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--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Book" <book@xxxx> wrote:
> I would like to introduce myself to this group.
>
>
>
> I am a retired manager of a major U.S. corporation. I was educated
in the
> fields of mathematics, electrical engineering and computer science
and I
> have had an interest in stock market analysis for nearly 20 years.
>
>
>
> I believe my background skills have given me a unique insight into
technical
> analysis, allowing me to look at and understand the mathematics
behind
> technical analysis formulas, take an unbiased common sense approach
to the
> results of these formulas and develop a system that does not
succumb to the
> short falls of Technical Analysis.
>
>
>
> I have been studying technical analysis in the stock market since
1987,
> testing and analyzing hundreds of formulas and charts. I began by
using
> commercial software with built in formulas, then wrote my own
formulas and
> finally wrote my own software and formulas.
>
>
>
> I am now writing a book "An Analysis of Technical Analysis", which
is far
> from complete but there is some very relevant information that I
will point
> you to a little later.
>
>
>
> I have also been lurking and contributing on many forums over the
last 10
> years or so, and I have made several observations.
>
>
>
> 1. The questions are generally the same, form year to year. Some
> technical question on how to get a formula or program to work and
some
> general questions on how to make a system that really works. The
technical
> questions are usually answered in detail but the system questions
are rarely
> answered except in the most general terms.
>
> 2. There are usually one or two Gurus who expound "I have
developed a
> system that really works well" but they never give explicit details
on how
> this system works and they never give actual trades until well
after the
> trades have happened. This gives way too much opportunity
to "adjust" the
> figures. In other words, they never prove themselves.
>
> 3. After a period of time, a year or less, these Gurus disappear
from
> the scene. Did they lose all their money, or can't they just keep
up the
> BS?
>
>
>
> Why is this the case? I will answer this a little later.
>
>
>
> First I want to say that I have created a "commercial" market timing
> website, but I will not advertise or even mention the name here so
that the
> moderator of this group won't ban me. My main concern is to get
some very
> pertinent market timing information to those of you who are really
> interested in trying to time the market.
>
>
>
> Let me start out this way. Technical analysis (using mathematical
formulas
> only) DOES NOT WORK, WILL NOT WORK, AND YOU WILL JUST LOSE YOUR
MONEY!
>
>
>
> How can I possibly say such a thing, especially when I said I own a
market
> timing web site?
>
>
>
> I said "Technical analysis (using mathematical formulas only)".
> Mathematical formulas, no mater how simple or complex, try to match
a
> recurrence, or pattern, in the market. They simply do not predict
anything!
>
>
>
>
> Experts contend that the market is "random"
> <http://www.timeyourfunds.com/book/random%20walk%20theory.htm> and
> "efficient"
> <http://www.timeyourfunds.com/book/efficient%20market%
20hypothesis.htm> .
> We all know that random events cannot be predicted and if something
is
> really efficient there are no disparities to capitalize on. These
two
> factors alone tell you that the market is impossible, or nearly
impossible
> to predict, using mathematical formulas.
>
>
>
> If you would like to learn a little more about technical analysis,
what
> works and what doesn't, and what you REALLY need to look for you
can read
> more of my upcoming book. The start is here "An
> <http://www.timeyourfunds.com/book/An%20Analysis%20of%20Technical%
20Analysis
> .htm> Analysis of Technical Analysis" or you can get the quick and
dirty
> "summary <http://www.timeyourfunds.com/book/summary.htm> " here.
>
>
>
> It won't cost you a cent, but it might save you several!
>
>
>
> Thanks for reading.
>
>
>
> Larry
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