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In January I made available to these groups a series of forecasted trend
change dates for the major market indexes for the first quarter of 2001.
These forecasts were also made available on my web site , PivotTrader.com.
The forecasts are derived from my Near Impulse theory which is also
described at the web site.
Now, at the end of the quarter, it is time to summarize the results of the
forecast. This is the third year of public forecasts and reporting of
results Below is a summary of the reliability and accuracy of the forecasts
for the first quarter. Reliability is defined as the number of successful
forecasts divided by the total number of forecasts made. Accuracy is the
numeric average of the difference between the actual pivot dates and the
forecasted dates in trading days. These results are typical of those
accumulated over the past three years.
I present this information to stimulate discussion of an alternate
explanation of market movement to that usually expressed in these groups. I
also present it as a challenge to those that endorse alternate theories such
as astro cycles, static cycles, Fib cycles, Elliott wave, etc. If other
researchers would present documented data on reliability and accuracy of
their methods, the participants would have a firmer basis to understand and
use the information for their benefit.
DJIA
S&P 500 NASDAQ
Number forecasted pivots 11 11
17
Number actual pivots 9
9 13
Reliability 81.8%
81.8% 76.5%
Accuracy (Trading Days) 0.89 0.875
0.54
Jim White
PivotTrader.com
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