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Usually, when you look at the increases in the money supply ( M 3 ) for any
ten year span, you find a near doubling, or even more. I only used 5 1/4%
because that takes a 300 DOW in 1929 to over 10,600.
If you look at recent M numbers you see a dilution of purchasing power in
the dollar of over 7% for 10 year periods.
Calculating off actual prices can be misleading, because the natural process
of enterprise, left to its own devices, is a rise in quality and a decline
in price; as Smith said; "...a plentiful supply of goods and services at low
prices equals prosperity".
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, July 14, 2001 1:36 PM
Subject: Re: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
> I don't think that this is the right approach.
>
> Take the DOW for the 1929 high and multiply it by the differences in the
> cost of living. We can guesstimate the difference by looking at selected
> salaries and products. My guesstimate is about 6000 and 15000 for the DOW.
> This puts the present DOW value roughly around the same level as in 1929.
>
> Since my data is very sparse, I'd appreciate other comments on this.
>
> Lionel Issen
> lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Michael Robb" <mlrobb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, July 14, 2001 8:50 AM
> Subject: Re: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
>
>
> > If you subtract for the purposeful destruction in purchasing power of
the
> > dollar (often misnamed inflation), the DOW average is not still not
> equal
> > to the 1929 high, at 5 1/4%.
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, July 13, 2001 10:02 PM
> > Subject: Re: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
> >
> >
> > > Matt:
> > > You are correct.
> > > After the 1929 crash it took 20 years for the Dow to reach the levels
or
> > > 1929.
> > > Lionel Issen
> > > lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Yarroll" <komin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, July 13, 2001 6:14 AM
> > > Subject: RE: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
> > >
> > >
> > > > Matt,
> > > >
> > > > I think this idea goes against the grain of all TA...
> > > >
> > > > Have a look at Nikkei index futures. Nikkei has had a freefall back
in
> > > 1990
> > > > and it never went back. I was listening to CNBC the other day...
they
> > were
> > > > saying Japan is _on the verge_ (!!!) of recession and stock could
NOW
> > > start
> > > > to be going down!
> > > >
> > > > Would you be ready to hold on to your strategy for more than 10
years,
> > and
> > > > that without ANY guarantee it will ever make any profit? (There is
no
> > such
> > > > guarantee. Future will not be the same. Hell... 10 years from now
> there
> > > even
> > > > can be NO markets as we know now).
> > > >
> > > > Buy&Hold is just another way to play Russian roulette. Don't fall
for
> > it.
> > > > (JMHO)
> > > >
> > > > All the best
> > > > Yarroll
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on the following system.
> > > > > Assuming one has the necessary capitalization and patience, would
it
> > > work?
> > > > >
> > > > > Rules
> > > > >
> > > > > 1. Go long only.
> > > > > 2. Buy the front month Naz emini at 1800, 1700, 1600, 1500, 1400,
> > > > > etc. all the way down or all the way
> > > > > up!
> > > > > 3. Sell each contract only when it reaches a 100 point profit.
> > > > > 4. Rollover if necessary.
> > > > >
> > > > > Obviously if one had begun this strategy when the Naz was at 4000
> > > > > or 5000, one would have a lot of
> > > > > still open positions.
> > > > > But given where we are now, doesn't the risk/reward seem
reasonable?
> > > > >
> > > > > I seem to remember that a similar strategy was pursued with gold
> > > > > and silver futures in the 1970's.
> > > > >
> > > > > Buying and holding the Naz emini has the advantages of
> > > > > diversification and leverage. I know a lot of
> > > > > people
> > > > > who are playing a similar game with the QQQ's, but they don't
> > > > > have quite the leverage.
> > > > >
> > > > > If the long, long term trend is NOT up, is this strategy still
> viable?
> > > > >
> > > > > Do you think that slippage from rollover's will have too great an
> > > impact?
> > > > >
> > > > > Best regards,
> > > > > Matthew Kratter
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
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