|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I don't think that this is the right approach.
Take the DOW for the 1929 high and multiply it by the differences in the
cost of living. We can guesstimate the difference by looking at selected
salaries and products. My guesstimate is about 6000 and 15000 for the DOW.
This puts the present DOW value roughly around the same level as in 1929.
Since my data is very sparse, I'd appreciate other comments on this.
Lionel Issen
lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Robb" <mlrobb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, July 14, 2001 8:50 AM
Subject: Re: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
> If you subtract for the purposeful destruction in purchasing power of the
> dollar (often misnamed inflation), the DOW average is not still not
equal
> to the 1929 high, at 5 1/4%.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, July 13, 2001 10:02 PM
> Subject: Re: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
>
>
> > Matt:
> > You are correct.
> > After the 1929 crash it took 20 years for the Dow to reach the levels or
> > 1929.
> > Lionel Issen
> > lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Yarroll" <komin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, July 13, 2001 6:14 AM
> > Subject: RE: Naz 100 futures buy and hold system
> >
> >
> > > Matt,
> > >
> > > I think this idea goes against the grain of all TA...
> > >
> > > Have a look at Nikkei index futures. Nikkei has had a freefall back in
> > 1990
> > > and it never went back. I was listening to CNBC the other day... they
> were
> > > saying Japan is _on the verge_ (!!!) of recession and stock could NOW
> > start
> > > to be going down!
> > >
> > > Would you be ready to hold on to your strategy for more than 10 years,
> and
> > > that without ANY guarantee it will ever make any profit? (There is no
> such
> > > guarantee. Future will not be the same. Hell... 10 years from now
there
> > even
> > > can be NO markets as we know now).
> > >
> > > Buy&Hold is just another way to play Russian roulette. Don't fall for
> it.
> > > (JMHO)
> > >
> > > All the best
> > > Yarroll
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on the following system.
> > > > Assuming one has the necessary capitalization and patience, would it
> > work?
> > > >
> > > > Rules
> > > >
> > > > 1. Go long only.
> > > > 2. Buy the front month Naz emini at 1800, 1700, 1600, 1500, 1400,
> > > > etc. all the way down or all the way
> > > > up!
> > > > 3. Sell each contract only when it reaches a 100 point profit.
> > > > 4. Rollover if necessary.
> > > >
> > > > Obviously if one had begun this strategy when the Naz was at 4000
> > > > or 5000, one would have a lot of
> > > > still open positions.
> > > > But given where we are now, doesn't the risk/reward seem reasonable?
> > > >
> > > > I seem to remember that a similar strategy was pursued with gold
> > > > and silver futures in the 1970's.
> > > >
> > > > Buying and holding the Naz emini has the advantages of
> > > > diversification and leverage. I know a lot of
> > > > people
> > > > who are playing a similar game with the QQQ's, but they don't
> > > > have quite the leverage.
> > > >
> > > > If the long, long term trend is NOT up, is this strategy still
viable?
> > > >
> > > > Do you think that slippage from rollover's will have too great an
> > impact?
> > > >
> > > > Best regards,
> > > > Matthew Kratter
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
|