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Matt:
You are correct.
After the 1929 crash it took 20 years for the Dow to reach the levels or
1929.
Lionel Issen
lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
----- Original Message -----
From: "Yarroll" <komin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, July 13, 2001 6:14 AM
Subject: RE: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
> Matt,
>
> I think this idea goes against the grain of all TA...
>
> Have a look at Nikkei index futures. Nikkei has had a freefall back in
1990
> and it never went back. I was listening to CNBC the other day... they were
> saying Japan is _on the verge_ (!!!) of recession and stock could NOW
start
> to be going down!
>
> Would you be ready to hold on to your strategy for more than 10 years, and
> that without ANY guarantee it will ever make any profit? (There is no such
> guarantee. Future will not be the same. Hell... 10 years from now there
even
> can be NO markets as we know now).
>
> Buy&Hold is just another way to play Russian roulette. Don't fall for it.
> (JMHO)
>
> All the best
> Yarroll
>
>
> >
> > I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on the following system.
> > Assuming one has the necessary capitalization and patience, would it
work?
> >
> > Rules
> >
> > 1. Go long only.
> > 2. Buy the front month Naz emini at 1800, 1700, 1600, 1500, 1400,
> > etc. all the way down or all the way
> > up!
> > 3. Sell each contract only when it reaches a 100 point profit.
> > 4. Rollover if necessary.
> >
> > Obviously if one had begun this strategy when the Naz was at 4000
> > or 5000, one would have a lot of
> > still open positions.
> > But given where we are now, doesn't the risk/reward seem reasonable?
> >
> > I seem to remember that a similar strategy was pursued with gold
> > and silver futures in the 1970's.
> >
> > Buying and holding the Naz emini has the advantages of
> > diversification and leverage. I know a lot of
> > people
> > who are playing a similar game with the QQQ's, but they don't
> > have quite the leverage.
> >
> > If the long, long term trend is NOT up, is this strategy still viable?
> >
> > Do you think that slippage from rollover's will have too great an
impact?
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Matthew Kratter
> >
>
>
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