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excellent comments! i do all the usual stuff like ewave, gann,
sentiment, volume, blah, blah, but i have come more and more to rely
on two very simple chart-based systems which great trader/benefactors
taught me and which i thought for a long time were tooooo simple and
dumb to be of value. lol
also relevant to your point is a study done by teresa lo based on
random entries on either the close or the open depending on whether
you were selling short or buying long. what she found was that
entries were virtually unimportant. exits were what counted for
losses or profits. i think *that*is fascinating, and i know i
sometimes make really stupid entries and come out well and vice
versa. ;)
finally my personal experience is that a lot of market commentary by
amateurs and pros alike talks in terms of analytical methods which
they simply don't use, but which is a way to talk about whether they
are short or long without giving away their "secret methods". some do
this consciously, but some are apparently unaware they are really
doing this.
td
--- In realtraders@xxxx, Ira Tunik <irat@xxxx> wrote:
> I don't anticipate the market. I don't try to buy bottoms or sell
tops. Hurst
> is based upon replication of movement in time. If there is to be
replication,
> then E is early. Hurst is not predictive unless you start using
the offset
> moving average extensions as noted in his book. I have found them,
like much of
> Gann and Eliot, to be dependent upon individual interpretation. If
price stops
> at a Gann line, it stopped it. If it doesn't then the next line
should stop
> it. In Eliot everyone is guessing as to which wave they are in.
There are
> those among us who have an uncanny sense of these and other systems
and can make
> them work with a high degree of reliability. There are some that
say they use
> these systems, but actually use their natural trading skills to be
profitable.
> Every system has its proponents and its detractors. In the end it
is the party
> that uses the system that determines whether it is successful or
not. I am
> neither a proponent nor a detractor of these systems. I have seen
really weird
> systems work under the most difficult circumstances and some of the
old standbys
> fail under the simplest of market conditions. It is up to the
individual to
> find the system that fits his/her trading style and then become
familiar enough
> with it to have it operate consistently for him/her. the
consistency should be
> profits, not losses. Ira
>
> Stan Book wrote:
>
> > You are right, of course. In terms of time my E may be misplaced
by a couple
> > of weeks. In terms of price, it all depends on the behavior of
the wide
> > band.
> >
> > Worst case: the wide channel continues to trend down for two more
3 month
> > cycles leading into the final low of the year. This would allow
little if
> > any additional upside price potential for E.
> >
> > Moderate case: the wide channel trends up somewhat over the next
three
> > months (a higher low) then down into an October low. This would
allow
> > somewhat higher prices at E and probably move E well into May.
> >
> > Best case: the wide channel turns up sharply leading to much
higher prices
> > after a minor pullback. This would likely make April the low for
the year.
> >
> > While it is prudent to expect the present down trend in the wide
band to
> > continue until we can see evidence of a turn, I foolishly
anticipate that
> > the April low will hold over the next three months.
> >
> > Ira, I would be interested in learning if you anticipate a turn
up in the
> > wide channel at this time.
> >
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