----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, February 24, 2005 12:40
PM
Subject: Re: [EquisMetaStock Group] Early
trend stages
Philip,
I just wrote a 1,000 word article on a
similar subject: Tillson's T3's. It will be in the March issue
of Lind-Waldock's newsletter. As soon as their lawyers/liars give me the
green light, I will make it available to the forum (but, maybe I can forward
you my notes...without getting in trouble).
As many know, Tim's adaptive moving averages (see
attachment for TASC January '98 article) are far superior to many of the
average variations you mentioned (and far superior to what certain vendors, in
my fine city, will SELL you). I'm not knocking MACD or Jurik's
"stuff" or anyone's work, Tim's work is simply better. Why?
His averages exhibit the desirable traits of being very "smooth", but they
are NOT sensitive to random noise. The T3 modifies the "lag and
overshoot" and tends to eliminate the whipsawing that many traders experience
using simple moving averages. A real thing of beauty: very smooth,
but sensitive to significant directional changes (see
attachments).
I trade with a couple dozen people using
variations of the T3's. Most of us use them to mechanically scalp points
from the emini S&P market. Although we are finding new and better
ways to apply these adaptive moving averages, one of my brand new favorites is
to replicate the T3 formula and create a T5 (five periods, instead of
three). Then, subtract the T5 from the T3 (which, of
course, calculates the difference between the averages). It creates
a stunning momentum oscillator. We monitor it all day and apply it to
ten minute candles.
Philip, if you need any other help...you know how
to reach me. I hope this helps.
Take care,
Uncle Steve
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, February 23, 2005 8:30
PM
Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Early
trend stages
Greetings All,
By the time many of the more
popular trend indicators kick in (moving
averages of various flavors and
combinations, the MACD, the ADX and even
the PDI/MDI) the trend itself
can often be nicely underway. This seems to
apply especially when price
action takes a sharp turn, as in a "V" bottom
or an inverted "V" top.
The numbers feeding into the calculation of the
indicators cause a lag.
Gradual changes in direction don't seem to pose a
problem.
I'm
not trying to call tops and bottoms, but even a minor jump on
conventional trend indicators would be helpful. To date, my efforts to
get
a handle on the initial phase of trends after sharp market turns
have not
been rewarding. I can't seem to conceptualize it. Can anyone
point me in
the direction of published thoughts on how one could
approach this kind of
market action? Or, would you be willing to share
some basic observations of
your own? I can't imagine that this question
hasn't occupied many traders
at one time or another.
If I should
simply "fugeddaboudit," well, that's a possibility too. I may
be
cross-posting this inquiry. My apologies in
advance.
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