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Since I've been accused of being a bitter loser who doesn't know how to
trade <g>, I thought I'd post a follow-up. This is the last trade I will
be posting and we'll see it through until I exit. Judge for yourself how
credible it is, along with the credibility of any vague claims made by
others. On Monday, I wrote:
> Right now, I'm long again and not loving it very much. I'm barely above
> water and have been in the trade too long. This could well be one of
> those bad trades and I freely admit it. Unlike certain list members, I
> make mistakes all the time. I've got a stop loss order in today at
> 1225.75 and, if that isn't taken out, I'll crunch the numbers for
> tomorrow and see where I stand.
The mini was in the mid 1250's when I wrote that. I'm still long
Wednesday night and feeling better about the trade with the mini closing
at 1288.50. My disaster stop is still 1225.75 but that's outside the
overnight limits so I didn't bother placing the order. My profit target
is 1316.75 and I've placed that order to work overnight and for
tomorrow's day session. For Thursday, if the target hasn't been hit, and
we get a 30-minute bar in the regular session closing at or below
1278.00, I'll exit at the market. If, after that exit below 1278.00, we
get a 30-min close at or above 1287.75, I'll buy again at the market
with a new stop and target. If none of that happens, I'll still be
holding the position Thursday night and working with new numbers on
Friday.
I don't claim to have the slightest clue about what will happen
tomorrow. Anyone who claims to know with any certainty is full of s...,
errrr, himself. I just take it one day at a time and do what the 'puter
tells me. Sometimes I win and sometimes I lose. On balance, I win more
than I lose. Like the Research Unit formerly known as Mark, my goal is
to become the DH Unit formerly known as Dennis, with all the emotion and
guesswork stripped out of my trading. I don't have any interest in being
"right" and I certainly have no interest in bragging about how "right" I
was. All I care about is watching the account grow. I'm wrong lots of
times and I try really hard not to let it bother me. It's just a cost of
doing business. This is a statistics game and the best we can do is
stack the probabilities in our favor and trade small enough that we can
survive the inevitable drawdowns. One thing for sure, I couldn't care
less what the planets, tea leaves, or animal entrails say. Any method I
use must PROVE its worth through rigorous statistical testing. No stats,
no trades. Simple.
Don't bother asking how I calculate the numbers. All I will say is it's
100% mechanical, with price as the only input, and it's not for sale. Do
your own research. There are lots of ways to make money using only the
data you can get from your quote service.
--
Dennis
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