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JMO, but I think you're trying to solve a problem that isn't as
important as you think it is.
The kind of abrupt (and genuine) trend-reversals you're talking about
rarely occur. There's nearly always a re-test of the extreme-point
high/low before an important trend changes for good. So, you're
trying to solve a problem that hardly ever happens instead of
focusing on more-common money-making opportunities.
On the rare occasions when a sharp (and genuine) trend-reversal does
happen, it's a sign of an important change in that market. The
amount of the new trend that you think you're "missing" is small by
comparison to the size of the move to come. The problem here is not
a lagging forecast but drastically underestimating the size of the
new trend.
FWIW.
Luck,
Sebastian
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Philip Schmitz <pschmi02@xxxx>
wrote:
>
> Greetings All,
>
> By the time many of the more popular trend indicators kick in
(moving
> averages of various flavors and combinations, the MACD, the ADX and
even
> the PDI/MDI) the trend itself can often be nicely underway. This
seems to
> apply especially when price action takes a sharp turn, as in a "V"
bottom
> or an inverted "V" top. The numbers feeding into the calculation of
the
> indicators cause a lag. Gradual changes in direction don't seem to
pose a
> problem.
>
> I'm not trying to call tops and bottoms, but even a minor jump on
> conventional trend indicators would be helpful. To date, my efforts
to get
> a handle on the initial phase of trends after sharp market turns
have not
> been rewarding. I can't seem to conceptualize it. Can anyone point
me in
> the direction of published thoughts on how one could approach this
kind of
> market action? Or, would you be willing to share some basic
observations of
> your own? I can't imagine that this question hasn't occupied many
traders
> at one time or another.
>
> If I should simply "fugeddaboudit," well, that's a possibility too.
I may
> be cross-posting this inquiry. My apologies in advance.
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