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I am very leary about both DSL and long distance phone companies.
At this time you can call long distance for zip over the internet and there
will be free DSL by April 2000. There are some big changes coming
and what these large companies will do to either buy or get rid of these
sites will not be pretty to watch. Ira
<p>Thomas Beck wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE><style></style>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<div style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><b>From:</b> <a href="mailto:thombek@xxxxxxx"; title="thombek@xxxxxxx">Thomas
Beck</a></div>
<b>To:</b> realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<b>Sent:</b>
Sunday, January 16, 2000 11:23 PM<b>Subject:</b> XDSL</div>
<font face="Arial"><font size=-1>RealTraders</font></font> <font face="Arial"><font size=-1>A
Techno Dude gave me a tip on a sure thing stock. XDSL.
...sure you've all had those.</font></font> <font face="Arial"><font size=-1>The
company has the technology to transmit 400 channels of digital TV, plus
internet, plus telephone over existing copper cable telephone lines. For
those in larger metro areas this may not be a breakthrough but for us in
the outer levels of existense (Idaho) this is great. I've struggled lately
with ISP's, Cable AT&T, DSL etc... (not willing to go satellite yet)...
only to get not available in your area responses.</font></font> <font face="Arial"><font size=-1>The
potential seems large. And the stock is rumored to go to $150 in a year
from it's current $8.</font></font> <font face="Arial"><font size=-1>I'm
always suspicious of techno stocks, but I've also witness'ed their unresonable
explosion into the stratosphere, as well as their sometimes demise into
oblivion.</font></font> <font face="Arial"><font size=-1>Does anyone
know anything on this one???</font></font> <font face="Arial"><font size=-1>No
affiliation, Two years on the Real Traders list</font></font> <font face="Arial"><font size=-1>Tom</font></font> </blockquote>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jan 17 17:40:35 2000
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Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2000 08:14:58 -0800
From: Ira Tunik <ist@xxxxxx>
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Subject: [RT] Re: Predicting vs. reacting was: Bryce, Gann, etc etc.
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Status: O
This is a rather long diatribe so delete it if you are not interested.
The books you bought are excellent and will provide a lot of knowledge about
the markets, options and cycles. The problem is that none of the books will
tell you how to utilize the information in a complete trading system. A
system can be both reactive and predictive. The system that I use never
predicts tops or bottoms. It does predict targets with a high probability
of success. It also provides reasonable stops for any account size. This
system, like any other, is suitable only to the personality of the trader
that can live with the system psychologically. It is not the system, but
the individual, that makes the winning trades. You can give the same system
to 10 different people and you will get 10 different degrees of success. I
and many other experienced traders can probably take almost any system and
trade it profitably because we not only look at the indicators, but
understand what they are telling us. To many traders use indicators
blindly, without any understanding of what they mean or how they should be
used.
If price is above or below a moving average, does it really mean it is
bullish or bearish? No. Because the ADX is going up does it mean that
price is rising? No. Because the stochastic indicator is heading down from
90, does it meant that price will fall? No. Because the CCI has a cross
over, does it mean that there will be a change in the direction of price?
No.
Each of the above indicators and the hundreds of others have a distinct
characteristic that makes them unique. Some indicators are redundant or the
inverse of others. Williams %R is the inverse of Stochastic. The exact
same formula. Why would you use different numbers in one then the other?
Some are trend following and others are reversal. Which is which? Which
will help you and which will confuse you? How many indicators do you really
need to make a decision? I have known successful traders that have used up
to 14 and some that have used none. I don't fall into either group. I use
2. Is that good enough for you? Only you can tell. Will astrology work?
Yes. Do I believe in or use it? No. Do others use it successfully? Yes. Do
I believe in Gann, Eliot, Hurst, or any other guru? Not exactly. I believe
that all have contributed greatly to the ART and SCIENCE of trading, but
that none of their systems will stand alone. One can be highly successful
using just a trend line. Simple is best and easiest. Sorry to get so
carried away. Ira.
cb wrote:
> You guys/gals really believe that beans respond to planets and geometry
> instead of being rather unpredictable depending on crops sizes, weather,
> farm bills etc.?
>
> I looked at a past example from someone saying that rye stopped at 103
> because pluto and mars were in conjunction at 103 deg. and it seems
> crazy. When I see a geometric chart with lines on it, I see something
> that might look neat on the wall but doesn't do anything predictive for
> me, maybe because I don't know the underlying principles.
>
> Then again, I contemplate my depleted trading account, and realize what
> I did in the past was terribly ineffective by method or by money
> management. And I know people like Mr. Winski runs a newsletter that
> have trades that are actually profitable acc. to third party monitoring
> (at least for the 2 years I was looking). So whether the planets help
> these guys isolate cycles in the markets (whether or not the planets per
> se having anything to do with it) or not, something is working (even if
> it's just because they manage trades well, and not due to the entries at
> all).
>
> Since curtailing and now actually suspending trading, I have worked on a
> system which needs testing but involves pretty much routine indicators.
> While i've tried to avoid large amounts of lag, the system is still for
> the most part reactive not predictive - in the sense that it gets on a
> trend or reversal that has occured, rather than trying to predict it.
> And after that for the most part it has only a trailing stop. No
> targets, but there can occassionally be a "loss of signal" exit. If the
> bet was right I'll make a profit. If the bet was wrong, I'll take a
> loss.
>
> I also subscribe to the omega list. To some extent it seems there's a
> gulf between most system traders and chartists. System traders seem to
> be more interested in managing betsize and drawdowns in order maximize
> profits gained by winning trades that their systems almost stumble on.
> (I'm exaggerating. but my point is the average system isn't too smart;
> it sticks it's toe in the water to see if a profit is there). Chartists
> seem to spend a lot more time on predicting. Or at least the ones that
> emphasize "order in the markets", do.
>
> Is this dichotomy (predicting vs. reacting) only in my own mind? Is
> predicting better for rebuilding a tiny account, because the drawdownss
> will be lower?
>
> I just spent almost $200 on 5 books: 2 on money management (Jones,
> Balsara), 1 on options (Natenburg), 1 on candlesticks (Morris), and 1 on
> cycles (Hurst). Should i have gotten Ewave, Gann, and astrological
> materials instead? Miner? Dinapoli or other fibonacci?
>
> Conrad Bowers
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