in The Hundredth Monkey and Other Paradigms of
the
> Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books,
> 1991), pp. 222-234.
>
> Martin, S.J., I.W. Kelly and D.H. Saklofske. "Suicide and Lunar
> Cycles: A Critical Review over 28 Years," Psychological Reports, 1992, 71,
> 787-795.
>
> ©copyright 2000
> Robert Todd Carroll
> Raymond Moody
> Last updated 04/26/01
>
> morphic resonance
>
>
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