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You are right, of course. In terms of time my E may be misplaced by a couple
of weeks. In terms of price, it all depends on the behavior of the wide
band.
Worst case: the wide channel continues to trend down for two more 3 month
cycles leading into the final low of the year. This would allow little if
any additional upside price potential for E.
Moderate case: the wide channel trends up somewhat over the next three
months (a higher low) then down into an October low. This would allow
somewhat higher prices at E and probably move E well into May.
Best case: the wide channel turns up sharply leading to much higher prices
after a minor pullback. This would likely make April the low for the year.
While it is prudent to expect the present down trend in the wide band to
continue until we can see evidence of a turn, I foolishly anticipate that
the April low will hold over the next three months.
Ira, I would be interested in learning if you anticipate a turn up in the
wide channel at this time.
-----Original Message-----
From: Ira Tunik [mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, April 25, 2001 4:03 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] COMP: Hurst envelopes
I don't think you have E. There appears to be a 3 month +/- cycle from low
to
low. If that is E, we could have another substantial drop. Ira
Stan Book wrote:
> Just a quick look at Hurst envelopes
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