Re: [RT] Follow-up on the long mini spoo trade

[Don Thompson <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Dennis,
Here's my stat take on the S&P for Friday:  Looks good for  higher high, but
there are a few outside reversal day's creeping in, If there is a gap up at
the open
look for a higher close.

Don

For Friday there is about a 43% chance of a gap up open, with the good news
of a 83% chance of a higher close.  The up closers have no chance of a lower
low and a 100% chance of a higher high, while the single down close hit has
both a higher high and a lower low, or an outside day lower close, ( an 17%
chance if a gap up open occurs.  The gap up open over all has 16% chance of
a lower low, and 100% chance of a higher high.

The down gap open is more likely and isn't as bullish.  There is a 62%
chance of a higher close, with the up closers having a 20% chance of a lower
low and a 80% chance of a higher high,  The down closers have 100% chance of
a lower low and a 33% chance of a higher high. The down gap open set has
about a 25% chance of an outside day.  It is split between an up and a down
close.  Overall the down gap open has a 50% odds of a lower low and a 62%
chance of a higher high.

The range is expected to increase above today meager 14+ point range..

the two columns give an average range for an up close and a down close day.


      Up Close    Profile        Down Close Profile
      Open  1294.87 Max Hi 1312.49  Open 1287.86 Max Hi 1303.65
      High 1302.59 Max Lo 1284.64  High 1295.92 Max Lo 1252.13
      Low  1287.79 Spread 14.80  Low  1268.66 Spread 27.26
      Close 1297.92 StdDev 5.72  Close 1272.06 StdDev 12.04

      All Average Profile
      Open 1292.87 Max Hi 1312.49
      High 1300.68 Max Lo 1252.13
      Low  1282.32 Spread 18.36
      Close 1290.53 StdDev 9.09



Subject: Re: [RT] Follow-up on the long mini spoo trade


> Thursday close 1291.50
> Still holding long
>
> For Friday....
> Target 1316.75
> Exit at the market on any 30-min RTH close <= 1304.50
>
> Looks like I will get flat Friday morning unless it rallies.
>
> --
>   Dennis
>
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