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I don't anticipate the market. I don't try to buy bottoms or sell tops. Hurst
is based upon replication of movement in time. If there is to be replication,
then E is early. Hurst is not predictive unless you start using the offset
moving average extensions as noted in his book. I have found them, like much of
Gann and Eliot, to be dependent upon individual interpretation. If price stops
at a Gann line, it stopped it. If it doesn't then the next line should stop
it. In Eliot everyone is guessing as to which wave they are in. There are
those among us who have an uncanny sense of these and other systems and can make
them work with a high degree of reliability. There are some that say they use
these systems, but actually use their natural trading skills to be profitable.
Every system has its proponents and its detractors. In the end it is the party
that uses the system that determines whether it is successful or not. I am
neither a proponent nor a detractor of these systems. I have seen really weird
systems work under the most difficult circumstances and some of the old standbys
fail under the simplest of market conditions. It is up to the individual to
find the system that fits his/her trading style and then become familiar enough
with it to have it operate consistently for him/her. the consistency should be
profits, not losses. Ira
Stan Book wrote:
> You are right, of course. In terms of time my E may be misplaced by a couple
> of weeks. In terms of price, it all depends on the behavior of the wide
> band.
>
> Worst case: the wide channel continues to trend down for two more 3 month
> cycles leading into the final low of the year. This would allow little if
> any additional upside price potential for E.
>
> Moderate case: the wide channel trends up somewhat over the next three
> months (a higher low) then down into an October low. This would allow
> somewhat higher prices at E and probably move E well into May.
>
> Best case: the wide channel turns up sharply leading to much higher prices
> after a minor pullback. This would likely make April the low for the year.
>
> While it is prudent to expect the present down trend in the wide band to
> continue until we can see evidence of a turn, I foolishly anticipate that
> the April low will hold over the next three months.
>
> Ira, I would be interested in learning if you anticipate a turn up in the
> wide channel at this time.
>
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