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If you want to read some contemporary stories of everyman getting into the
market, perma-bear Bill Fleckenstein usually has a story sent to him by his
readers in his column.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/contrarian/
Here is the one from today's (Friday) column.
Fleckenstein wrote:
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In the mania chronicles... Here's one from an SI thread:
"Broke down today and had to play again... Cracked out the credit card...
put $100 into my Index Trade account.. turned it into $245 and pulled back
the starting $100.. 145 percent today."
The second note is from a thoughtful broker who came up with the term
"brokers as bookies." This illuminates the extreme difficulty that
responsible people are having, trying to do the right thing. I thought it
was a good representation of a day in the life of a rational person in the
mania.
"I met a referral today and after the market closed and in my utter
frustration laid it on the line. I said basically `you want me to tell you
what you want to hear, buy tech, tech , tech, but I won't. We are in the
midst of the greatest speculative bubble in history, which has rendered my
services useless. Why would you need me to tell you to buy Janus 20 or some
hot stock when your son, or brother or co-worker could do it for free? Talk
about balance, diversification, value means nothing so why hire an advisor
and pay him when logical analysis is no longer needed in the new era? Only
when this bubble breaks will you see what I am talking about, so in essence
I think you would be better off without me since most 10-year-olds could
outperform anyone with 10 years of experience and get those expected
40-percent-a-week returns that seem to be so common.'
"Needless to say, I didn't get the sale."
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Kent
-----Original Message-----
From: Jimmy Snowden <jsnowden@xxxxxxxx>
To: .Omega List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, March 10, 2000 10:21 AM
Subject: Unidentified subject!
It has been many years since I studied the activities leading up to the 1929
crash, but I do remember the milkman, barber and construction worker all had
lots to say about stocks. The stocks that became hot in the final year or
so were much like our NASDAQ stocks and they soared beyond reason much more
than the blue chips which were also flying high. Everyday I hear something
from a person that normally wouldn't have an interest in the market. The
fellow that replaced the air handler last week had a big tip for me.
Perhaps when the really small cap stocks soar we will see the end of this
bull. I don't follow those little companies so I would be interested in any
views from those that do.
I doubt that 1929 will be duplicated and the charts produced recently show
that it isn't happening now. The market tends to no repeat the last crash
but more an older crash. 1987 was not a crash as in the 1929 style but
rather a very short panic without the devastation or deadly margin calls of
1929 or other major bear markets.
Just my thoughts.
Jimmy
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