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Philip,
I just wrote a 1,000 word article on a
similar subject: Tillson's T3's. It will be in the March issue
of Lind-Waldock's newsletter. As soon as their lawyers/liars give me the
green light, I will make it available to the forum (but, maybe I can forward you
my notes...without getting in trouble).
As many know, Tim's adaptive moving averages (see
attachment for TASC January '98 article) are far superior to many of the average
variations you mentioned (and far superior to what certain vendors, in my fine
city, will SELL you). I'm not knocking MACD or Jurik's
"stuff" or anyone's work, Tim's work is simply better. Why? His
averages exhibit the desirable traits of being very "smooth", but they
are NOT sensitive to random noise. The T3 modifies the "lag and
overshoot" and tends to eliminate the whipsawing that many traders experience
using simple moving averages. A real thing of beauty: very smooth,
but sensitive to significant directional changes (see attachments).
I trade with a couple dozen people using
variations of the T3's. Most of us use them to mechanically scalp points
from the emini S&P market. Although we are finding new and better ways
to apply these adaptive moving averages, one of my brand new favorites is to
replicate the T3 formula and create a T5 (five periods, instead of three).
Then, subtract the T5 from the T3 (which, of course, calculates the
difference between the averages). It creates a stunning momentum
oscillator. We monitor it all day and apply it to ten minute
candles.
Philip, if you need any other help...you know how
to reach me. I hope this helps.
Take care,
Uncle Steve
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, February 23, 2005 8:30
PM
Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Early
trend stages
Greetings All,
By the time many of the more
popular trend indicators kick in (moving
averages of various flavors and
combinations, the MACD, the ADX and even
the PDI/MDI) the trend itself can
often be nicely underway. This seems to
apply especially when price action
takes a sharp turn, as in a "V" bottom
or an inverted "V" top. The numbers
feeding into the calculation of the
indicators cause a lag. Gradual
changes in direction don't seem to pose a
problem.
I'm not trying
to call tops and bottoms, but even a minor jump on
conventional trend
indicators would be helpful. To date, my efforts to get
a handle on the
initial phase of trends after sharp market turns have not
been rewarding.
I can't seem to conceptualize it. Can anyone point me in
the direction of
published thoughts on how one could approach this kind of
market action?
Or, would you be willing to share some basic observations of
your own? I
can't imagine that this question hasn't occupied many traders
at one time
or another.
If I should simply "fugeddaboudit," well, that's a
possibility too. I may
be cross-posting this inquiry. My apologies in
advance.
Internal Virus Database is out-of-date.
Checked by AVG
Anti-Virus.
Version: 7.0.300 / Virus Database: 265.8.6 - Release Date:
2/7/2005
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