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Jim, what would one have made trading 1000 shares of QQQ both long and short
in the first quarter following each one of your signals. If you do not
follow the QQQ per se let us assume each signal was taken from the signals
given by the nasdaq comp. or the nasdaq 100.
Thanks
Dom
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <cycletrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, April 01, 2001 3:32 PM
Subject: [RT] Forecast Summary
> In January I made available to these groups a series of forecasted trend
> change dates for the major market indexes for the first quarter of 2001.
> These forecasts were also made available on my web site , PivotTrader.com.
> The forecasts are derived from my Near Impulse theory which is also
> described at the web site.
>
> Now, at the end of the quarter, it is time to summarize the results of the
> forecast. This is the third year of public forecasts and reporting of
> results Below is a summary of the reliability and accuracy of the
forecasts
> for the first quarter. Reliability is defined as the number of successful
> forecasts divided by the total number of forecasts made. Accuracy is the
> numeric average of the difference between the actual pivot dates and the
> forecasted dates in trading days. These results are typical of those
> accumulated over the past three years.
>
> I present this information to stimulate discussion of an alternate
> explanation of market movement to that usually expressed in these groups.
I
> also present it as a challenge to those that endorse alternate theories
such
> as astro cycles, static cycles, Fib cycles, Elliott wave, etc. If other
> researchers would present documented data on reliability and accuracy of
> their methods, the participants would have a firmer basis to understand
and
> use the information for their benefit.
>
> DJIA
> S&P 500 NASDAQ
>
> Number forecasted pivots 11 11
> 17
>
> Number actual pivots 9
> 9 13
>
> Reliability 81.8%
> 81.8% 76.5%
>
> Accuracy (Trading Days) 0.89
0.875
> 0.54
>
>
> Jim White
> PivotTrader.com
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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>
>
>
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