|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Michael,
Could you explain how one might calculate this observation?
I.e., I believe you, but where does one get the "inflation" statistics and how
does one do the math??
Best regards,
Matthew Kratter
Michael Robb wrote:
> If you subtract for the purposeful destruction in purchasing power of the
> dollar (often misnamed inflation), the DOW average is not still not equal
> to the 1929 high, at 5 1/4%.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, July 13, 2001 10:02 PM
> Subject: Re: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
>
> > Matt:
> > You are correct.
> > After the 1929 crash it took 20 years for the Dow to reach the levels or
> > 1929.
> > Lionel Issen
> > lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Yarroll" <komin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, July 13, 2001 6:14 AM
> > Subject: RE: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
> >
> >
> > > Matt,
> > >
> > > I think this idea goes against the grain of all TA...
> > >
> > > Have a look at Nikkei index futures. Nikkei has had a freefall back in
> > 1990
> > > and it never went back. I was listening to CNBC the other day... they
> were
> > > saying Japan is _on the verge_ (!!!) of recession and stock could NOW
> > start
> > > to be going down!
> > >
> > > Would you be ready to hold on to your strategy for more than 10 years,
> and
> > > that without ANY guarantee it will ever make any profit? (There is no
> such
> > > guarantee. Future will not be the same. Hell... 10 years from now there
> > even
> > > can be NO markets as we know now).
> > >
> > > Buy&Hold is just another way to play Russian roulette. Don't fall for
> it.
> > > (JMHO)
> > >
> > > All the best
> > > Yarroll
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on the following system.
> > > > Assuming one has the necessary capitalization and patience, would it
> > work?
> > > >
> > > > Rules
> > > >
> > > > 1. Go long only.
> > > > 2. Buy the front month Naz emini at 1800, 1700, 1600, 1500, 1400,
> > > > etc. all the way down or all the way
> > > > up!
> > > > 3. Sell each contract only when it reaches a 100 point profit.
> > > > 4. Rollover if necessary.
> > > >
> > > > Obviously if one had begun this strategy when the Naz was at 4000
> > > > or 5000, one would have a lot of
> > > > still open positions.
> > > > But given where we are now, doesn't the risk/reward seem reasonable?
> > > >
> > > > I seem to remember that a similar strategy was pursued with gold
> > > > and silver futures in the 1970's.
> > > >
> > > > Buying and holding the Naz emini has the advantages of
> > > > diversification and leverage. I know a lot of
> > > > people
> > > > who are playing a similar game with the QQQ's, but they don't
> > > > have quite the leverage.
> > > >
> > > > If the long, long term trend is NOT up, is this strategy still viable?
> > > >
> > > > Do you think that slippage from rollover's will have too great an
> > impact?
> > > >
> > > > Best regards,
> > > > Matthew Kratter
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> >
|