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Hi Jim
Saw the trading results in Amgen on your website. Very impressive indeed.
Is this the method that you shall be disclosing in your trading manual?
If so when do you propose to release that product and have you decided on
it's pricing. Would appreciate your response when convenient.
Sincerely
Rakesh Sahgal
At 12:32 PM 4/1/01 -0700, you wrote:
In January I made available to
these groups a series of forecasted trend
change dates for the major market indexes for the first quarter of
2001.
These forecasts were also made available on my web site ,
PivotTrader.com.
The forecasts are derived from my Near Impulse theory which is also
described at the web site.
Now, at the end of the quarter, it is time to summarize the results of
the
forecast. This is the third year of public forecasts and reporting
of
results Below is a summary of the reliability and accuracy of the
forecasts
for the first quarter. Reliability is defined as the number of
successful
forecasts divided by the total number of forecasts made. Accuracy is
the
numeric average of the difference between the actual pivot dates and
the
forecasted dates in trading days. These results are typical of
those
accumulated over the past three years.
I present this information to stimulate discussion of an alternate
explanation of market movement to that usually expressed in these groups.
I
also present it as a challenge to those that endorse alternate theories
such
as astro cycles, static cycles, Fib cycles, Elliott wave, etc. If
other
researchers would present documented data on reliability and accuracy
of
their methods, the participants would have a firmer basis to understand
and
use the information for their benefit.
DJIA
S&P
500
NASDAQ
Number forecasted
pivots
11
11
17
Number actual
pivots
9
9
13
Reliability
81.8%
81.8%
76.5%
Accuracy (Trading
Days)
0.89
0.875
0.54
Jim White
PivotTrader.com
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