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Jim,
Thanks for your response. The Forecast Summary of your previous post is
certainly impressive and deserves the scrutiny of any serious trader.
Dom
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, April 01, 2001 8:49 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Forecast Summary
> Dom,
> Of course that depends on the skill of the trader and his risk profile but
> let us assume the trader is satisfied with one point per trade. using my
> simple entry and stop loss rules,the trader would have had 14 profitable
> trades of one point and no losses. So $14,000.00 profit on an average
> investment of about $52,000.00. That is the magic of short term trading
and
> having prior knowledge of the turns. (Entry rule is 1/8 above the previous
> day's high or 1/8 below the previous day's low. Stop loss rule is 1/8
beyond
> the opposite extreme of the entry.)
> Jim
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Dom Perrino <domenick@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, April 01, 2001 1:26 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Forecast Summary
>
>
> > Jim, what would one have made trading 1000 shares of QQQ both long and
> short
> > in the first quarter following each one of your signals. If you do not
> > follow the QQQ per se let us assume each signal was taken from the
signals
> > given by the nasdaq comp. or the nasdaq 100.
> > Thanks
> > Dom
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <cycletrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Sunday, April 01, 2001 3:32 PM
> > Subject: [RT] Forecast Summary
> >
> >
> > > In January I made available to these groups a series of forecasted
trend
> > > change dates for the major market indexes for the first quarter of
2001.
> > > These forecasts were also made available on my web site ,
> PivotTrader.com.
> > > The forecasts are derived from my Near Impulse theory which is also
> > > described at the web site.
> > >
> > > Now, at the end of the quarter, it is time to summarize the results of
> the
> > > forecast. This is the third year of public forecasts and reporting of
> > > results Below is a summary of the reliability and accuracy of the
> > forecasts
> > > for the first quarter. Reliability is defined as the number of
> successful
> > > forecasts divided by the total number of forecasts made. Accuracy is
the
> > > numeric average of the difference between the actual pivot dates and
the
> > > forecasted dates in trading days. These results are typical of those
> > > accumulated over the past three years.
> > >
> > > I present this information to stimulate discussion of an alternate
> > > explanation of market movement to that usually expressed in these
> groups.
> > I
> > > also present it as a challenge to those that endorse alternate
theories
> > such
> > > as astro cycles, static cycles, Fib cycles, Elliott wave, etc. If
other
> > > researchers would present documented data on reliability and accuracy
of
> > > their methods, the participants would have a firmer basis to
understand
> > and
> > > use the information for their benefit.
> > >
> > > DJIA
> > > S&P 500 NASDAQ
> > >
> > > Number forecasted pivots 11
11
> > > 17
> > >
> > > Number actual pivots 9
> > > 9 13
> > >
> > > Reliability 81.8%
> > > 81.8% 76.5%
> > >
> > > Accuracy (Trading Days) 0.89
> > 0.875
> > > 0.54
> > >
> > >
> > > Jim White
> > > PivotTrader.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
>
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