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You guys/gals really believe that beans respond to planets and geometry
instead of being rather unpredictable depending on crops sizes, weather,
farm bills etc.?
I looked at a past example from someone saying that rye stopped at 103
because pluto and mars were in conjunction at 103 deg. and it seems
crazy. When I see a geometric chart with lines on it, I see something
that might look neat on the wall but doesn't do anything predictive for
me, maybe because I don't know the underlying principles.
Then again, I contemplate my depleted trading account, and realize what
I did in the past was terribly ineffective by method or by money
management. And I know people like Mr. Winski runs a newsletter that
have trades that are actually profitable acc. to third party monitoring
(at least for the 2 years I was looking). So whether the planets help
these guys isolate cycles in the markets (whether or not the planets per
se having anything to do with it) or not, something is working (even if
it's just because they manage trades well, and not due to the entries at
all).
Since curtailing and now actually suspending trading, I have worked on a
system which needs testing but involves pretty much routine indicators.
While i've tried to avoid large amounts of lag, the system is still for
the most part reactive not predictive - in the sense that it gets on a
trend or reversal that has occured, rather than trying to predict it.
And after that for the most part it has only a trailing stop. No
targets, but there can occassionally be a "loss of signal" exit. If the
bet was right I'll make a profit. If the bet was wrong, I'll take a
loss.
I also subscribe to the omega list. To some extent it seems there's a
gulf between most system traders and chartists. System traders seem to
be more interested in managing betsize and drawdowns in order maximize
profits gained by winning trades that their systems almost stumble on.
(I'm exaggerating. but my point is the average system isn't too smart;
it sticks it's toe in the water to see if a profit is there). Chartists
seem to spend a lot more time on predicting. Or at least the ones that
emphasize "order in the markets", do.
Is this dichotomy (predicting vs. reacting) only in my own mind? Is
predicting better for rebuilding a tiny account, because the drawdownss
will be lower?
I just spent almost $200 on 5 books: 2 on money management (Jones,
Balsara), 1 on options (Natenburg), 1 on candlesticks (Morris), and 1 on
cycles (Hurst). Should i have gotten Ewave, Gann, and astrological
materials instead? Miner? Dinapoli or other fibonacci?
Conrad Bowers
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