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dear manohohman,
i too didn't take all from the so-called gurus as
gospel truth. but on the other hand, fundamental
analysis was never accurate either... some people even
scorned at the nobel laurettes with their attachment
to the emh.
as an economist i have developed my own way of
marrying economics with charting - now i am more of an
"economic chartist" or a "charting economist". i have
been espounding the idea of a "bermuda triangle
analysis" - if u care to pay a visit see some of my
analyses at http://arifinedgearticles.tripod.com -
comments are welcomed. the last article in aug 30 i
wrote a piece on "flirting with the us$60 barrier?" -
well u know what's happening to the oil prices now?
i hope i'm proven right, as i have done in the past
fro the klse market.
cao, keep in touch.
regards,
arifin
--- manohohman <no_reply@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> Larry, Larry, Larry, call me back when you get a
> track record--an
> audited one.
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Book"
> <book@xxxx> wrote:
> > I would like to introduce myself to this group.
> >
> >
> >
> > I am a retired manager of a major U.S.
> corporation. I was educated
> in the
> > fields of mathematics, electrical engineering and
> computer science
> and I
> > have had an interest in stock market analysis for
> nearly 20 years.
> >
> >
> >
> > I believe my background skills have given me a
> unique insight into
> technical
> > analysis, allowing me to look at and understand
> the mathematics
> behind
> > technical analysis formulas, take an unbiased
> common sense approach
> to the
> > results of these formulas and develop a system
> that does not
> succumb to the
> > short falls of Technical Analysis.
> >
> >
> >
> > I have been studying technical analysis in the
> stock market since
> 1987,
> > testing and analyzing hundreds of formulas and
> charts. I began by
> using
> > commercial software with built in formulas, then
> wrote my own
> formulas and
> > finally wrote my own software and formulas.
> >
> >
> >
> > I am now writing a book "An Analysis of Technical
> Analysis", which
> is far
> > from complete but there is some very relevant
> information that I
> will point
> > you to a little later.
> >
> >
> >
> > I have also been lurking and contributing on many
> forums over the
> last 10
> > years or so, and I have made several observations.
> >
> >
> >
> > 1. The questions are generally the same, form year
> to year. Some
> > technical question on how to get a formula or
> program to work and
> some
> > general questions on how to make a system that
> really works. The
> technical
> > questions are usually answered in detail but the
> system questions
> are rarely
> > answered except in the most general terms.
> >
> > 2. There are usually one or two Gurus who expound
> "I have
> developed a
> > system that really works well" but they never give
> explicit details
> on how
> > this system works and they never give actual
> trades until well
> after the
> > trades have happened. This gives way too much
> opportunity
> to "adjust" the
> > figures. In other words, they never prove
> themselves.
> >
> > 3. After a period of time, a year or less, these
> Gurus disappear
> from
> > the scene. Did they lose all their money, or
> can't they just keep
> up the
> > BS?
> >
> >
> >
> > Why is this the case? I will answer this a little
> later.
> >
> >
> >
> > First I want to say that I have created a
> "commercial" market timing
> > website, but I will not advertise or even mention
> the name here so
> that the
> > moderator of this group won't ban me. My main
> concern is to get
> some very
> > pertinent market timing information to those of
> you who are really
> > interested in trying to time the market.
> >
> >
> >
> > Let me start out this way. Technical analysis
> (using mathematical
> formulas
> > only) DOES NOT WORK, WILL NOT WORK, AND YOU WILL
> JUST LOSE YOUR
> MONEY!
> >
> >
> >
> > How can I possibly say such a thing, especially
> when I said I own a
> market
> > timing web site?
> >
> >
> >
> > I said "Technical analysis (using mathematical
> formulas only)".
> > Mathematical formulas, no mater how simple or
> complex, try to match
> a
> > recurrence, or pattern, in the market. They
> simply do not predict
> anything!
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Experts contend that the market is "random"
> >
>
<http://www.timeyourfunds.com/book/random%20walk%20theory.htm>
> and
> > "efficient"
> >
>
<http://www.timeyourfunds.com/book/efficient%20market%
> 20hypothesis.htm> .
> > We all know that random events cannot be predicted
> and if something
> is
> > really efficient there are no disparities to
> capitalize on. These
> two
> > factors alone tell you that the market is
> impossible, or nearly
> impossible
> > to predict, using mathematical formulas.
> >
> >
> >
> > If you would like to learn a little more about
> technical analysis,
> what
> > works and what doesn't, and what you REALLY need
> to look for you
> can read
> > more of my upcoming book. The start is here "An
> >
>
<http://www.timeyourfunds.com/book/An%20Analysis%20of%20Technical%
> 20Analysis
> > .htm> Analysis of Technical Analysis" or you can
> get the quick and
> dirty
> > "summary
> <http://www.timeyourfunds.com/book/summary.htm> "
> here.
> >
> >
> >
> > It won't cost you a cent, but it might save you
> several!
> >
> >
>
=== message truncated ===
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