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Matt,
I think this idea goes against the grain of all TA...
Have a look at Nikkei index futures. Nikkei has had a freefall back in 1990
and it never went back. I was listening to CNBC the other day... they were
saying Japan is _on the verge_ (!!!) of recession and stock could NOW start
to be going down!
Would you be ready to hold on to your strategy for more than 10 years, and
that without ANY guarantee it will ever make any profit? (There is no such
guarantee. Future will not be the same. Hell... 10 years from now there even
can be NO markets as we know now).
Buy&Hold is just another way to play Russian roulette. Don't fall for it.
(JMHO)
All the best
Yarroll
>
> I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on the following system.
> Assuming one has the necessary capitalization and patience, would it work?
>
> Rules
>
> 1. Go long only.
> 2. Buy the front month Naz emini at 1800, 1700, 1600, 1500, 1400,
> etc. all the way down or all the way
> up!
> 3. Sell each contract only when it reaches a 100 point profit.
> 4. Rollover if necessary.
>
> Obviously if one had begun this strategy when the Naz was at 4000
> or 5000, one would have a lot of
> still open positions.
> But given where we are now, doesn't the risk/reward seem reasonable?
>
> I seem to remember that a similar strategy was pursued with gold
> and silver futures in the 1970's.
>
> Buying and holding the Naz emini has the advantages of
> diversification and leverage. I know a lot of
> people
> who are playing a similar game with the QQQ's, but they don't
> have quite the leverage.
>
> If the long, long term trend is NOT up, is this strategy still viable?
>
> Do you think that slippage from rollover's will have too great an impact?
>
> Best regards,
> Matthew Kratter
>
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